Fiscal Year 2006 Research Agenda

Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program

Methods and Prototypes for Force Development and Utilization

This project continues a body of work to provide the Force Development Council and functionally oriented force development teams with tools needed to enhance the development and utilization of officers. These new structures require analytic support in order to determine desired stocks and flows of officers with various characteristics within and between career fields. This project is dedicated to developing prototype tools and methods for use by in-house analysis cells. It will recommend a division of responsibilities among AF/DPPF (Force Development Division), career field managers, development teams, and AFPC force development analysts; link data requirements and information flows to required decision processes; and specify models and other tools.

Sponsor: AF/A1
Project Leader: S. Craig Moore

Integrated Executive Force Planning

This project continues a body of work that supports requirements-based development of individuals to meet future GO, SES, Colonel, GS-15, and CMSgt requirements. It also examines more flexible and rational utilization of complementary executive workforces (e.g., GO and SES, colonel and GS-15). This year’s work will continue a focus on how these requirements will shift as the Air Force evolves towards its envisioned future CONOPS and how the competencies required at these level can be translated into development needs at lower grades. The project will also include a task to evaluate the effectiveness of a new Promotion and Development Management System for SES members.

Sponsor: AF/A1
Project Leaders: Stephen Drezner and John Boon

Rated Career Path Analysis

This project will conclude efforts launched in FY05 to identify and evaluate rated career paths in support of the rated officer force development teams. Many field grade jobs require or benefit from specific experiences or other competencies gained at lower-grade jobs. Tasks include determining these requirements for classes of similar jobs, determining critical experiences imparted by classes of jobs, and modeling an optimal set of career paths to best match up earlier experiences with later jobs. The results will provide force development teams a robust basis for vectoring the development of individual officers.

Sponsor: AF/A3O; AF/A1
Project Leaders: Lionel Galway and Craig Moore

Aircrew Management Issues

During FY05, RAND completed development of both unit-level and force-wide models to evaluate fighter pilot absorption, experience, and inventory interactions. During FY06, these models will be used to evaluate the impacts of reduced fighter force structure associated with recapitalizing the fighter force and to suggest recapitalization phasing options that will optimize desirable outcomes. While the Air Force generally cannot absorb fighter pilots at levels required to produce desired inventories, judicious use of reserve component force structure to absorb active pilots can provide some relief. Additionally, past research has demonstrated that overabsorption significantly detracts from training and readiness and is therefore not a viable option. Determining appropriate absorption levels is critical to sustaining the best possible fighter-related capabilities.

Sponsor: AF/A3/5; ACC/A3; AMC/A3; AF/A3O; AF/A1
Project Leaders: John Ausink and William Taylor

Enhancing the Common Airman Culture

The Air Force is currently under a spotlight regarding sexual harassment, religious intolerance, and other aberrant behaviors of some of its members. Senior leaders have hypothesized that enhancing a common airman culture, built around the Air Force’s core values, will reduce the incidence of such behaviors. This project will examine ways to measure the strength of the culture and trends in aberrant behaviors, determine linkages between the two, and recommend culture-enhancing interventions or other steps to help reduce the incidence of aberrant behaviors.

Sponsor: AF/A1
Project Leader: Laura Miller

Conceptualizing Improvements in the Air Force Classification Structure

At a conceptual level, this project will identify changes needed in the Air Force personnel classification structure to accommodate better force development and other emerging needs.

Sponsor: AF/A1P; AFPC/CC
Project Leaders: Al Robbert and Ray Conley

Determining a Strategic Framework for Foreign Language and Culture Competencies

This project responds to a requirement placed on the services by OSD to create stronger language and cultural competencies in its officer, enlisted, and civilian workforces. PAF will help the Air Force to specify and rationalize required competencies, determine developmental alternatives, evaluate and cost alternatives, and formulate an appropriate execution plan.

Sponsor: AF/A1D
Project Leader: Mike Thirtle

Modeling Enlisted Retention and Experience

Analyzing the impact of retention incentives and constraints, accession levels, retraining programs, and other skills management policies and programs requires an inventory projection model incorporating an underlying model of retention behavior. The Air Force has allowed its organic capability for such modeling to atrophy. In this project, PAF will develop a prototype model suitable for use by RAND or Air Force analysts.

Sponsor: AF/A1
Project Leader: Lionel Galway

Improving Diversity Among Senior Active-Duty Personnel

The Secretary of Defense has asked the services to determine why women and minorities are underrepresented at higher grades in their workforces. This project will examine trends in Air Force military and civilian workforces, seek to identify causes, and recommend alternatives, if available, to address the causes.

Sponsor: SAF/MRE; AF/A1P
Project Leader: Nelson Lim

Enlisted Force Management

This project continues work begun in FY05 to enhance integration of enlisted skills management programs (trained personnel requirements, selective reenlistment bonuses, career job reservations, and retraining). These programs often rely on separate decision processes that may produce disconnects—instances of programs working at cross purposes to one another. Integrated decision processes and models are needed to insure that such programs consistently and synergistically move Air Force inventories toward a better match with Air Force needs.

Sponsor: AF/A1P
Project Leader: Mike Schiefer

Expeditionary Airmen Requirement Analysis

The Air Force is seeking to modify and enrich the initial training sequence for individuals in specialties that, when deployed, are expected to operate in hostile environments outside the security perimeter of an air base—either immediately outside the perimeter for base defense or deeper into the battlefield. PAF’s experience in analyzing training pipeline issues may be useful to the Air Force as it develops plans to transition to the new sequence. This project provides coverage for PAF participation in an ongoing integrated process team and to address selected issues consistent with its expertise.

Sponsor: AF/A3O; AF/A7S
Project Leader: Tom Manacapilli

Improving Development and Utilization of Intelligence Officers

In recent years, members of the Air Force intelligence community have noted a shortfall in the availability of general officers with desired experience to fill senior leadership positions in Air Force and joint intelligence organizations and functions. Additionally, Air Force development doctrine requires each career field manager to provide appropriate education, training, and assignment vectors for officers in the career field. Appropriately designed vectors would insure that experience requirements in senior positions are met as closely as possible. This project will fill that need by determining competencies required by field grade and general officer jobs, competencies imparted by jobs at all levels, and a set of ideal career paths to develop the best possible distribution of the needed competencies in the workforce.

Sponsor: AF/A2; AF/A1
Project Leader: Marygail Brauner

Royal Saudi Air Force Across the Board Review

The purpose of this activity is to assist SAF/IA with the across the board review (ABR) of the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) that will be conducted April – September 2006. The primary objective of the ABR is to provide the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) a comprehensive analysis of RSAF operational effectiveness. As part of this review, we will examine processes and procedures used to acquire, operate, and support RSAF weapon systems and make recommendations to the RSAF to enhance their operations.

Sponsor: SAF/IA
Project Leaders: John Ausink and Mike Thirtle

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