Fiscal Year 2005 Research Agenda

Resource Management Program

Capability-Based Programming

This project’s long-term goal is to develop a series of analyses and models to be used as vehicles to understand the effects of changes in Air Force programs on operational capabilities. These analytic tools and models will be used separately or in conjunction with other analyses to improve the planning, programming, budgeting, and execution (PBBE) of Agile Combat Support (ACS)/expeditionary combat support programs to achieve the best operational effects, today and in the future. Such linkages will be used in direct support of the CSAF-instituted Capability Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA) process. This project responds to the need to better understand and manage the effects of changes in ACS programs on operational capabilities and embed these considerations in PBBE and CRRA processes. We will begin by developing a prototype model to estimate the effects on operational capabilities of changes in DPEM funding for the F-15. Then the team will conduct a complete analysis of the totality of F-15 support (e.g., PDM, spares [POS, RSP, etc.], WRM, etc.). We will apply these results to “what-if” preparations for budget deliberations and at the same time may assess take on other important systems.

Sponsors: AF/IL; AF/ILP; AF/ILG; AF/ILM
Project Leaders: Ed Keating

Balancing Combat Support Equipment Resources

This is the second year of a two-year project in which we recommend methods, analysis tools, and data to identify agile combat support resource imbalances early (e.g., too little combat communications or distribution capabilities versus too much of another resource type such as bare base assets) so that adjustments can be made to achieve the desired operational effects. These assessments can be used to determine how to allocate scarce resources (shortages) to meet current contingencies and, in the long run, to achieve resource “balances” in the POM.

Sponsors: AF/IL; AF/ILP; AF/ILG
Project Leaders: Don Snyder, Patrick Mills

Sense and Respond Combat Support Options for Operational Support

The Sense and Respond Logistics (S&RL) concept, more broadly sense and respond combat support, calls for sensing changes in demands as they occur and developing responsive supply chains to react quickly to changing needs. Combat Support processes need to be enhanced and technologies need to be integrated for this concept to be implemented within DoD and Air Force supply chains. This project will identify process changes and existing, emerging, and maturing technologies that have the potential, with the human out of the loop, to quickly observe, orient, decide, and act in support of ongoing and potential operations. Developing an understanding of network capabilities, capacities, and limitations will be part of this analysis. This project will evaluate options for developing S&RL capabilities for meeting AEF operational goals, including development of ACS capabilities by individual service or by integrating combat support supply chain management within a Theater Logistics Commander during contingency operations.

Sponsors: AF/IL; AF/ILI; AF/ILG
Project Leaders: Mahyar Amouzegar, Bob Tripp

CONUS CIRF Implementation Analysis

In FY04, the CONUS Centralized Intermediate Repair Facility (CIRF) project evaluated options for supporting TF34 and F100 jet engines, EW Pods, LANTIRN, and F-15 avionics components. This work included the development of optimization tools that were used to identify the “optimal” CIRF networks for these communities, including the ability to support sensitivity analyses and “what if” questions. The FY05 project will support the Air Force in implementing CONUS CIRFs. Some additional analyses will be required to evaluate specific force mix options for managing and operating the CIRFs, e.g., percentages of active component, reserve component, and contractors. The effort will also support evaluations of alternative CIRF networks that the Air Force may wish to pursue that may not have been originally considered. Sensitivity analyses will be used to evaluate these desired alternative implementation options on the basis of both costs and effectiveness.

Sponsors: AF/IL; AF/ILM
Project Leaders: James Masters, Ron Garvey

Performance-Based Supplier Relationships and PSCM Baseline Measurement

This project has two tasks. The first will support the Air Force’s implementation of purchasing and supply chain management (PSCM) and its goal of developing major supplier alliances and sourcing strategies for all commodities by the end of FY05. AFMC is in the process of standing up nine commodity councils charged with developing more strategic Air Force supplier relationships to encourage sizeable and continuous improvements in supply availability, quality, and cost, through leveraged, performance-based purchasing and other best practices. This project will develop an overarching methodology and guide that the commodity councils can use to create and tailor performance-based supplier relationships that continuously reduce costs and improve performance (quality, responsiveness, flexibility, etc.) over time. The second task supports the Air Force’s goal of achieving a 20 percent increase in aircraft availability within the next three years, with zero real operational and support cost growth over the FY04-09 Future Year Defense Plan (FYDP). To help meet these goals, the Air Force is aggressively implementing strategic sourcing and PSCM processes; as well as organizational, system, and personnel changes, including the AFMC commodity councils described above. These and other initiatives are at different stages of development, and the Air Force needs to know which ones are succeeding and to what extent. This project will develop prototype methods for estimating performance improvements and cost savings related to various PSCM initiatives.

