Although the growth rate is slowing, global population went over the 6 billion mark last fall and could reach 9.4 billion by 2050. In The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors, political scientist Brian Nichiporuk discusses which demographic trends pose international security concerns, analyzes their security implications and, considers what the U.S. should do in response.

Based on fertility rates, Nichiporuk categorizes states and the sources of their military power into three groups: developing states that continue to have high rates, such as Nigeria and many other African nations; developing countries that have slashed their fertility rates but are still a generation away from population stabilization, such as Brazil and India; and developed nations in Europe and East Asia whose populations are static or declining. High growth states tend to base their security establishments on sheer manpower, he observes, while low growth states lean towards strategies that stress capital and technology.

Important changes in the nature of conflict are likely to flow from such demographic trends as increasing urbanization, massive population migrations, ethnic diasporas, and pressures on water and other renewable resources, the author finds. Long established factors, such as ethnic integration, can also spark fighting.

The study was conducted by RAND's Population Matters project and by the RAND Arroyo Center, a federally funded research and development center. The Population Matters project is funded by grants from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation. The Arroyo Center is sponsored by the United States Army.

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