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A Framework and Scorecard for Integrating Risk into Force Planning — June 5, 2009

Cover: Managing Risk in USAF Force Planning

Resources to address the range of threats DoD faces are limited, requiring difficult judgments about the risks associated with alternative policy options across multiple futures. A new PAF report, Managing Risk in USAF Force Planning (MG-827-AF), provides an orderly framework that senior Air Force leaders and their planning staffs can apply to better understand the assumptions that shape policy decisions, as well as a scorecard for reporting results and building consensus about future risks. This risk-management process would help senior Air Force leaders (1) focus planning on the most salient threats, (2) gain greater clarity on the risks associated with alternative courses of action across multiple futures, (3) maintain a sense of the persistent uncertainties associated with any policy choice, and (4) effectively communicate their judgments about risk to key audiences.

Recent News

U.S. Strategy Should Avoid Inflating Iran's Role in Middle East Instability, Exploit Constraints on Iranian Power and Seek Areas of Engagement — May 20, 2009

cover of MG-781

Iran's rise as a regional power presents a key foreign policy and security challenge to the United States, but its reach may be more limited than Western conventional wisdom suggests, according to a RAND Corporation study issued today.

Study urges U.S. to tone down Tehran conflict (The Washington Times) — May 19, 2009

cover of MG-781

An article that appeared in The Washington Times discusses a new RAND study that aims to provide policy planners with a framework for anticipating and preparing for the strategic challenges Iran will present over the next ten to fifteen years.

Alternative fuel plans running on empty (Air Force Times) — May 5, 2009

planes on combat patrol over Afhghanistan, photo courtesy of U. S. Air Force/Allmon

Jim Bartis quoted on cleaner jet fuel options in this article focusing on alternative fuels for the U.S. Air Force that appeared in the Air Force Times.

Air Force Service Procurement: Approaches for Measurement and Management — May 1, 2009

planes on combat patrol over Afhghanistan, photo courtesy of U. S. Air Force/Allmon

Testimony presented, by Laura H. Baldwin, before the House Armed Services Committee Panel on Defense Acquisition Reform on April 23, 2009.

Pirate Threats on U.S. Companies (Fox Business) – Apr. 13, 2009

Peter Chalk

RAND Maritime Piracy Expert Peter Chalk, in a Fox Business interview, offers insights on whether the successful rescue of captain Richard Phillips will be a deterrent for pirates.

Obama's Turkish Dilemma — Apr. 6, 2009

depiction of Turkish/Armenia reconciliation, photo courtesy of EAFJD.eu

President Obama's visit to Ankara this week highlights Turkey's growing strategic importance to the United States - and a high stakes dilemma for the President and for U.S. strategic interests, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.

Piracy Still Threatens the Freedom of the Seas — Apr. 3, 2009

pirate boats with helicopter hovering overhead, photo courtesy of U.S. Navy

As recent events off the Horn of Africa have demonstrated, armed violence at sea is emerging as a growing threat to regional and international security, as discussed by Peter Chalk and Laurence Smallman in this commentary for RFERL.org, the website of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty.

United States, East Africa Allies Must Overcome Radical Islam to Reshape the Region's Security — Feb. 4, 2009

cover of MG-782

While al Qaeda is the primary terrorist/extremist threat in East Africa, the region suffers more broadly from a danger of radical Islamist groups and organizations that the United States and its allies must address to reshape the region's security environment.

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