Beyond the Shadow of 9/11
Ten Years Later, a Moment for Reflection
It is, at this moment, nearly ten years since 9/11. The deadliest attacks in the annals of terrorism and the cause of the greatest bloodshed on American soil since the Civil War, the 9/11 attacks provoked the invasion of Afghanistan, which has become America’s longest war. The attacks also prompted America’s global campaign against terrorists and terrorism — a campaign that soon broadened to include the invasion of Iraq, a fundamental reorganization of the intelligence community, and a continuing national preoccupation with domestic security marked by the creation of a new national apparatus, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, dedicated to the protection of American citizens against terrorist attacks.
The death in May of Osama bin Laden, founder and leader of al Qaeda, who declared war on the United States in 1996 and who was the driving force behind the 9/11 attacks, would seem to bracket, if not the war on terrorism, at least an important chapter in that war. Despite a brief display of national euphoria after the killing of bin Laden, few analysts believe that his death spells the end of al Qaeda or its terrorist campaign. His demise is a semicolon in the ongoing contest, not a period.
Al Qaeda’s future trajectory is not yet discernible. The organization has warned of retaliation and is under pressure to demonstrate to its foes and, more importantly, to its followers that the global terrorist enterprise inspired by bin Laden is still in business. With no other al Qaeda leader possessing his symbolic authority, one way of asserting leadership is to demonstrate prowess as a terrorist commander. Further terrorist attacks must be anticipated. As the tenth anniversary of 9/11 approaches, apprehension will increase. But the threat will persist for many years.
The long shadow of 9/11 sometimes makes it difficult to recall what things were like before terrorists crashed hijacked airliners into New York skyscrapers and the Pentagon.
A Chance to Reflect
Even before bin Laden’s death, the tenth anniversary of America’s response to 9/11 seemed an appropriate time for a thoughtful review of progress and future strategy. The perspective of a decade would reveal broad trends not apparent in shorter time frames. When we, the editors of The Long Shadow of 9/11: America’s Response to Terrorism first discussed the idea of such a review with RAND’s management and staff, we made it clear that we did not want just a tenth-year anniversary anthology, a sampler of related RAND research. We wanted the participants in this project not only to draw upon their accumulated expertise and accrued knowledge but also to go beyond what they had already published and reflect upon broader issues.
AP IMAGES/ALISON REDLICH
People attend the dedication ceremony for the Vermont Global War on Terror Memorial at the Vermont Veterans Memorial Cemetery in Randolph Center, Vermont, on Veterans Day, November 11, 2010. The memorial honors Vermont soldiers and Marines who have died as part of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Did America overreact to 9/11? What did America do right? What did the country get wrong? Have there been lost opportunities or unwise approaches? What lessons have been learned? What might the country now do differently? What can Americans realistically expect from security? Has 9/11 changed how Americans view war? And has 9/11 changed us as Americans?
The contributing authors to this volume did not disappoint. Their essays are agile, yet muscular, recognizing the progress made in some areas but offering criticism where it is needed. Excerpts from four of the 16 essays follow in this issue of RAND Review. The first two excerpts, from Arturo Muñoz and Eric Larson, address foreign policy. The last two excerpts, from Jack Riley and Lloyd Dixon and his colleagues, address homeland security.
The long shadow of 9/11 sometimes makes it difficult to recall what things were like before terrorists crashed hijacked airliners into New York skyscrapers and the Pentagon, killing thousands. The United States had been concerned about the growing phenomenon of terrorism since the late 1960s and had played a major role in international efforts to combat it. Terrorism escalated in the 1980s and 1990s as terrorists increasingly demonstrated their determination to kill in quantity and their willingness to kill indiscriminately. Terrorist attacks on American targets abroad had already provoked a military response on several occasions, but these were single actions.
Prior to 9/11, neither Washington nor the American public was psychologically or politically prepared to launch not simply retaliatory strikes but a continuing military campaign against a terrorist movement — to wage war on terrorism, whatever that meant. Without 9/11, it would have been hard to imagine the subsequent American response. And even given that response, few in 2001 anticipated that the effort would last so long or prove so costly.
An Honest Accounting
The United States has accomplished a great deal in the past ten years. Al Qaeda’s capacity for centrally directed, large-scale terrorist operations has been greatly reduced, if not eliminated entirely. Declaring victory and turning our back, however, would be dangerous.
AP IMAGES/BRENNAN LINSLEY
Behind a fence of razor wire, detainees pray before dawn inside an exercise yard at Guantanamo Bay U.S. Naval Base, Cuba, on May 14, 2009.
The United States cannot prevent every terrorist attack, but it is much better equipped today to handle future terrorist threats. U.S. intelligence has shifted its priorities from nation-states to transnational actors and has reconfigured itself to meet the new threats. The intelligence operation that led to the successful raid on bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, displayed this greatly increased effectiveness. Al Qaeda’s ranks have been decimated, its capabilities degraded, not only as a result of U.S. intelligence, military, and Special Operations but also very much as a consequence of unprecedented international cooperation among the world’s security services and law enforcement organizations.
