Fiscal Year 2004 Research Agenda
Strategy and Doctrine Program
New Strategy-Based Constructs for Sizing and Shaping the Air Force
Securing and helping rebuild Iraq will undoubtedly require significant attention from the U.S. military for an extended period of time. Nonetheless, the regime change and disarmament accompanying Operation Iraqi Freedom have effectively removed a major threat that has long served as a driver of U.S. force structure. This raises some fundamental questions and uncertainties. This study will deliver both an ongoing, interactive capability to analyze the implications for the USAF of shifting policy and resource guidance from OSD and the Joint Staff and a longer-term, exploratory examination (including wargaming) of alternative future strategies and their implications.
Sponsors: AF/XPX, AF/XOX
Project Leader: David Shlapak
An Assessment of Airpower’s Effects in Operation Iraqi Freedom: Implications for Future Operations
Like all of the United States’ recent military operations, Operation Iraqi Freedom will become a reference point for students of military affairs as well as for advocates of particular agendas within the defense establishment. The USAF can be relied upon to produce a comprehensive record of the campaign’s air operations, including the Combined Forces Air Component Commander, Air Combat Command’s (CFACC’s) objectives, plans, priorities, forces available, Air Tasking Orders (ATOs) and other taskings, sorties flown, ordnance delivered, and targets attacked. For the story to be complete, however, considerable analysis of these data will be called for at both the strategic and operational levels. This investigation will range from integrative assessments to more detailed examinations of particular issues of interest to the USAF and will draw upon other Operation Iraqi Freedom lessons learned efforts as well as the resources and capabilities of all of PAF.
Sponsors: AF/XO, AF/XP
Project Leader: David Ochmanek
14 Years of War: Identifying and Implementing Lessons from U.S. Military Operations Since the Cold War
Operation Iraqi Freedom is the latest in a steady stream of military operations in which the United States has found itself engaged since the 1989 invasion of Panama. Although each campaign has yielded its own “lessons learned,” there are also important insights that can be gained only from looking across this entire decade-and-a-half of activity. This examination will focus on two areas: What new lessons emerge from this broader look, and what should the USAF do in response to them? How well has the Air Force assimilated the lessons it thought it learned, and if learning has not taken root, why not, and what can be done about it?
Sponsors: AF/XPX, AF/XOX
Project Leader: Karl Mueller
Exploring New Concepts for Joint Expeditionary Operations
DoD concepts for future expeditionary operations envision joint forces that can rapidly deploy and conduct combat operations with great speed and be sustained without huge logistical tails. These operations could create new demands and opportunities for the USAF in three areas: deployment of expeditionary ground forces, joint combat operations with ground forces operating in smaller, lighter formations, and airborne sustainment for ground forces on a dispersed battlefield. The study will 1) explore the potential for mixing light, medium, and heavy force “modules” that are sufficiently light to deploy rapidly but have adequate firepower and protection to be combat effective; 2) assess the airlift requirements for these mixed forces; 3) continue the development of new concepts for air and ground firepower integration on the future battlefield; and 4) explore alternative options for air resupply of dispersed ground forces. This project builds on recent PAF work on deploying the Stryker Brigade Combat Team (SBCT) and counterland operations on future battlefields.
Sponsor: AF/XOX
Project Leader: Alan Vick
Beyond Al Qaeda: Countering Future Terrorist and Other Non-Traditional Threats to U.S. Security
Al Qaeda’s current status remains unclear, but it is certain that it and other groups will at least episodically threaten U.S. interests and the lives and well-being of Americans, at home and abroad. This continuing danger will lead to ongoing U.S. efforts to monitor, disrupt, and dismantle terrorist groups before they can cause large-scale destruction to U.S. citizens or American interests. In addition, the U.S. needs early warning of other non-traditional threats that could endanger its security, such as increasingly organized and powerful transnational criminal groups. This project will work to identify and define ways of countering such emerging threats.
Sponsors: AF/XO, AF/XP
Project Leader: Angel Rabasa
The Greater Middle East: Social, Political, and Economic Dynamics 2004–2010
In the wake of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom, it may be increasingly relevant to think more broadly in terms of Middle East or Southwest Asian security as opposed to just the Persian Gulf. Such an expanded perspective will have implications for strategy, command organization and relationships, and access objectives in the broader region, from the Levant through the Gulf to Central Asia. This subject is certain to evolve over the coming months and remain an item of keen interest in upcoming strategy debates and Quadrennial Defense Review-related deliberations.
Sponsors: AF/XO, AF/XP
Project Leader: Steven Simon
China’s New Nucleus Calculus
The USAF has invested for a number of years in building and maintaining at RAND a center of excellence in the study of Chinese military capabilities and their implications for U.S. and USAF planning. This past year, work focused on a reexamination of Chinese military modernization resources and priorities and on possible Chinese approaches to denying theater access to the U.S. One area of Beijing’s modernization and doctrinal development is the Chinese nuclear force. The combined prospects of U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD) and Theater Missile Defense (TMD), deep cuts in U.S. and Russian arsenals, closer U.S.-Taiwan relations, and the ongoing South Asian nuclear rivalry all affect China’s nuclear calculus. Chinese decisions on these issues will have a direct effect on USAF nuclear and NMD force posture and requirements. This research will leverage ongoing research for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) that focuses on Chinese doctrine, enabling this research to focus on Chinese force capabilities.
Sponsors: AF/XOX, AF/AIA, PACAF/CC
Project Leaders: Evan Medeiros
War and Escalation in South Asia
Events in South Asia have come to have heightened importance to the United States as India and Pakistan acquire increasing nuclear capabilities and ongoing operations in and stabilization of Afghanistan focus American attention on the region. This project will assess the strategic and military issues confronting India and Pakistan and their perspectives on and approaches towards resolving these concerns, including their broader attempts to pursue their confrontation through diplomatic and proxy means The project’s goals will be to 1) assess the strategic balance in the subcontinent; 2) evaluating possible paths to conflict; 3) explore how events in South Asia short of actual warfare affect U.S. interests and goals in the broader Asian and great Middle Eastern regions; and 4) identify implications for U.S. policy and USAF posture.
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