Fiscal Year 2011 Research Agenda

Part of RAND Project AIR FORCE, the Force Modernization and Employment Program identifies and assesses ways in which technological advances and new operational concepts can improve the Air Force’s ability to satisfy a range of future operational demands. This research involves assessments of technology feasibility, performance, cost, and risk. PAF assesses major force components needed in the future and the systems and infrastructure supporting their operations.

---

Updated: 6/10/2011

Mission Assurance for Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications (NC3)

Project Leaders: George Nacouzi
Sponsors: AFGSC/A3*; AF/A10*; NGB/CF
Level of Effort (STE): 2.5

The purpose is to identify potential systems within the NC3 architecture that may be decommissioned in order to use the sustainment funds saved to accelerate NC3 modernization programs. Identify which, if any, specific systems can be eliminated while maintaining the required NC3 mission performance (integrated across air, space and cyber) in the post cold war threat environment. Recommend modifications to the NC3 systems to maintain or increase the effectiveness and readiness of the NC3 architecture and improve the credibility of the nuclear deterrent.

Space Situational Awareness and Maintaining Access and Use of Space

Project Leaders: Dave Baiocchi, Bill Welser
Sponsors: SAF/AQS*; AFSPC/CC*
Level of Effort (STE): 2.5

This project will examine the current state of the space preservation enterprise by analyzing the interplay between each of the following enterprise components: space situational awareness (SSA), orbital debris mitigation, and defense mechanisms and technologies. Using the new national space policy directive as a starting point, PAF will identify how these elements should evolve together to ensure that the US maintains access to and use of the space environment. This project will build upon SAF/USA-sponsored work begun in FY10.

Planning the USAF ISR Enterprise in the Post OIF/OEF World

Project Leaders: Amado Cordova, Lance Menthe
Sponsors: ACC/A8*, AF/A2*
Level of Effort (STE): 2.5

This project will help the Air Force plan the RPA based ISR force in the post-OIF/OEF timeframe. The first part of the study will identify the mix of RPA-based ISR capabilities the Air Force should be prepared to provide in the future security environment. The second part will make recommendations regarding technologies and organizational constructs to help the Air Force provide these capabilities more efficiently. The third part will examine future options for the existing RPA ISR fleet, including relocation, decommissioning, supporting other interdepartmental missions, and the implications of these options for the Air Force in terms of the ability to provide the capabilities identified in the first part of this study.

U.S. and Threat Non-Kinetic Capabilities

Project Leaders: Jeff Hagen, Lara Schmidt
Sponsor: PACAF/CC*
Level of Effort (STE): 3.0

This study will help the Air Force fully develop the potential of integrated kinetic and non-kinetic operations and avoid risks due to adversary non-kinetic capabilities. Non-kinetic effects delivered via space, cyber, electronic warfare, and influence operations are gaining confidence from operational commanders. These systems are not well-integrated into operational planning processes, limiting their ability to achieve synergies with kinetic weapon systems. At the same time, adversaries are developing significant capabilities of their own, which must be countered.

Assuring Beyond Line-of-Sight Communications for Airborne ISR

Project Leaders: Brien Alkire, Sherrill Lingel
Sponsor: AF/A2R*
Level of Effort (STE): 3.0

This study will evaluate the threats to assured delivery of communications and recommend approaches to protect beyond line-of-sight (BLOS) communications for future platforms and current platforms in ongoing operations. BLOS communications connect airborne ISR (AISR) platforms with globally distributed USAF resources that are required for mission success. This study will identify the demand for assured BLOS communications for AISR and assess the adequacy of sources of assured BLOS communications, including protected MILSATCOM.

Long Range Strike

Project Leaders: James Chow
Sponsors: AF/CV*; AF/A8
Level of Effort (STE): 1.0

This follow-on study will examine issues coming out of the OSD long-range strike (LRS) study and panels, including the kinds of systems the Air Force should design, develop, produce, and operate to deter adversaries and conduct long-range strikes. LRS continues to be an issue at the forefront of OSD’s and the Air Force’s modernization agenda. In FY10, RAND examined important facets of LRS issues for the Air Force and conducted the large OSD study, “Future Long Range Strike Force Mix.” This effort should support informed decisions regarding LRS investments and help the Air Force to address issues that emerge from OSD studies and panels.