The authors of The Long Shadow of 9/11 do not flinch at the invasion of Afghanistan, the continuing use of military force to destroy al Qaeda, or current efforts against the Taliban. They do, however, criticize the invasion of Iraq on grounds that it diverted attention from Afghanistan and the pursuit of al Qaeda, that the United States sidelined even willing allies to pursue military missions largely on its own, that military operations in both Afghanistan and Iraq ended up being stretched thin, and that the requirements of both counterinsurgency campaigns were ignored until late in the campaigns. The United States has been forced to learn — and to relearn — a great deal the hard way, especially about counterinsurgency operations.
The authors remain skeptical of current U.S. efforts to build up a large national army and police force in Afghanistan without simultaneously building up local forces, which seem closer to that country’s traditions. There is further dissatisfaction with the continuing failure to deliberately combat al Qaeda’s ideology or to support those who can. From the outset, preventing further terrorist attacks took precedence. America pounded on al Qaeda’s operational capabilities, not its beliefs, which were largely dismissed as fanaticism. But military power alone does not suffice.
America’s struggle against terrorism has been national in name only. Except for the heavy burden borne unequally by those in the military and their families, the conflict remains a distant reality show to the rest of society.
The authors sometimes harp on America’s foibles, but they also harbor great hopes for America’s future. Some authors assert that America overreacted after 9/11, both abroad (in Iraq) and at home (at the airports). Yet the authors also see opportunities for strengthening America that have arisen partly because of 9/11 — from reinforcing our public health system to redesigning our laws to promote community solidarity in times when we most need to rely on each other.
An American Perspective
This volume offers an explicitly American point of view. It was our intent to look critically at America’s experience and performance. This reflects the fact that America has often chosen to go it alone, determined to run its own show, unwilling to be fettered by assistance from others, ignoring advice that did not accord with its own perspectives — showing hubris. It was our mandate as authors and editors to comment upon that American experience.
Nonetheless, we are aware of the enormous cooperation and collaboration that have taken place with international allies, not only in the areas of intelligence and law enforcement, as pointed out, but also on the battlefield. As the continuing terrorist threat inspired by al Qaeda’s ideology becomes more diffuse, this collaboration will become even more critical.
AP IMAGES/ALISON REDLICH
A member of the Vermont National Guard Funeral Honors Team performs the flag presentation during the dedication ceremony for the Vermont Global War on Terror Memorial on Veterans Day, November 11, 2010.
A Better Criterion
Americans frequently ask, Are we safer now? The question betrays the perspective of a victim. The answer is probably yes, but surely that cannot be the sole criterion of progress. Instead, we might ask, Is America stronger now? Can the country defend itself against current and would-be foes? Can the country sustain the perpetual state of preparedness in which, it seems, we must live? Is America capable of achieving its objectives?
Assessment here is more difficult, beyond the reach of research, but the answer seems mixed. America is probably organizationally and militarily better prepared now. It has gained a better understanding of this new kind of adversary. Having survived 9/11, Americans may be better prepared psychologically to deal with another terrorist attack. But national strength derives from more than the accumulation of warriors, weapons, and endurance. It encompasses public spirit. A civic spirit. A sense that everyone is in it together.
America’s struggle against terrorism has been national in name only. Except for the heavy burden borne unequally by those in the military and their families, the conflict remains a distant reality show to the rest of society. Conspicuous displays of patriotism disguise the absence of national sacrifice. The national treasury has been emptied, but private profit is preferred over public interest, while growing political partisanship erodes any sense of national unity. The political class has not served the country well. Or perhaps its constituents have demanded too little of it. In a genuine democracy, after all, the people are responsible for the nation’s actions.
At the same time, Americans will defend their liberties. They are ferocious when angered and keen to rise up when thrown on the defensive. And despite the instances of prisoner abuse and torture that have sullied America’s honor since 9/11, the American people, on the whole, remain determined to behave virtuously: No cities were leveled after 9/11. Citizens sought to participate in the effort to secure the homeland (but were told to stand aside — and to keep shopping). Most Americans have remained tolerant of the Muslim community, although that sentiment is under assault. Americans are deeply concerned about the country’s condition, which they do see as their responsibility to remedy. They are irked by those who blame America for the world’s problems and then blame America when it tries to solve them, but in general, Americans continue to believe that their country has an important role to play in the world, and they are eager to play it.
While fighting al Qaeda since 9/11, America has waged a political war with itself.
While fighting al Qaeda since 9/11, America has waged a political war with itself. This is nothing new in American life. It may be intrinsic to the nature of our contentious federal republic. But the shadow of 9/11 across America has exacerbated the internal conflicts. Fear may lie at the heart of much of America’s response, just as the terrorists intended. But the terrorist attacks have not destroyed America. If anything, they have magnified the extremes within America, from the isolationist impulse to go it alone to the internationalist impulse to remain a beacon of freedom for the world, from the reluctance to engage to the desire to sort things out. In what could be the final legacy of 9/11 and also the most self-defeating consequence of al Qaeda’s campaign to extinguish America, the terrorist attacks have compelled America to become an exaggerated version of itself, with its own internal contradictions heightened and intensified. It remains in the hands of the American people to write the next chapter of their history. That is as it should be. 
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