The RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition was established in 2001 through a generous $5 million pledge from RAND alumnus Frederick S. Pardee. The RAND Pardee Center aims to enhance the overall future quality and condition of human life by aggressively disseminating and applying new methods for long-term policy analysis in a wide variety of policy areas where they are needed most.
The Pardee Center organizes its activities around two main themes: (1) advancing the state-of the-art in conducting long-term policy analysis so organizations can implement better long-range policy; and (2) developing and disseminating approaches that will help make proper stewardship for the future be more commonly practiced.
The RAND Pardee Center recently helped the Grantham Institute and Georgia Tech sponsor a workshop on "Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions." The workshop brought together experts from the United Kingdom and the United States, and included participants from industry, government and academia.
Pardee Center partners conducted "Decisions for the Decade," a game based on robust decision making concepts, with leaders of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
RAND’s Analytica model allowed the team to explore how options, including adaptation, retreat from non-protectable areas and infrastructure investments, could reduce risk over a range of uncertain conditions.
Robert Lempert joined the Climate Ready Water Utilities Webinar Series to share an overview of RAND's Robust Decision Making methods. He addressed the analytic and organizational challenges posed by managing infrastructure risk and outlined how organizations can use RDM to inform flexible and robust plans that manage climate and other uncertainties.
At UCLA’s Marschak Colloquium on the Long-Term Political Sustainability of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Policies, Robert Lempert shared how RAND employs new agent-based, game theoretic integrated assessment models within a robust decision making framework to compare how alternative architectures of near-term climate policies influence their long-term evolution.
At a panel discussion for the Regional Council of the Southern California Association of Governments, Robert Lempert summarized the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on scientific evidence for climate change, discussed principles of climate risk management, and presented RAND’s work with the Bureau of Reclamation on its Supply and Demand study for the Colorado River.
Robust Decision Making showed El Dorado Irrigation District managers the results of key trade-offs among future strategies and how expectations for future vulnerable conditions can guide decisions to augment their long-term plan.
The Colorado River Basin Study evaluated the river system's resiliency and compared resource management options. The Robust Decision Making methodology helped to identify vulnerabilities and compare portfolios of options.
This report describes a proof-of-concept analysis using Robust Decision Making to evaluate water resource management response packages for California's Central Valley under future uncertainty for the California Water Plan Update 2013.
"Managing the Risk of Catastrophes," the topic of Robert Lempert's presentation at the New York Federal Reserve Bank's conference on protecting critical urban infrastructure, described the benefits of RDM methods and presented RAND's work with Louisiana and the Port of Los Angeles.
Scenario discovery offers a new means to characterize and communicate the information in computer simulation models under conditions of deep uncertainty.
A new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), examines challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. Developing SSPs with a "backwards" approach could help inform the development of SSPs to ensure the storylines focus on the driving forces most relevant to distinguishing between the SSPs.
Many objective robust decision making (MORDM) combines concepts and methods from many objective evolutionary optimization and robust decision making (RDM), along with extensive use of interactive visual analytics, to facilitate the management of complex environmental systems.