Pardee Center Publications
Futures Methodologies
RAND has pioneered a variety of methodologies, both for looking into
the future and for conducting strategic planning. Four specific "futures"
methodologies received varying amounts of methodological work –
Delphi, Probabilistic Forecasts,
Scenarios, and the current computer-assisted
reasoning work. In addition, there is a wide variety of other
methodological work related to the future that has been done over
the years.
The following publications are listed in reverse chronological order.
Publications that are available online will have a link to a "Full
Document";
links to "Document Abstract " generally include an abstract
of the publication along with ordering information.
Delphi
Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process
- 1974
Harold Sackman, R-1283-PR
Document Abstract
Comparison of Group Judgment Techniques with Short-Range Predictions
and Almanac Questions -1971
Norman Crolee Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown, R-0678-ARPA
Document Abstract
Experimental Assessment of Delphi Procedures with Group Value Judgments
-1971
Norman Crolee Dalkey, D.L. Rourke, R-0612-ARPA
Document Abstract
The Delphi Method, IV: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of
Relevant Facts -1970
Norman Crolee Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown, S.W. Cochran, RM-6118-PR
Document Abstract
The Delphi Method, III: Use of Self-Ratings To Improve Group Estimates
- 1969
Norman Crolee Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown, S.W. Cochran, RM-6115-PR
Document Abstract
The Delphi Method, II: Structure of Experiments -
1969
Bernice B. Brown, S.W. Cochran, Norman Crolee Dalkey, RM-5957-PR
Document Abstract
The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion
- 1969
Norman Crolee Dalkey, RM-5888-PR
Document Abstract
Experiments in Group Prediction - 1968
Norman Crolee Dalkey, P-3820
Document Abstract
Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of
Experts - 1968
Bernice B. Brown, P-3925
Document Abstract
Systematic Use of Expert Opinions -1967
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-3721
Document Abstract
Analysis of the Future: The Delphi Method -1967
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-3558
Document Abstract
The Use of the Delphi Technique in Problems of Educational Innovations
- 1966
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-3499
Document Abstract
Improving the Reliability of Estimates Obtained from a Consensus of
Experts -1964
Bernice B. Brown, Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-2986
Document Abstract
Convergence of Expert Consensus Through Feedback
- 1964
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-2973
Document Abstract
The Systematic Use of Expert Judgment in Operations Research
-1963
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-2795
Document Abstract
An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts
- 1962
Norman Crolee Dalkey, Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, RM-727-PR
Document Abstract
Probabilistic Forecasts
A Probabilistic Forecasting Methodology Applied to Electric Energy Consumption
-1973
Richard G. Salter, R-0993-NSF
Document Abstract
An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting - 1973
Thomas A. Brown, R-0944-ARPA
Document Abstract
Probabilistic Forecasts and Reproducing Scoring Systems
- 1970
Thomas A. Brown, RM-6299-ARPA
Document Abstract
Scenarios
An Analytic Method for Constructing Scenarios from a Subjective Joint
Probability Distribution -1986
Frank A. Camm, James K. Hammitt, N-2442-EPA
Document Abstract
A Contextual Approach to Scenario Construction -
1973
Harvey A. DeWeerd, P-5084
Document Abstract
Accommodating Increased Demands for Public Participation in Urban Renewal
Decisionmaking - 1972
Garry D. Brewer, P-4868
Document Abstract
Dealing with Complex Social Problems: The Potential of the "Decision
Seminar," -1972
Garry D. Brewer, P-4894
Document Abstract
UNCLE--A New Force Exchange Model for Analyzing Strategic Uncertainty
Levels - 1969
Donald E. Emerson, R-0480-PR
Document Abstract
Systems Analysis and Policy Planning; Applications in Defense
- 1968
E.S. Quade, Wayne I. Boucher, R-0439-PR
Document Abstract
Exploratory Modeling/Computer-Assisted Reasoning
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term
Policy Analysis -2003
Robert J. Lempert, Steven Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, MR-1626-CR
Full
Document
A New Decision Sciences for Complex Systems - 2002
Robert J. Lempert, LRP-200205-14
Document Abstract
Computer-Assisted Reasoning - 2002
Steven C. Bankes, Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, LRP-200103-15
Document Abstract
Confronting Surprise - 2002
Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes, LRP-200212-01
Document Abstract
Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change - 2001
Robert J. Lempert, M.E. Schlesinger, RP-904
Document Abstract
The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis
- 2001
Thomas S. Szayna, Daniel Byman, Steven C. Bankes, Derek Eaton, Seth
G. Jones, Robert Mullins, Ian O. Lesser, William Grey Rosenau, MR-1346-A
Full
Document
Expandability of the 21st Century Army - 2000
James A. Dewar, Steven C. Bankes, Sean Edwards, MR-1190-A
Full
Document
