Fiscal Year 2004 Research Agenda

Resource Management Program

Balancing Combat Support Equipment Resources

Although combat support resources support a wide range of combat capabilities, new analytic capabilities are needed to relate how resource levels and process performances impact operational effects across the entire range of combat support resources including maintenance, supply, transportation, civil engineering, communications, and services communities. Such an integrated view needs to be dynamic and capture how combat support resources are being consumed in supporting peacetime, permanent rotations, and contingency operations. For example, lessons from recent conflicts (Operation Noble Anvil, Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom) have indicated that theater distribution system (TDS) development and management was problematic. In addition, there were gaps between the strategic distribution system and the TDS that resulted in large cargo backlogs being created at transshipment points where the two distribution systems met. In addition, the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) has recently suggested that AF/ILG sponsor a joint Command and Control (C2) Battle Lab/RAND evaluation of PACAF’s Combat Support Command and Control (CSC2) architecture using the PAF-developed CSC2 operational architecture as a baseline. This would be an ideal test bed for evaluation of program balance among combat support resources. This two-year project will recommend methods, analysis tools, and data to identify resource imbalances early (e.g., too little combat communications or distribution capabilities versus too much of another resource type such as bare-base assets) so that adjustments can be made to achieve the desired operational effects. These assessments can be used to determine how to allocate scarce resources (shortages) to meet current contingencies and, in the long run, to adjust resource balances in the Project Objective Memorandum (POM). The PACAF “test” will produce a considerable source of data and analysis for use in meeting these project objectives.

Sponsors: AF/IL, AF/ILG, AF/ILP, AF/ILI
Project Leaders: Don Snyder, Patrick Mills

 

Understanding and Addressing the Effects of Aging Aircraft

This project will extend PAF’s work on the implications of aging aircraft for future USAF force structure development and sustainment investments, and will refine that work for application by the Air Force Fleet Viability Board (AFFVB). Previous work has developed analytic forecasting relationships between the age of aircraft fleets and the maintenance and modification workloads and materiel consumption, as well as computational techniques to forecast workloads and costs for current and future fleets (and the entire force). A macro-analytic technique for relating forecast depot capacity and workloads to aircraft availability, and an availability-oriented economic service life analysis technique were also developed. Two additional aging aircraft issues will be addressed: 1) more comprehensive availability forecasting; and 2) the potential implications of aging aircraft for base-level maintenance skill requirements and age-focused maintenance process improvements. PAF will also conduct pilot analyses to characterize the subsystems affected by age, the prototypical failure modes, and the consequences for base-level maintenance requirements as fleets age. We expect that these estimates will support AFFVB deliberations as well as Air Force Corporate Structure Decisions.

Sponsors: AF/IL, AF/XP, SAF/AQ
Project Leader: Edward Keating

 

Implementation of a Closed Loop Budgeting and Planning Process for Depot-Level Repair

This project will extend FY03 work where PAF prototyped the closed loop planning system and demonstrated it on a multiple fighter (F15C, F15E, F16) database. It is a spares campaign initiative to provide methods to plan and track execution of budgets/funding and spare parts repairs as they relate to weapon system availability and sortie generation capabilities. We have shown that we can optimize the repair planning for most of the unscheduled (non-Program Decision Memorandum [PDM] generated) Depot-Level Repair (DLR) costs for the fighters and that this optimization has the potential to achieve the same level of performance as the current planning system with seven percent or more savings. In FY04 we will conclude the prototype with extensions to large aircraft, and provide tracking metrics and more emphasis on future financial structures and related transactions that support the entire logistics structure.

Sponsors: AF/IL, AF/ILI
Project Leader: Richard Hillestad

 

Best Practices for Purchasing and Supply Chain Management: Developing Effective Market Research Methods and Proactive Supply Strategies for Low Demand Items

This project will continue PAF’s support of Air Force implementation of best practices for purchasing and supply chain management (PSCM). Prior years’ projects provided analyses to assist the Air Force Materiel Command’s PSM demonstrations and PSCM reorganization strategies. We have also pioneered the use of spend analysis as a tool for implementing PSCM. This year there are two major tasks: 1) improve supply strategies for high variance and low demand items; and 2) better exploit AF leverage with sole-source suppliers. The first task will evaluate best commercial practices that support low and highly variable demand, and develop prototype supply strategies. The second task will identify innovative commercial sole-source supplier relationships for after-market support of large capital equipment; benchmark those supplier relationships from both the buyer and supplier perspectives to analyze successful supply strategy processes used with sole source suppliers; identify candidate sole-source sustainment suppliers where these benchmarking lessons could apply; and develop prototype supply strategies to improve Air Force leverage.

