Fiscal Year 2011 Research Agenda

The Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program concentrates on questions about workforce size and composition and about the best ways to recruit, train, pay, promote, and retain personnel. PAF's research encompasses the total workforce: active duty, guard, reserve, civilian, and contractor personnel.

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Updated: 6/10/2011

CAF Total Force Integration and Fighter Pilot Development

Project Leader: Daniel Norton
Sponsors: NGB/CF*; AF/RE; AF/A3O; AF/A1; SAF/MRR
Level of Effort (STE): 1.0

This project will explore paths toward more effective CAF total force integration. The project will build on potential CAF capability shortfalls and mitigating strategies to be explored in a companion project (“Options for Addressing Potential CAF Capabilities Shortfalls,” F180). It will examine how potential changes in aircraft fleet distribution, aggressive use of active and reserve unit associations, fighter pilot absorption, active force retention policy (active duty service commitment and bonuses), and complex interactions of all these factors will affect reserve affiliation rates and total fighter pilot inventories in both active and reserve components. Alternatives will be explored with the objective of reducing stresses on the forces in both components.

Predictive Model for ARC Volunteerism

Project Leaders: Lionel Galway, John Winkler
Sponsors: AF/RE*; NGB/CF; AF/A3O; AF/A1; SAF/MRR
Level of Effort (STE): 0.5

This project will provide to the Air Force's Reserve Components analytically-based estimates of future volunteer rates. It continues work originally included in the PAF Research Plan and executed in 2007. Because of the poor quality of the data available at the time, PAF was unable to obtain good results. In the years since then, PAF has continued work at a low level of effort (covered under concept development funding) to assess the gradually-improving data made available by the reserve components and to use the data to update predictive models. In FY11, fresh data will be available and the models will be completely reestimated. In parallel, PAF will assist the AFR in using an ongoing survey program to obtain prospective volunteerism information from reservists. These efforts will provide the ARC a clearer sense of its capacity to accept ongoing deployment taskings and may reduce stress on active duty forces through expanded ARC acceptance of deployment taskings.

The Relative Cost of Active and Reserve Component Units

Project Leaders: Al Robbert
Sponsors: SAF/MRR*
Level of Effort (STE): 0.5

The objective of this project is to determine the relative cost of active and reserve units, with the latter in both strategic and operational reserve roles. The project is intended to support ongoing Air Force deliberations with OSD(RA) on the role of the reserve forces. Cost studies will attempt to capture the marginal costs of operating, maintaining, and supporting flying units while in garrison (an indicator of relative costs when reserve forces serve as a strategic reserve) and when allocated across the available level of support for deployment operations (an indicator of relative costs when reserve forces serve as an operational reserve).

Program and Facility Support for Airman and Family Resiliency

Project Leaders: Sarah Meadows, Laura Miller
Sponsors: AF/A1S*; SAF/MRM; AF/SG
Level of Effort (STE): 2.0

The purpose of this effort is to assist the Air Force in devising and evaluating programs to increase the resiliency of airmen and their families in the face of the mounting stresses of deployment and other aspects of military service. Responsibility for this work was recently shifted from AF/SG to AF/A1. PAF’s expertise in this topic, deepened through past work on airman and spouse quality-of-life issues, ongoing work on suicides and wellness in the AFMC civil service workforce, participation in the Air Force’s Ft. Hood follow-up study, and other similar work puts PAF in an strong position to help the A1 staff respond to CSAF’s urgency in pressing for program improvements. Anticipated impacts include: better resistance to stress by airmen and their families; fewer suicides, reduced mental health treatment stigma, less substance abuse, less family turmoil; reduced attrition; and healthier, more productive airmen.

Tracking the Effectiveness of Warrior and Survivor Care

Project Leader: Carra Sims
Sponsors: SAF/MR*; AF/A1S; NGB/CF; AF/SG
Level of Effort (STE): 1.25

The purpose of this effort is to help Air Force and DoD leaders ensure that wounded warriors and their families are properly cared for after they are medically separated or retired. The study will include topics such as employment, medical care, family and other interpersonal relationships, child care, relocation issues, financial concerns, law enforcement involvement, education, etc. In the first phase of this study, which was completed in FY10, PAF constructed a survey instrument, identified a sampling framework, and gained approval to administer the survey. The FY11 phase will be to deploy the survey across the Air Force.

Sustainability of Nuclear Human Capital Requirements

Project Leader: Ray Conley
Sponsors: AF/A1D*; NGB/CF; AF/A10
Level of Effort (STE): 0.25

The purpose of this effort is to continue examining management of the nuclear workforce and sustainability of requirements for individuals with nuclear experience. In previous work, PAF developed a workforce model applicable to this issue. This project enables us to exercise the model as needed in examining workforce changes resulting from Strategic Arms Limitations Talks or other considerations.

Implementing Repeal of Sexual Orientation Policies

Project Leader: Laura Miller
Sponsors: AF/A1P*; AF/A1D
Level of Effort (STE): 0.25

The effort is supporting Air Force preparation for implementation of the repeal of the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy banning open service of gay and lesbian service members.

