Fiscal Year 2006 Research Agenda

Strategy and Doctrine Program

Risks and Rewards in U. S. Alliances

Throughout their history, America’s alliances and partnerships have suffered from various strains. Typically these stresses grew out of disagreements over particular courses of action or decisions (e.g., theater nuclear deployments in Europe in the 1980s); only rarely have there been disagreements over the broader goals or policy outcomes being sought. More recently, however, America’s alliances have been under almost constant strain, not just over courses of action but also policy outcomes. This study will seek to take a detailed look at key American alliance and partner relationships, looking at the broader goals that motivate the alliances and partnerships, the explicit and implicit risks that are to be shared as part of the relationship, and the durability of the relationships over the coming years. The study will focus, in particular, on those alliances and partnerships on which future Air Force operations likely will depend.

Sponsor: AF/A5X
Project Leader: Nora Bensahel

The Future of Deterrence in a Proliferated World

Most contemporary thinking about deterrence grew out of the early days of the nuclear age and was focused on the problem of creating strategic stability in the broader U.S.-Soviet competition. The challenges of deterrence today are much broader and more varied, with non-state actors joining the list of those whose behavior we wish to influence, along with so-called “rogue” states, whose stake in the international system may be substantially different from and less than that of the Soviet Union in the Cold War. Thinking about deterrence needs to expand and evolve in step with the demands of this more complex era to help decision makers understand who it is we seek to deter from doing what and then matching policy and capabilities to these goals. This study will focus on the broader challenges of deterrence by focusing on the changing nature of the threats to be deterred, the impact of U.S. and allied policy on adversary behavior, the instruments (including information tools) needed to construct and communicate an effective deterrent posture, and the military capabilities needed to maintain a robust deterrent.

Sponsor: AF/A3/5
Project Leader: David Shlapak

Strategy and Operating Demands Shaping “the Next Air Force”

The demands of an expansive national security strategy, the problems of terrorism and extremism, and the threats to U.S. power projection capabilities and concepts posed by the growing availability of modern destructive technologies, including nuclear weapons, make for a challenging set of problems against which the capabilities of the future Air Force must be measured. This study will focus on the strategy and operating demands that will shape the next Air Force. It will consider in detail the demands that changing policy and strategy will place on the Air Force (including the occasionally competing requirements for persistence, speed, reach, precision, and surprise) in an environment that will pose ever-growing risks to long-standing U.S. and USAF approaches to theater warfare. This assessment will be used to guide a more in-depth look at the future Air Force, which will be conducted in the Aerospace Force Development program.

Sponsors: AF/A8X
Project Leader: David Ochmanek

Reassessing the Global War on Terrorism

In response to the attacks on New York and Washington, DC, the United States embarked on a “global war on terrorism,” with the elimination of al Qaeda in Afghanistan and toppling of the ruling Taliban regime as the first objectives. Since then, U.S. and coalition governments, and particularly American military forces, have engaged in operations against terrorist organizations and their sponsors across the globe, ranging from regime change in Iraq to advisory and support operations in places like the Philippines and Horn of Africa. This study will reassess the war on terrorism by examining the key assumptions underlying the war, operations undertaken to date, changes and adaptation in enemy approaches, measures of progress, and future military options. It will seek to answer broad questions regarding what type of “war” we are fighting, do we and our friends and adversaries see the war in the same context, and how should we and others measure success.

Sponsors: AF/A5X
Project Leaders: Kim Cragin

China’s Rise Through the Eyes of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in Asia

China’s growing political, economic, and military strength is having a profound impact on its Asian neighbors and around the globe. This study will examine China’s rise as seen through the eyes of key U.S. allies and partners. It will explore political and economic factors as well as military trends to assess how allies such as South Korea, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, Australia, India, Pakistan, and the European Union view the impact of China’s emergence on their own circumstances, but more importantly how China’s emergence will affect their relationships, particularly their security relationships, with the United States.

Sponsor: PACAF/CC
Project Leader: Evan Medeiros

Future U. S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan

With the fall of hostile regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan and the emergence of representative governments, albeit fledgling ones, that are inclined to better relations with the United States, the question arises: what type of security relationship, if any, will these emerging governments seek with the United States? And, what kinds of ties should Washington seek with Kabul and Baghdad? This study will examine the prospects for the development of long-term security relationships with both countries, focusing particularly on how political developments in each country will impact the kind of security relationships they seek and the appropriate U.S. responses. The study will consider the types of military commitments the United States might make with each country, focusing particularly on commitments with implications for air and space capabilities. Finally, the study will consider the broader security architecture that could develop in the greater Middle East and how relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan could be part of a larger set of linkages between the U.S. and key nations in this vast and important area.

Sponsor: AF/A5X; ACC/9th AF
Project Leader: David Thaler

Exploring New Concepts for Joint Air-Naval Operations

Military-technological developments are rendering fixed land bases and surface naval platforms increasingly at risk. At the same time, U.S. security policy and the security policies of key U.S. allies are increasingly dependent upon the ability of U.S. military forces to project military power in places where air and maritime power must cooperate more closely than previously has been the case. This study will examine the challenges that air and naval power will confront in important power projection missions, the capabilities of the U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, and allied military forces to cope with these problems, concepts for better leveraging these capabilities, and investments that may be needed to facilitate closer cooperation.

Sponsor: AF/A5X
Project Leader: Alan Vick

Anticipating and Managing Impediments to the Design and Execution of Effective Air Campaigns

This effort will complete a project begun in FY05. One of the Air Force’s core responsibilities is to develop airmen to be well versed in employing air and space assets in the pursuit of national objectives; that is, the art and science of devising air campaign strategy. This is an inherently complex and creative process. Every case is, in some ways, unique: we seldom have accurate information on the enemy’s perceptions, and guidance about overall objectives and strategy can sometimes be ambiguous. Not surprisingly, unanticipated factors often arise during the course of a conflict that complicate and constrain military operations or that call for major adjustments in strategy. This project will examine past conflicts to identify such factors and to suggest ways to mitigate them. It will seek to develop a concise “primer” to be used by those charged with developing air campaign strategies.

Sponsor: AF/A3O
Project Leader: David Ochmanek

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