Sponsors: AF/IL, AF/ILI, SAF/AQC
Project Leaders: Nancy Moore, Nancy Chenoweth

 

Contracting to Support Contingencies: Lessons from Recent Operations

The Air Force contracts for many types of goods and services that significantly affect its performance during contingency operations. Some contracts predate specific operations because the Air Force contracts for future capabilities that it can call upon should operations occur, e.g., construction of base facilities, aircraft maintenance in-theater, or surge capacity at centralized repair facilities. Other contracts and purchases occur in-theater to support specific operations, e.g., purchasing water and miscellaneous goods and services from the local market. Some contracts are with other U.S. agencies or even host nations. This project will systematically examine after-action reports and other records of contingency-related contracting activities to develop insights into issues, trends, and best practices that can be used to inform and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of future contingency contracting activities. We will apply the methodology developed for prior RAND agile combat support lessons learned studies.

Sponsors: SAF/AQC, AF/ILP, AF/ILG
Project Leaders: Laura Baldwin, John Ausink

 

Transforming the Maintenance Structure with CONUS CIRF Implementation

In the past, PAF analyses have shown that CONUS centralized intermediate repair facilities (CIRFs) offer the potential to improve Air Expeditionary Force (AEF) support effectiveness and to reduce maintenance manpower requirements. The Air Force is now implementing CONUS CIRFs as part of its maintenance transformation. Further, recent advances in long-haul communications and other technological improvements enabled the control of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and command, control, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (C2ISR) data exploitation and distribution from CONUS during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). These advances provide opportunities for performing many supply-side functions and analyses supporting Commanders, Air Force Forces (COMAFFORs) from CONUS. Some of these functions include centrally inducting CIRF and depot repair, and distribution activities to achieve the greatest operational effectiveness for a given set of resources As part of maintenance transformation, this project will evaluate the effectiveness and costs of alternative CONUS CIRF implementation options, including various degrees of centralization in terms of directing CIRF and depot-level repair induction and distribution priorities from a “spares commodity control point.” We expect transformation of the maintenance structure will improve the Air Force’s deployment and sustainment capabilities.

Sponsors: AF/IL, AF/ILM, AF/ILI
Project Leader: James Masters

 

War Reserve Materiel Forward Support Locations Post Operation Iraqi Freedom

This project will extend PAF’s War Reserve Materiel (WRM) Forward Support Location (FSL) project started last year. Recent events such as Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom and the continuing Global War on Terrorism suggest that the current overseas basing structure may not be appropriate for meeting new threats. In the near term, the Air Force is faced with major reconstitution efforts to reallocate combat and support resources across its existing forward and CONUS support locations. This reconstitution effort presents an opportunity for a new systematic evaluation of the worldwide support basing structure in order to improve combat capability given alternative investments in WRM resources. These reconstitution activities may also provide opportunities to take advantage of transformation and innovations in WRM technology, process, or policy adaptations that can reduce WRM requirements. Project tasks include evaluation of the costs and effectiveness of alternative WRM processes and policies such as substituting commercial capabilities for some assets and/or services, and collocating Air Force WRM FSLs with those of other Services. PAF developed a mixed integer mathematical programming model to analyze location, storage, and transportation options last year, which we intend to use in the evaluation of FSL option packages or portfolios. A more efficient basing structure and positioning of WRM assets will improve the Air Force’s warfighting capabilities.

Sponsors: AF/IL, AFI/ILM, AF/ILG, AF/XOR
Project Leader: Mahyar Amouzegar

 

Weapon System Costing Program

This multiyear project will conduct a number of studies related to developing better cost estimating tools for use by the acquisition community, examine the effects of USAF and DoD policies as they impact weapon system costs, and establish a Center of Excellence for Cost Analysis (CECA) at the RAND Corporation. This year’s efforts include tasks continuing from FY03 and three new tasks. Each task has a leader, a defined budget, and deliverables. The project monitor is Mr. Jay Jordan, the Technical Director of the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. The six FY04 tasks are:

• Continuation of the Analysis of the Sources of Cost Growth in Selected Acquisition Reports

• Completion of Operations and Support (O&S) Cost Estimating Relationships

• Completion of other FY03 tasks (Software, Price-Based Acquisition, and F-18/F-22 Case Study)

• Space Handbook Part II

• Cost Risk Policy for ACAT I Programs

• Costing of Spiral Development Programs

Sponsor: SAF/AQ
Project Leaders: Obaid Younossi

 

UAV/UCAV End-to-End Sustainment Concepts

The nature of recent conflicts and the efforts to curtail global terrorism combined with advancements in technology facilitated acceleration of the acquisition and fielding of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). However, additional manpower was not added to accommodate the workload associated with those weapon systems. The shift from contractor-supported testing to real-world deployment and employment of these assets has not been as seamless as envisioned. Although advances in communication long-haul capabilities and technological improvements enabled the control of the air vehicle as well as command, control, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (C2ISR) data exploitation and distribution from CONUS during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), recent experiences with UAV utilization/support have posed new operational support and sustainment questions. This project will provide macro evaluations of the costs and benefits of alternative global support concepts to enable rapid deployment and employment for current and future UAVs, including evaluations of contractor versus blue suit options for each level of maintenance—organizational, intermediate, and depot. The end result is intended to be a future maintenance and support roadmap that will enable efficient and effective resource allocation decisions.