New Methods for Robust Science and Technology Planning
- 1998
Robert J. Lempert, James Bonomo, DB-238-DARPA
Document Abstract
The Class of 2014: Preserving Access to California Higher Education
-1998
George S. Park, Robert J. Lempert, MR-971-EDU
Full
Document
Weapon Mix and Exploratory Analysis: A Case Study
- 1997
Arthur C. Brooks, Steven C. Bankes, Bart Bennett, DB-216/2-AF
Document Abstract
Computational Experiments and Exploratory Modeling
- 1994
Steven C. Bankes, RP-273
Document Abstract
Validation of Exploratory Modeling - 1994
Steven C. Bankes, James Gillogly, RP-298
Document Abstract
Exploratory Modeling: Search Through Spaces of Computational Experiments
-1994
Steven C. Bankes, James Gillogly, RP-345
Document Abstract
Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis - 1993
Steven C. Bankes, RP-211
Document Abstract
Miscellaneous Futures-Related Methodologies
Toward an Assessment of Technology Gaming - 1989
James A. Dewar, P-7593
Document Abstract
A Metaphor for Thinking About Changes in Army Doctrine
- 1988
James A. Dewar, Morlie H. Levin, P-7487
Document Abstract
A Short Guide to Electric Utility Load Forecasting
- 1986
Bridger M. Mitchell, Judith Wilson Ross, Rolla Edward Park, R-3315-PSSP
Document Abstract
Futures Studies and the Policy Sciences - 1984
Peter DeLeon, P-7000
Document Abstract
An Approach to Long-Range Forecasting - 1981
J.E. Murray, N-1609-DIA
Document Abstract
Qualitative Controlled Feedback for Forming Group Judgments and Making
Decisions - 1979
S. James Press, P-6290
Document Abstract
An Empirical Study of a New Method for Forming Group Judgments: Qualitative
Controlled Feedback - 1979
S. James Press, M.W. Ali, C.E. Yang, P-6333
Document Abstract
Introduction to the USAF Total Force Cost Model -1977
H.G. Massey, R-2098-AF
Document Abstract
Toward More Effective Use of Expert Opinion: Preliminary Investigation
of Participatory Polling for Long-Range Planning -
1976
Harold Sackman, P-5570
Document Abstract
Collecting and Analyzing Expert Group Judgment Data
- 1975
Alvin J. Harman, S. James Press, P-5467
Document Abstract
Methodology for Subjective Assessment of Technological Advancement
-1975
S. James Press, Alvin J. Harman, Marc Nerlove, R-1375
Document Abstract
Projecting California's Electrical Energy Demand
-1973
W.E. Mooz, P-4956
Document Abstract
Predicting Changes in Urban Form from Transportation System Changes:
A Proposed Methodology -1973
John H. Enns, Burke K. Burright, Peter DeLeon, B.F. Goeller, P-4960
Document Abstract
A Population Projection Model: Description of a Computer Program and
Illustrations of Its Policy Applications - 1972
K.M. Maurer, T.P. Schultz, R-0953-AID
Document Abstract
Population Distribution Policy: Issues and Objectives
- 1972
Peter A. Morrison, P-4793
Document Abstract
Policy and the Study of the Future: Given Complexity, Trends or Processes?
- 1972
Ronald D. Brunner, Garry D. Brewer, P-4912
Document Abstract
Social Forecasting and the Problem of Changing Values, with Special
Reference to Soviet and East European Writings - 1971
Fred Charles Iklé, P-4550
Document Abstract
An Elementary Cross-Impact Model - 1971
Norman Crolee Dalkey, R-0677-ARPA
Document Abstract
Forecasting Asian Strategic Environments for National Security Decisionmaking:
A Report and a Method - 1970
W. Wilcox, RM-6154-PR
Document Abstract
A Policy Sciences View of Future Studies: Alternative Futures and Present
Action - 1970
Yehezkel Dror, P-4305
Document Abstract
Alternative Domestic Politics Futures (ADPF): Research Needs and Research
Design - 1970
Yehezkel Dror, P-4306
Document Abstract
Some Comments on Conceptual Frameworks for Comparing Alternatives
- 1970
Gene Harvey Fisher, P-4506
Document Abstract
The Prediction of Political Feasibility - 1969
Yehezkel Dror, P-4044
Document Abstract
Reducing Lead-Time Through Improved Technological Forecasting: Some
Specific Suggestions for More Usefully Formulated Projections of Technological
Availability - 1969
D. Novick, Frederick S. Pardee, P-4122
Document Abstract
New Developments in Early Forecasting of Public Problems: A New Intellectual
Climate - 1967
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-3576
Document Abstract
Methodology of Societal Studies - 1967
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-3611
Document Abstract
Technological Projection and Advanced Product Planning
- 1967
Frederick S. Pardee, P-3622
Document Abstract
Some Comments on the Problem of Self-Affecting Predictions
-1967
R.H. Rochberg, P-3735
Document Abstract
Long-Range Planning Through Program Budgeting -1967
D. Novick, P-3850
Document Abstract
Mathematical Dowsers and Digital Diviners -1965
Richard Ernest Bellman, P-3049
Document Abstract
State-of-the-Art Projection and Long-Range Planning of Applied Research
-1965
Frederick S. Pardee, P-3181
Document Abstract
Game-Simulation and Long-Range Planning -1961
Robert M. Rauner, W.A. Steger, P-2355
Document Abstract
The Application of Random Sampling Simulation to Reliability Estimating
- 1959
Sidney I. Firstman, P-1638
Document Abstract
Comparison of Input-Output and Alternative Projections, 1929 through
1939 - 1951
Selma S. Arrow, P-239
Document Abstract
The Prediction of Social and Technological Events
- 1949
A. Kaplan, A.L. Skogstad, M.A. Girshick, P-93
Document Abstract
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