Sponsors: AF/IL; AF/ILI; SAF/AQC
Project Leaders: Nancy Moore, Mary Chenoweth

AF Space Command Logistics Review

This project is an end-to-end review of AFSPC’s logistics philosophy, policy, practices, execution and resource levels. The initial analysis will be structured like the Chief’s Logistics Review, Maintenance Manpower Requirements Analysis and our ACS work in support of the AEF. The second phase will expand the analysis and focus more deeply on issues of manpower requirements and funding as well as doctrine, policy and execution issues raised in the first phase. This project will involve considerable interaction with AFSPC personnel.

Sponsors: AFSPC/DO; AFSPC/LC
Project Leader: Bob Tripp

AF Space Systems Cost

The objective of this task is to enhance Space Command's understanding of the causes of space systems cost growth and Space Command's ability to perform independent technical assessment and cost risk analysis so as to be able to conduct more realistic cost estimates. These enhancements will be able to be incorporated into the current Air Force cost estimating and cost risk analysis processes to more accurately reflect the realities of current decision making processes.

Sponsors: AFSPC/XP
Project Leader: Obaid Younossi

Contracting to Support Contingencies: Lessons from Recent Operations

This represents the second year of a two-year project in which we are gathering and analyzing data on the Air Force’s contracting experiences in recent contingency operations to derive lessons to improve future contingency contracting activities, including contract outcomes and contingency contracting officer staffing and training. In FY04, we focused on collecting and analyzing data on CENTAF contracts. In FY05, we will expand our data analyses to include contract support purchased by USAFE, PACAF, AMC, and other organizations. This will provide a more complete picture of the contract support needed to complement organic agile combat support activities and help inform planning for contingency operations. We will also examine contingency contracting doctrine and conduct interviews with recently deployed CCOs and their customers to gather lessons for the future.

Sponsors: SAF/AQC; AF/ILP; AF/ILG
Project Leaders: Laura Baldwin, John Ausink

Weapon System Costing Umbrella Project

Tasks focus on cost estimating policy, theory and tools, and important current and future issues.

• Cost estimating methods to estimate the life cycle costs of aircraft modifications
• Cost estimating methods to estimate the life cycle cost of UAVs
• An analytic approach and an assessment of R&D investment—new technology versus product improvement
• Contractor Logistics Support: cost estimating and implications for Air Force acquisition strategies
• How can AFTOC, REMIS, and other databases be better used to provide cost estimates for peacetime flying training and contingency operations?
• Investigate the effects on O&S costs of airframe, avionics, and engine subsystem procurement costs, the cost of peculiar support equipment, initial spares funding, weapons performance characteristics, and such reliability indicators as Maintenance Hours per Flight Hour
• Examination and analyses of SAR data to determine reasons for weapon system cost growth

Sponsors: SAF/AQ; SAF/FMC; AFCAA
Project Leader: Obaid Younossi

Evaluation of ANG Transformation Options

The project continues last year’s ANG transformation study. Last year the project investigated how CONUS CIRFs, alternative Civil Engineering deployment concepts, reachback options to support CAOC/AFFOR and UAV operations, and GUARDIAN enhancements would affect ANG contributions to AEF and Homeland Defense (HD) missions. These analyses have led to implementation of concepts in each area. This year the project will explore additional ANG transformation options and evaluate how they would affect AEF and HD mission effectiveness and efficiency. Some areas that will be explored include medical, communications, and security forces. Force structure capabilities and cost models and databases maintained by PAF will be made available for ANG use and analysis.

Sponsor: Director, Air National Guard
Project Leader: Bob Tripp

Direct Analysis Support to the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency

The objective of this project is to provide cost analysis, risk analysis, and technical support to Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) efforts in conducting program cost reviews as part of the Defense Acquisition Board proceedings on a number of Acquisition Category (ACAT) ID programs. In addition, RAND will provide the same support for program reviews conducted under the auspices of the Air Force Acquisition Executive for ACAT IC programs. It is envisioned that this project will be a multi-year effort Because of the unique nature of each major program and the technological, cost, and risk issues involved, RAND’s involvement with the program review efforts will be tailored to fit each review. These efforts would be in addition to and complimentary to the other efforts in the cost analysis area being conducted under other PAF projects.

Sponsor: SAF/FMC; AFCAA
Project Leader: Obaid Younossi

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