In a new RAND study, two leading analysts of Korean and Asian affairs suggest that this is largely wishful thinking. "It would no doubt be vastly preferable if a transformation in the North unfolded gradually and free of major violence or internal upheaval," observe analysts Jonathan D. Pollack and Chung Min Lee. "But the possibility of such a benign outcome seems highly remote."

In Preparing for Korean Unification: Scenarios & Implications, the authors examine four alternative ways in which Korea's political future could develop. They also identify the characteristics, potential indicators and possible variations for each of these prospects, and discuss their operational implications for the U.S. Army, the study's sponsor. Although they probe the outlook for peaceful North-South integration, Pollack and Lee devote the bulk of their analysis to the three scenarios they find most plausible--the collapse of the North and its absorption by South Korea, unification through armed conflict between the two regimes, and external intervention.

Pyongyang faces stark choices in trying to halt its economic implosion. If the leadership attempts major, market-oriented reforms, the country will likely face massive socioeconomic and political disruption. Short of this, however, the economy will decline to a point that undercuts the regime's survival. In the short term, the authors suggest, the North will likely try to glean enough foreign assistance to muddle through without substantial internal changes. The longer-term prospects, however, are for a descending spiral that moves from the current stage of economic and political atrophy through economic breakdown, political instability, regime breakdown, regime and/or state collapse, and conflict or absorption.

Pollack is senior advisor for international policy at RAND. Chung Min Lee is a RAND consultant and professor of international relations at Yonsei University in Seoul.

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