
The California Department of Social Services contracted with RAND for an independent evaluation of CalWORKs to assess both policy implementation and its impact at both the state and county levels.
In conducting the initial process analysis, which focused on CalWORKs implementation through early December 1998, we found four emerging issues.
The counties are moving forward with programs to address the key implementation requirements. However, because of the timing of the passage of the CalWORKs legislation, the counties had to implement these programs with little time for reviewing best practices, creating manuals, training staff, or pilot-testing programs. In addition, the management structures, quality-assurance systems, exception-handling policies, and data-collection systems--all of which would ideally have been in place before implementation--were often not fully developed.
Many counties claim great success with job club: Of those who participate in job club, job placement rates appear to be quite high, often between 60 and 85 percent. However, these estimates refer to "those who participate," which turns out to be a small fraction of those assigned to job club (often a third or less).
Most counties are still developing their sanction programs, although they are concerned that, even when sanctions are imposed, they will be ineffective. First, sanctions are not large: To protect children, the state limited the sanction to the adult portion of the grant rather than the full grant. Second, sanctions are not swift: Counties can be slow to impose them, and even counties that are swift to sanction lack fully effective computer systems, further delaying when sanctions are sent out. Third, sanctions are not sure: They may be waived for "good cause," and some counties use a broad definition of "good cause."
However, a series of factors will determine whether such high levels of funding will continue. So far, the counties have focused on relatively inexpensive enrollment and job search activities; funding the later work and support services activities is likely to be more expensive, and the demand for expensive services is likely to grow. Of course, caseloads could continue to decline, which would further increase per-case funds.
Alternatively, a worsening economy could drive caseloads up and decrease funds per case. Moreover, available funding will shrink once carryover funds are expended. Finally, changes in funding level are also possible, with funds being reallocated away from welfare populations.
Given this uncertainty, counties are taking approaches to implementation that vary in their level of caution. While some are allocating funds for a "rainy day," others are considering significant expansions of their mission and activities.

A full-time minimum-wage job pays even better. As shown in the figure, full-time employment at the minimum wage yields total monthly household resources of $1,449--38 percent above the poverty line. At this point, the package of benefits relies almost equally on the CalWORKs grant and the other transfers.
While moving recipients to this level would lift them out of poverty, the stated goal of CalWORKs is to move them off aid altogether--to self-sufficiency--through employment. What kind of a job does this require? The figure shows that a family of three will need a full-time job paying $8.26 to be ineligible for cash assistance.
Getting current recipients jobs with sufficient hours, with high enough wages, and within the time limits will prove challenging.
While it is too early in the implementation of CalWORKs and in our evaluation of it to reach definitive conclusions, these four issues are being used as a guide for the follow-on fieldwork and quantitative analysis being conducted over the remaining two and a half years of the evaluation.
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