Defense Considerations for Next-Generation Air Dominance

Project Leaders: James Chow, Ryan Henry
Sponsors: ACC/CV*
Level of Effort (STE): 1.5

This study will provide USAF leaders with insight into key military, defense, and geo-political issues associated with developing an advanced fighter aircraft capability. Emphasis will span: identifying critical capability drivers; validating military considerations; investigating broader defense concerns; delineating consequential issues and/or challenges associated with influential stakeholders external to the USAF; and developing an assumptions-based planning framework for future use by senior decision-makers. RMD 802 directed the USAF to “initiate an R&D effort towards a 6th generation TACAIR capability” in FY12. While Air Combat Command begins the JCIDS process to focus that R&D effort, an in-depth study into the broader military, defense and geo-political issues associated with developing an advanced fighter capability will provide the context for the development.

Next Generation ICBM — Maintaining Stability Using a New Land-based Deterrent Force

Project Leaders: Lauren Caston
Sponsors: AF/A10*; AFGSC/CC*
Level of Effort (STE): 2.5

This study will develop a concept for a new system of a land-based strategic deterrent. This system will incorporate enhancements to C2 architecture, required capabilities and modes of basing that allow the AF to attain the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) goal of maintaining strategic stability while providing the President more decision time to respond to an attack. Additionally, integration of any potential commonalities with the prompt global strike mission and the US Navy’s part of the nuclear triad ensures the AF meets NPR and DoD policy while in a fiscally constrained budget environment.

Sustaining the Low Observable Fleet: Moving From the F-22 to the F-35

Project Leaders: Natalie W. Crawford
Sponsor: ACC/CC*
Level of Effort (STE): 2.0

This study will provide the Air Force with options to mitigate sustainment issues with the F-22 and ensure lessons learned are applied to the F-35 program. PAF has been studying maintenance of the low observable fleet for two years. Major challenges remain in the standardization of maintenance practices, documentation, and data integrity across bases. It is now possible to assess the costs (dollars, manpower, availability) and make recommendations for improvements in these areas. This will include applying lessons learned from the B-2 and F-22 programs to the F-35 program, where appropriate.

Options for Addressing Potential CAF Capabilities Shortfalls

Project Leaders: Daniel Norton
Sponsors: ACC/A8*; NGB/CF
Level of Effort (STE): 2.5

This project first will assess the capability implications of potential F-35 program schedule slips and fleet-size reductions, and then will identify and assess options to address these shortfalls. Future reductions in funding and technical or programmatic issues within the F-35 program could lead to these shortfalls. Options to be considered will include the management and modernization of the legacy fleet.

Next Generation Weapons for AFSOC Gunships: Assessing Solid State Laser Technologies

Project Leaders: Jody Jacobs
Sponsor: AFSOC/CC*
Level of Effort (STE): 2.0

This study will assess Air Force modernization options for AC-130s and identify key directed energy (DE) technology challenges that must be resolved before initiating an acquisition strategy. DE weapons may represent an attractive choice in the weapons mix for USAF platforms. This study will identify AC-130 configurations incorporating DE weapons, target sets, and mission environments where DE provides enhanced capabilities, and cost estimates to complete technology maturation and acquisition.

NTISR Smart Book

Project Leaders: Bart Bennett
Sponsor: AF/A2C*
Level of Effort (STE): 1.0

This study will help the Air Force and DoD to better understand USAF’s non-traditional Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (NTISR) capabilities. The Air Force continues to use platforms that are not ‘traditional’ ISR platforms to conduct NTISR. Many within the Air Force are not aware of the ISR capabilities of the NTISR systems. This continuing project is entering its last year of development of an NTISR Smart Book that describes the characteristics, capabilities, and vignette effectiveness of NTISR platforms.

The National Space Policy: Allied Space Agreements and Collaborations

Project Leaders: Yool Kim, Gary McLeod
Sponsors: AF/A3/5*
Level of Effort (STE): 1.0

This project will assess ways the USAF may take a lead role in engaging allies and friends to identify areas of mutual interest and benefit within the National Security Space mission set as the new National Space Policy is implemented. PAF will build on prior work to identify potential areas for increased international cooperation and engagement, such as space situational awareness and missile warning. This cooperation might include partnerships in which the cost of space systems is shared, coalition interoperability is fostered, or foreign systems are leveraged to gain efficiencies, augment U.S. capabilities, and increase mission assurance. PAF researchers will also examine how such cooperation could potentially deter others from interference and attack.