A critical analysis and evaluation of the Delphi technique, a systematic method for eliciting expert opinion on a variety of topics.
An experiment designed to discover whether the results of laboratory studies dealing with general (almanac) information are relevant to the applied case when the true answer is unknown. Using short-range prediction questions as subject matter, the experiment indicates that, in general, Delphi procedures are at least as effective with short-range prediction as they have been for almanac material.
One of a series of studies using Delphi procedures to aid decisionmakers in dealing with value judgments. Previous studies have not clearly shown that there is an appropriate population of factual questions to compare with value judgments; the variability of performance on factual questions is large, depending on the type of questions asked.
An investigation of the effect on group accuracy of two variations in the Delphi procedures.
An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.
This Memorandum is a supplement to RM-5888-PR and presents material used in a series of experiments evaluating the Delphi procedures for formulating and refining group judgments, as well as a bibliography of RAND publications related to Delphi studies.
This report describes the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968 that were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.
Delphi and Values — 1969
An analysis of the utility of the Delphi method for determining group values.
Predicting the Future — 1968
The difficulties (such as the influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) of obtaining a group opinion through traditional face-to-face interaction led to the development of the Delphi procedures, which are described.
The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments.
A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied.
An explanation of the experimental Delphi technique, a systematic procedure for obtaining the opinions of experts on a particular subject.
Delphi — 1967
An outline of the Delphi technique of long-range forecasting by separately eliciting and refining the opinions of a group of advisers without contact among them, and calculating a statistical
A description of the Delphi Technique which attempts to make effective use of informed intuitive judgment in long-range forecasting.
A description of the Delphi technique, a method for the systematic solicitation and collation of expert opinions, and its applications to educational planning.
A report on an experiment in the use of expert opinions. The experiment, involving the Delphi technique and the computation of a consensus based on self-appraised competence ratings, is described and its results analyzed.
A discussion of studies directed toward the improved use of expert opinions in operations research. The Delphi method as applied to consensus research is discussed and the results of experiments directed toward convergence of expert opinions present.
A consideration of operations research as a science, though an inexact one.
An unrestricted abridgement and revision of a report on an experiment in the use of experts for estimation and decision making, which was part of a series of experiments performed at RAND, designated internally as "Project Delphi."
A new epistemological approach to the inexact sciences, which include applied physical sciences, such as engineering and medicine, as well as most of the social sciences.