Fiscal Year 2006 Research Agenda

Resource Management Program

Capability-Based Programming

This project’s long-term goal is to develop a series of analyses and models to be used as vehicles to understand the effects of changes in Air Force DPEM programs on operational capabilities today and in the future. During FY05 we are estimating a prototype model of the F-15 PDM line process. The faster the process goes the more aircraft are available to the operational units. The F-15 PDM line was chosen because it is a prototype for lean production. We expect to expand the model to other DPEM (PDM) lines when the F-15 work is finished in FY06 when resources and budget estimates are attached to the PDM process. A byproduct of our analysis to date has been to assist WR-ALC PDM managers to diagnose where further process improvement can occur.

Sponsor: AF/A4P
Project Leader: Edward Keating

Balancing Combat Support Resources

This project continues the effort to develop methods, analysis tools and data to identify agile combat support deployable UTC resource imbalances early so that adjustments can be made to achieve desired operational effects at least cost. These assessments can also be used to determine how to allocate scarce resources (shortages) to meet current contingencies and, in the long run, to achieve resource “balances” in the POM. Our focus in FY2005 has been on base assets (fuels equipment and shelters). These assessments are intended to be used in direct support of the CSAF-instituted Capability Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA) and POM processes and to include all ACS resources including medical resources. The START model underlying many of these analyses includes medical resources. In FY06 we will turn to identifying ways to improve the Status of Resources and Training System (SORTS) metrics as well as assisting ILP in using these methods in the POM process.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7E; AF/A4P
Project Leaders: Don Snyder and Patrick Mills

Implementing the Air Force Process Efficiency Initiative

This project will support Gen Wetekam's initiative for Air Force process improvement based on direction from the upcoming Corona. It may, for example, examine the desirability of a center for continuous process improvement, similar to the AEF center. This project’s analytic findings and results will be incorporated into the analysis undertaken by RPN M660, the project entitled Conceptualizing Improvements in the Air Force Classification Structure.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7E
Project Leader: Robert Tripp

Improving the Assignment of Air Force Logistics Decisions

This project will develop a simple, pragmatic framework that Air Force planners might use as a guide to assigning specific agile combat support decisions in ways that promote high-level Air Force goals. The approach will be to examine varying degrees of centralization (decentralization) of resource allocation decisions. Centralization and decentralization are simply different ways of talking about who in the Air Force is assigned the authority and responsibility to make such decisions. We will look at classes of requirements, commodities, including medical resources, decisions and time frames to identify whether and under what circumstances different classes of commodities are appropriate for varying degrees of centralization or decentralization.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7E
Project Leader: Frank Camm

A Global Analysis of Contingency Support Basing Options

This project will utilize the forward support location (FSL) model developed in FY03-04 to analyze global options for support bases, including "virtual afloat" options. We also recently used this type of analytic thinking to comment on medical WRM storage locations at the request of AF/SG. Analyses will consider implications for the theater distribution system as well as joint basing issues, and will evaluate tradeoffs between optimizing global objectives and regional needs. It will include medical resources (EMEDS in particular) as part of ACS resources. This project’s work will be linked to RPN A610, the project entitled Air-Ground Integration, Interoperability and Interdependence.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7E; AF/A4R
Project Leader: Ron McGarvey

Contracting to Support Contingencies

This is the final year of a multi-year project in which we are gathering and analyzing data on the Air Force’s contracting experiences in recent contingency operations to derive lessons to improve future contingency contracting activities. In FY04 and FY05, we collected comprehensive data on CENTAF contracts encompassing all phases of theater base-level activities during FY03-FY04. In FY06, we will conclude our analyses with lessons for improved planning for agile combat support activities and contingency contracting officer training and staffing. In addition, this project will seek data on recent joint contracting activities in theater to examine issues of efficiency and effectiveness.

Sponsor: SAF/AQC; AF/A4P; AF/A4R
Project Leaders: Laura Baldwin and John Ausink

Weapon System Costing Umbrella Project

Tasks focus on cost estimating policy, theory, and tools, as well as important current and future issues:

• Costing of modifications and upgrades
• UAV acquisition and cost estimating
• Weapon systems cost growth
• Overhead and inflation forecasting
• Update to the advanced airframe structural materials study
• Space programs’ cost, weight, and schedule trends
• Aircraft support cost and budget estimating relationships
• Impacts of evolutionary acquisition on weapon systems cost—Phase II
• Support of the USCM database
• Estimating the cost of ACTD programs
• Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) issues and costs
• R&D investment strategy phase—continuing

Sponsor: SAF/AQ; SAF/FMC; AFCAA
Project Leader: Obaid Younossi

Cost, Risk, and Technical Assistance to the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency

The objective of this project is to provide cost analysis, risk analysis, and technical support to Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) efforts in conducting program cost reviews as part of the Defense Acquisition Board proceedings on a number of Acquisition Category (ACAT) ID programs. In addition, RAND will provide the same support for program reviews conducted under the auspices of the Air Force Acquisition Executive for ACAT IC programs. This is the third year of a multi-year effort. Because of the unique nature of each major program and the technological, cost, and risk issues involved, RAND’s involvement with the program review efforts will be tailored to fit each review. These efforts would be in addition to and complimentary to the other efforts in the cost analysis area being conducted under other PAF projects.

Sponsor: SAF/FMC; AFCAA
Project Leader: David Stem

Evaluation of Total Force Integration/Combat Support Options

The project continues a multi-year effort to support transformation within the ANG from a total force perspective. Previously, the project investigated how CONUS CIRFs, alternative Civil Engineering deployment concepts, reachback options to support CAOC/AFFOR and UAV operations, and GUARDIAN enhancements would affect ANG contributions to AEF and Homeland Defense (HD) missions. All this work considered a variety of active-reserve mixes that were developed in consultation with ACC and the logistics community and also reviewed by those communities. These analyses have led to implementation of concepts in each area. This year the project will explore additional ANG transformation options and evaluate how they would affect AEF and HD mission effectiveness and efficiency. Some areas that will be explored include Predator, Global Hawk operations, and AMD staffing, etc. Analyses will take into account pending BRAC decisions and Future Total Force analyses and recommendations. Force structure capabilities and cost models and databases maintained by PAF will be made available for ANG use and analysis.

Sponsor: ANG Director
Project Leader: Robert Tripp

Space Program Cost Analysis

The objectives of this research are to: 1) suggest changes in methods, processes, human capital and organizational structures that will result in more credible and realistic independent cost estimates (and, therefore, budget estimates) of space systems (broadly) by gathering lessons from selected past programs that benefit future programs’ cost estimates, and identify problem areas and how they can be mitigated; and 2) apply the new processes to a specific program of interest (to be selected) to develop an independent cost estimate/analysis for use and as a training experience for the cost analysis team.

Sponsor: SMC/CC
Project Leader: Obaid Younossi

Best Practices in Performance-Based Logistics

This project will support implementation of the BRAC initiative for DLA management of Depot Level Reparables (DLRs) to ensure the change is successful. This includes measurement of (i.e., benchmarking) the current system's performance to assist with identifying and solving any problems in the future. The project will also address implementation of best commercial practices in particular problem areas, identified jointly with AF/ILI.

Sponsor: AF/A4I
Project Leaders: Nancy Moore and Mary Chenoweth

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