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News Release
FOR RELEASE
August 26, 2002
RAND REPORT SAYS INTERNET UNLIKELY TO SPARK MAJOR POLITICAL CHANGE IN CHINA IN NEAR FUTURE
WASHINGTON - Contrary to some predictions, the Internet is unlikely to spark major political change in China in the near future, according to a RAND report issued today.
The report, which is one of the most thorough analyses ever of Internet use by Chinese dissidents and China's response, found that the government's crackdown on dissidents is succeeding in cyberspace. As a result, while the Internet may ultimately support change, this will more probably occur in an evolutionary manner.
Titled You've Got Dissent, the report was produced by two RAND centers: The International Security and Defense Policy Center and the Center for Asia Pacific Policy. Michael Chase and James Mulvenon, both RAND analysts, authored the report.
The Chinese government has successfully stifled the spread of Internet-based dissent primarily by employing old "Leninist techniques," according to the RAND report. These techniques include strict government regulations, surveillance, arrests, confiscation of equipment, and the use of informants. At least 25 people have been arrested in the past two years because of their on-line activities, according to the RAND report.
There also is evidence that the Chinese government is using the Internet for its own political purposes, spreading criticism of dissidents electronically and bombarding dissidents' e-mail addresses with thousands of bogus messages.
"Predictions that the Internet would bring revolutionary political change to China were exaggerated," Chase said. "The Chinese government's attempts to promote self-censorship are succeeding. The Internet is likely to support change, but it will probably be evolutionary."
The use of the Internet has spread quickly in the People's Republic of China, growing from about 1 million users in October 1997 to more than 33 million by January 2002. Dissident political groups have adopted Internet communications, using e-mail and bulletin board sites as a way to quickly and discretely spread information and ideas.
Dissident tactics include "Internet guerilla warfare" - spamming e-mail messages to large groups of people, sometimes including government leaders. The use of large distribution lists and different originating e-mail addresses provides recipients with the credibility to deny that they requested the information if they are questioned by government officials.
There are some notable examples of dissident political success aided by Internet communications. In April 1999, between 10,000 and 15,000 supporters of the Falungong movement appeared unannounced at a protest in Beijing. The event reportedly was organized largely through the use of the Internet and wireless phones.
Dissidents who have fled China also use the Internet to remain active in the nation's political life. They have created Web sites that carry news and commentary, and they e-mail electronic magazines to an audience claimed to include as many as 1 million addresses.
On-line dissidents are challenged by the demographics of Chinese Internet users, most of whom are young, well-educated men who live in eastern cities. Less than 2 percent of Chinese Internet users are rural peasants, the demographic group that makes up the bulk of the nation's population.
Fissures in the dissident community present further challenges. "Enhanced communication does not always further the dissident cause," Mulvenon said. "In some cases, it serves as a potent new forum for discord and rivalry among various dissident factions."
Because China is committed to expanding its use of technology as a cornerstone of economic development and global prestige, the Internet is likely to become available to a wider segment of the nation's population in the future, the RAND researchers predict.
According to the RAND report, as the use of the Internet expands across Chinese society, the government will have a harder time suppressing information, making it easier for dissidents to expand their efforts and perhaps push the country toward gradual pluralization and eventually maybe even democracy.
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