Document Information
Health Status and Medical Treatment of the Future Elderly
Final Report
The ability to predict future health care costs reasonably accurately is critical to planning for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The models used for such projections to date, however, are limited in terms of their capacity to take into account the complex array of factors likely to affect future spending. To improve CMS’s ability to map the effects on spending of such factors as medical breakthroughs and demographic trends, RAND Health developed the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic-economic model framework of health spending projections that enables the user to answer “what-if” questions about the effects of changes in health status and disease treatment on future health care costs. What distinguishes the FEM from other models is its inclusion of a multidimensional characterization of health status, which allows the user to include a richer set of demographic controls as well as comorbid conditions and functional status. This report describes the development of the FEM and its application in four clinical areas: cardiovascular disease, the biology of aging and cancer, neurological disease, and changes in health care services. Beside those involved in planning at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, it should be of interest to health policy planners and health economists.
See Also:
Support RAND Research — Buy This Product!
Paperback Cover Price: $30.00
Discounted Web Price: $27.00
Pages: 264
ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-3653-X
Free, downloadable PDF file(s) are available below.
RAND makes an electronic version of this document available for free as a public service. If you find this information valuable, please consider purchasing a paper copy of the full document to help support RAND research.
Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience.
Contents
Chapter One:
Introduction
Chapter Two:
Prospects for Medical Advances in the 21st Century
Chapter Three:
The Medical Expert Panels
Chapter Four:
The Future Elderly Model
Chapter Five:
Health Expenditures
Chapter Six:
Health Status
Chapter Seven:
The Health Status of Future Medicare-Entering Cohorts
Chapter Eight:
Scenarios
Chapter Nine:
Usefulness to the Office of the Actuary
Chapter Ten:
Conclusions
Appendix A:
Methods for Identifying and Quantifying Key Breakthroughs
Appendix B:
The Social Science Expert Panel
Appendix C:
Names And Affiliations of Experts
Appendix D:
Literature Search Strategies
The research described in the report was conducted by RAND Health for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
This product is part of the RAND Corporation technical report series. RAND technical reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope or intended for a narrow audience; present discussions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research professionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
* RAND research is conducted across divisions, centers, and projects; these organizational components are represented in the "Related RAND Divisions" section above.
Top
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2008 RAND Corporation. 