NSRD Publications Archive - 2013
This study explores how a nuclear-armed Iran would behave and what this would entail for the United States and its main regional allies. It analyzes the Islamic Republic's ideology, motivations, and national security doctrine; examines a nuclear-armed Iran's potential policies toward Saudi Arabia and the GCC; discusses its potential behavior toward Israel; explores its relations with terrorist groups; and presents key findings.
Deterrence is possible only when others have at least a good idea of possible U.S. military reprisals, but cyberattack capabilities resist such demonstration. This report explores ways they can be and under what circumstances, then goes on to examine the difficulties and the drawbacks. Such "brandishing" is no panacea and could even backfire if misinterpreted. Its success also relies on the strength of other elements of the deterrence posture.
Limiting the Potential for Racial Profiling in State and Local Police Enforcement of Immigration Laws — 2013
The passage of immigration enforcement laws, traditionally the purview of the federal government, by Arizona and other states raises the concern that state and local law enforcement agencies may engage in racial profiling when enforcing immigration laws. This paper describes several approaches for detecting racial profiling by police and calls for their use in monitoring the implementation of state and local immigration enforcement laws.
To reduce the costs of maintaining the Aegis system, and to take advantage of rapidly evolving commercial computing technology, the U.S. Navy is moving toward open-architecture software, a common source code library, and commercial, off-the-shelf processors. This report examines the potential benefits of this new model, the pace of upgrades, and the best way for the Navy to maximize the technological and financial benefits.
A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling — 2013
This report builds on earlier RAND research that used qualitative conceptual causal models called "factor trees" to identify the factors that contribute to aspects of terrorism or insurgency and how the factors relate to each other. This report goes beyond the qualitative by specifying a prototype computational social-science model of public support for terrorism and insurgency. The model illustrates designing for reusability and composition.
War has always been a dangerous business, bringing injury, wounds, and death, and — until recently — often disease. What has changed over time, most dramatically in the last 150 or so years, is the care these casualties receive and who provides it. This book looks at the history of how humanity has cared for its war casualties and veterans, from ancient times through the aftermath of World War II.
In an environment of fiscal constraints and shifting strategic needs, policymakers should carefully weigh the strategic capability effects, relative costs, and risks associated with potential changes to U.S. overseas military posture.
Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits — 2013
This independent assessment is a comprehensive study of the strategic benefits, risks, and costs of U.S. military presence overseas. The report provides policymakers a way to evaluate the range of strategic benefits and costs that follow from revising the U.S. overseas military presence by characterizing how this presence contributes to assurance, deterrence, responsiveness, and security cooperation goals.
Explores the future relationship between U.S. and Chinese sea power in the context of historical sea-power rivalries and recent technological developments, and discusses the potential of pursuing maritime security cooperation in the Western Pacific.
This book examines the strategic choices that American and Chinese decisionmakers face regarding sea power in the Western Pacific, shaped by geography, history, technology, and politics. In particular, the author explores the potential for cooperation on maritime security in the Western Pacific, and how the United States might pursue such cooperation as part of a broader strategy to advance its interests in the region.
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on April 4, 2013.
Leveraging Development Aid to Address Root Causes in Counterinsurgency: Balancing Theory and Practice in "Hold" and "Build" — 2013
Explores the application of aid money and resources by both military and civilian officials in the hold and build stages of western counterinsurgency doctrine.
Managing September 12th in Cyberspace: Presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats — 2013
Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats on March 21, 2013.
Managing September 12th in Cyberspace: Presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection, and Security Technologies — 2013
Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection, and Security Technologies on March 20, 2013.
Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Joint Subcommittee on Middle East and North Africa and Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific on March 19, 2013.