Sponsors: AF/IL, AF/ILM, SAF/AQ, AF/XOR
Project Leaders: John Drew, Russell Shaver

 

A Strategic Analysis of Air National Guard/Active Combat Support Functions

The Air National Guard (ANG) has recognized the need to undertake a fundamental reexamination of the ANG structure to ensure that it continues to play a leading role in meeting Air and Space Expeditionary Force (AEF) and Homeland Security missions. VANGUARD, the new vision for the ANG, which was released in December 2002, calls for the ANG to consider, select, and implement new missions, new concepts, and new cultures that leverage ANG strengths and insure relevant futures. Further, VANGUARD unit concepts might include blending, associate, and other heretofore nonstandard approaches for meeting Total Force needs. In addition, the ANG has developed a decision support system called GUARDIAN (GUARD Information Analysis Network) to facilitate operational and combat support decisions associated with ANG AEF sourcing and other resource decisions. This environment raises many important policy questions including: what are the main combat support functions that should be performed by the ANG to relieve active duty stresses; what are the costs, benefits, and personnel impacts of having the ANG manage CONUS centralized intermediate repair facilities (CIRFs); how should repair inductions be directed to ANG repair centers to achieve the most efficient combat effects; what role should the ANG play in leading the development of metrics for supporting the AEF; what role should the ANG play in the implementation of the Combat Support Command and Control (CSC2) Operational Architecture; and how should GUARDIAN be designed/evolved to meet ANG decision support needs. This project will provide analyses of and recommendations for alternative strategic directions the ANG might pursue in a total force context.

Sponsor: ANG/CC
Project Leader: Robert Tripp

 

Air Force Fleet Viability Board Assessment Support

Due to an urgent mid-year request from the Air Force to conduct another study, this research was deferred. This project was to continue PAF’s work on the assessment of aircraft fleets’ flight safety, availability, mission worthiness, and costs, and to transition that work from the Aging Aircraft System Program Office (SPO) to the newly-chartered Air Force Fleet Viability Board (AFFVB) which is charged with assessing the Air Force’s plans for continuing to sustain its most critical aging fleets. Past work for the Aging Aircraft SPO has identified and refined risk management techniques for assessing fleets’ current and future flight safety and ability to carry out anticipated missions. Further, that work has also been able to estimate how work to improve or maintain adequate levels of flight safety and mission worthiness would affect aircraft availability and costs. Work is underway to test-apply those techniques to an initial assessment of the C–5A fleet, which is the initial focus of the AFFVB. The primary focus of that initial fleet assessment was to be the fatigue and stress corrosion cracking structural risks facing the C-5A fleet. This project would help the AFFVB apply and extend those techniques to additional fleets. In the process, the project would extend the risk management approach to cover a wider range of risks, better integrate the assessments to cover the joint effects of multiple risk processes, and improve the evaluation of maintenance and modification options to maintain acceptable levels of fleet viability and cost.

Sponsors: AFMC/CC, ASC, AFFVB, AF/IL
Project Leader: Ray Pyles

 

Cost, Risk, and Technical Assistance to the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency

The objective of the project is to provide cost analysis, risk analysis, and technical support to the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) efforts in conducting program cost reviews as part of the Defense Acquisition Board proceedings on a number of Acquisition Category (ACAT) ID programs. In addition, PAF will provide the same support for program reviews conducted under the auspices of the Air Force Acquisition Executive for ACAT IC programs. It is envisioned that this project will be a multiyear effort. Because of the unique nature of each major program and the technological, cost, and risk issues involved, PAF’s involvement with the program review efforts will be tailored to fit each review. These efforts will be in addition to and complimentary to the other efforts in the cost analysis area being conducted under other PAF projects.

Sponsor: SAF/FMC
Project Leader: Obaid Younossi

 

Improving Intratheater Air Force Transportation Efficiency

This analysis will examine policy questions on the configuration/reconfiguration and sizing of the air portion of the Theater Distribution System (TDS) over time and how the air portion should fit within an end-to-end distribution system needed to support and sustain joint and coalition forces’ operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The analysis will address methods to improve forecasting procedures to configure and size air assets used to support TDS needs; improve measurement of TDS and end-to-end air mode effectiveness and efficiency; improve scheduling of air assets within the TDS; and improve TDS inter-modal coordination.

Sponsor: 9th AF
Project Leaders: Robert Tripp, Patrick Mills

 

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