Fiscal Year 2011 Research Agenda

The Strategy and Doctrine Program seeks to increase knowledge and understanding of geopolitical and other problems in the national security environment that affect Air Force operations. PAF maintains expertise in defense strategy; regional analysis; the objectives and tasks of evolving joint operations; and the potential contributions of air and space power to joint operations, defense planning, and requirements for force development.

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Updated: 6/10/2011

Dismantling Havens in the PAKAF Border Area

Project Leaders: Kim Cragin, Stephen Hosmer, Alexander Hou
Sponsors: AF/CC-SA; AF/A5X
Level of Effort (STE): 3.0

This project will examine U.S. approaches to address the threats and the population in the Afghanistan — Pakistan border region when a COIN approach is not an appropriate option. In FY10, PAF found that al-Qaeda and associated movements will likely maintain safe havens in the Pakistan-Afghanistan (PAKAF) border area for the foreseeable future and that COIN is not likely to be successful in the PAKAF region. Therefore, this follow-on study will address potential U.S. courses of action, including ISR (and other forms of military intelligence), building partnership programs, and law enforcement contributions in the PAKAF border area. This project will also distill lessons regarding the psychological effects of lethal and non-lethal COIN operations on enemy and friendly forces, leaders, and civilian populations in the PAKAF border area, and will consider how desired psychological effects might be maximized in future air operations.

Politics, Partnerships, and Force Posture in Northeast Asia

Project Leader: Alan Vick
Sponsor: PACAF/A3/5/8*
Level of Effort (STE): 3.0

As U.S. military relations evolve in northeast Asia, this project will address how increasingly limited Air Force resources are best distributed and employed in support of U.S. national security objectives. It is intended to assist PACAF address policy and posture trade-offs between Korea and Japan, if necessary. This research project will also contribute to global posture work in project S195.

Future Air Force Posture in Southwest Asia

Project Leaders: David Frelinger, Alan Vick
Sponsors: AF/CC-SA; AF/A5X*; AF/A8X
Level of Effort (STE): 3.0

This project builds on recent PAF analyses that assessed USAF basing and force structure requirements in the Pacific. This study will 1) identify emerging anti-access threats in Southwest Asia; 2) assess their potential impact on U.S. regional security objectives; and 3) assess future USAF force posture to include basing, deployment, and force structure options to best address US and regional security interests in southwest Asia. Analysis will address deterrence, crisis management, and warfighting dimensions of the problem. This research project will also contribute to global posture work in project S1195.

Regional Expertise for the FY11 Futures Game

Project Leader: Alireza Nader
Sponsor: AF/A8X*
Level of Effort (STE): 1.0

This project will provide timely, rigorous, and relevant support to the FY11 Futures Game (FG11) game. Routine interaction and quick-turn deliveries to the client will help ensure that FG11 fully accounts for complex regional dynamics — thereby leading to more realistic and meaningful game outcomes.

US/China Scorecards: Continuing to Characterize Symmetric and Asymmetric Dimensions

Project Leader: Eric Heginbotham
Sponsor: AF/CV*
Level of Effort (STE): 2.5

This project will continue PAF's FY10 "High-End Asymmetries: A U.S. - China Analysis" project, which is characterizing the military competition between China and the United States in its various symmetric and asymmetric dimensions. This FY11 project will build upon the current work in several ways:

• Perform analyses at higher classification levels for scorecards where higher classified data / information would significantly enhance the fidelity.
• Identify potential “game changers” — including technological advancements and/or changes in the strategic / geo-political environment — that could significantly alter the status of one or more scorecards
• Apply the scorecard methodology more systematically and fully to different capability contests, such as cyber and/or electronic warfare.
• Perform a similar scorecard analysis for a wider set of plausible scenarios.

This project will also address related urgent analytical requests from the sponsor and other USAF commands and offices.