Enhancing Force Management and Development

Project Leaders: Bart Bennett, Ray Conley, Nelson Lim, Al Robbert, Michael Schiefer
Sponsors: AF/A1D*; AF/CVA; SAF/MRM
Level of Effort (STE): 5.0

The purpose of this effort is to examine officer development patterns and recommend approaches for the Air Force to manage its people, balancing functional development and institutional needs. The project will also provide analytic support for the Air Force’s Force Management and Development Council and its sub-panels. As an umbrella project, specific tasks are identified through deliberations of the Council and panels. In response to AF/CVA interest, this project could also house a task to examine undoing the space/missile career field merger. Sensitive tasks involve unacknowledged PAF roles, per sponsor request.

Aligning Rated Officer Supply and Demand

Project Leader: Ray Conley
Sponsors: AF/A3/5*; AF/A1; AF/A1P; AF/RE; NGB/CF
Level of Effort (STE): 1.5

The purpose of this effort is to provide ongoing analysis of aircrew management issues, primarily in support of deliberations by the Air Force’s Aircrew Management Executive Council. The planned focus in FY11 will be on total force integration as a path to bringing total force supply of aircrew resources (represented by blue lines in slides routinely used to brief senior Air Force leaders) toward convergence with total demand (represented by red lines). Continuing support will also be provided for a proposed fighter inventory integrated process team, which will focus on the aircrew community with the most pronounced and critical shortages. The project relies in part on PAF’s fighter absorption model, which simulates MDS-level pilot development and utilization phenomena and can be readily adapted to reflect total force outcomes.

Reducing Barriers to Diversity

Project Leaders: Lawrence Hanser, Lou Mariano
Sponsors: SAF/MRD*; AF/A1; AF/A1D
Level of Effort (STE): 2.0

The purpose of this effort is to identify barriers to diversity in Air Force workforces and to recommend policy and program changes that could reduce or eliminate the barriers. Past research has shown that minority representation is at appropriate levels at the entry level in officer, enlisted, and civilian workforces, but that representation declines at higher grades. Part of this effort will focus on aptitude distributions, recruiting methods, and mentoring processes affecting career field choices of individuals in officer accession programs (ROTC, OTS, and USAFA). Other efforts will focus on barriers in enlisted and civilian workforces. The intent is for this research to lead to changes in officer accession and recruiting processes to obtain higher aptitude distributions among minorities and changes in mentoring and classification processes to obtain more minority entries into operational career fields.

Scientific, Technical, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Manpower Requirements

Project Leaders: William Canny, Craig Moore
Sponsors: SAF/AQ; SAF/AQX*; SAF/MRM; SAF/MRD; AF/A1D; AF/A1M; AF/A1P
Level of Effort (STE): 1.0

The purpose of this effort is to assist the Air Force in acquiring sufficient STEM-educated officers and civil service employees to meet its needs, including mandatory prerequisites in career fields where they exist and desired levels in career fields (primarily operational) without mandatory STEM prerequisites. Tasks include assessing current supply and demand, examining accession and hiring processes, exploring options to increase availability in the external market, and examining future requirements.

Enhancing Personnel Selection and Screening Methods

Project Leaders: Chaitra Hardison, Michael Mattock, Carra Sims
Sponsors: AF/A1P*; SAF/MRM
Level of Effort (STE): 3.0

The purpose of this effort is to enhance human capital acquisition and development through a portfolio of personnel selection and screening studies. Potential tasks for FY11 are (a) improve selections for sensitive, high-demand AFSCs such as remotely piloted aircraft, cyber, intel, and Personnel Reliability Program-related AFSCs; (b) review and validate AFROTC, OTS, and USAFA officer selection processes; (c) review Weighted Airman Promotion System testing; (d) integrate functional and institutional competency management efforts (2010 NDAA requirement); and (e) assess the effectiveness of special and incentive pays.

Stress Inoculation in Battlefield Airman Training

Project Leader: Sean Robson
Sponsor: AETC/A2/3/10*
Level of Effort (STE): 0.5

The purpose of this effort is to understand how Air Education and Training Command can integrate stress inoculation training into existing battlefield airmen (BA) training courses (pararescue, combat controller, tactical air control party, special ops weather). This study should examine stress inoculation training currently being conducted by the Marine Corps, Navy SEALS, and Army special forces. Based upon that review, as well as a comprehensive literature review, the study should provide best-practice approaches to conducting stress inoculation training within the existing BA training pipeline.

Senior Civilian Performance and Succession Management

Project Leader: John Boon
Sponsor: AF/A1*
Level of Effort (STE): 0.5

The purpose of this effort is to support performance and succession management processes for senior civilians -- Senior Executive Service (SES), Senior Level (SL), Scientific/Professional (S), Defense Intel SES (DISES), and Defense Intel Senior Level (DISL). PAF provides analytic support that is beyond the skill sets of the in-house workforce and is authorized access to extremely sensitive information.