Implementing the Air, Space, and Cyber Country Plans for the AF Campaign Support Plan

Project Leader: Jennifer Moroney
Sponsors: AF/A5X*; SAF/IAG
Level of Effort (STE): 1.5

This study will continue the FY10 PAF development of options for a new USAF air, space, and cyber (ASC) country plan concept by moving the next logical phase—implementing the concept through a few selected country test cases. This approach has the potential to become a model across DoD for developing and implementing country building partnership plans based not only on COCOM or service-level interests, but across functional domains (in this case, aviation), and across the U.S. Government. With a country-specific focus, the team would reach out to the Air Force, other services, Guard/Reserves (e.g., State Partnership Program), other U.S. Government agencies (e.g., DOS, DOT/FAA), and key allies (e.g., UK, France) to develop and attempt to implement a few ASC country plans with each stakeholder.

Conventional Conflict with Nuclear Rogues

Project Leader: Ryan Henry
Sponsors: AF/A3/5*; AF/A8*
Level of Effort (STE): 3.0

Rogue states have realized that obtaining a nuclear arsenal is the one capability that will inoculate them from U.S.-imposed regime change. Should these states precipitate conflict with the United States, our current form of warfare against such states (e.g. stressing the regime's hold on power through speed, stealth, and precision aimed at its center-of-gravity) would accelerate events toward a nuclear threshold. Nuclear confrontation over regional issues with a regional rogue would run counter to our global and strategic interests. Therefore, the United States will need to develop a new strategy and forms of deterrence (and conflict should deterrence fail) to deal with these rogues as they acquire and begin to brandish their nuclear arsenal. This project should help USAF planners/operators to conceive strategies, force structures, and postures suitable to waging a conventional conflict against a rogue nuclear adversary – both before and after a nuclear weapon has been used.

What Is Driving China’s Central Asia Policy and Should That Impact USAF Force Posture?

Project Leader: Andrew Scobell
Sponsors: AF/A5X*; AF/A8X
Level of Effort (STE): 1.5

This project will explore what is driving China’s Central Asia Policy, including Afghanistan, and the implications for the U.S. military posture in the region. Since the disintegration of the USSR, Beijing has embarked on a bold initiative to improve its relations with the capitals in the region and expand China’s influence. Today China has good relations with virtually every country in Central Asia and is generally seen as a constructive and important partner—diplomatically, economically, and even militarily. Chinese activities and aspirations also directly impact U.S. interests and initiatives in the region, and they affect the security situation and ongoing U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and the Central Asian "stans". This project will contribute to global posture work outlined in S195.

Cost-Based Analysis of the BP Mission Performed by Forward-Based Forces in Europe

Project Leader: Jennifer Moroney
Sponsors: USAFE/A5/8/9*
Level of Effort (STE): 1.5

This project will develop an objective assessment of the impact of changes to USAF force posture in Europe on the COCOM and Air Force's ability to conduct building partnership (BP) missions in the AOR. This assessment will use actual cost data, several possible courses of action, including taking into account new force posture realities, particularly if USAFE forces in Europe are reduced. Beyond Europe, the findings are likely to have implications for other AORs—especially Africa. Courses of action will include ways to more effectively utilize USAF Guard/Reserve and key allies in a BP context with reduced active duty forces and force structure in Europe.

Evaluate the Relationship between the Air Force’s Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation Processes

Project Leader: Cynthia Cook
Sponsors: AF/A8*; AF/A1X
Level of Effort (STE): 1.5

This project will provide an outside assessment of the Air Force's strategic planning process, looking across the process from strategy formulation through resourcing and execution. It will be grounded in the AF’s roles and functions and will focus on how strategic planning can help prioritize and allocate limited resources in a dynamic security environment. As part of the study it will consider the roles of HQ USAF, the MAJCOMs, and critical external actors such as OSD and the Combatant Commanders.

Air Power, Command of the Commons, and Global Posture

Project Leader: Lynn Davis
Sponsors: AF/A8X*
Level of Effort (STE): 1.0

This project examines questions such as: are the global commons divisible? Are there critical regional dimensions to the commons that require a tailored force posture to ensure command of the commons? To address these questions this study will develop an approach to address the totality of the global commons (air, sea, space and cyber). This should lead to a deeper understanding of the geopolitical interests at stake as well as the role of air power, and its associated force posture, in protecting those interests. It should improve planners’ understanding of the relationship between anti-access and command of the commons strategies and provide a comprehensive framework for thinking about global posture, including air, space, and cyber space. This study is the foundation for other SDP FY11 research projects with force posture components.