RAND Review
Delta Dawning
Gulf Coast Efforts Look Beyond Recovery Toward Lasting Renewal
Flood Zone Management
History shows that building “bigger and better” flood protection systems in the aftermath of disastrous storms is not always the best policy. Instead, the best way to reduce future losses of life and property is sometimes to surrender land to the water. By forgoing development of floodplains or allowing wetlands to reclaim land, policymakers can protect the public, safeguard the economy, and manage natural resources.
History shows that building “bigger and better” flood protection systems in the aftermath of disastrous storms is not always the best policy. |
“The critical concept that flood damage control includes conceding land to the water from time to time is a psychologically difficult one,” acknowledged James Kahan, a RAND social psychologist whose team of researchers chronicled the lessons learned from four major floods around the world during the latter part of the 20th century. “There is an inherent bias toward recreating what used to be. But there are times when an excess of cure can be worse than the disease.”
For at least five decades, the Gulf Coast wetlands that form a natural hurricane protection system around the Mississippi delta have been eroded by the expansion of levees, the dredging of canals and shipping channels, and the ongoing pumping of oil and gas. All these activities have caused the naturally restorative sediment of the Mississippi River to flow out to the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico rather than to replenish the wetlands.
To glean lessons that might apply to the Gulf Coast recovery effort, Kahan and his team focused on the process of recovery from the four historical floods. They are Vanport, Oregon, where the Columbia River crashed through a protective dike on Memorial Day of 1948; the Dutch province of Zeeland, where high tides and a huge storm overwhelmed the sea defenses in January of 1953; the upper Mississippi River region, where extensive river flooding submerged the surrounding communities in the summer of 1993; and the Yangtze River in China, where a similar inundation occurred five years later (see the table).
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The historical cases illustrate an evolution in thinking that has taken place over the past 60 years, said Kahan. “All illustrate the evolution from flood control to a broader notion of integrated water resource management.” The shift goes from a near-exclusive focus on structural means of controlling floods (such as building dams and levees) to the inclusion of nonstructural means (such as zoning laws and other regulations) in order to stretch water resources as far as possible, to allocate them equitably across different social and economic groups, and to protect the water resources and their associated ecosystems.
In Oregon, the part of Portland that was once Vanport has since become a park and a major recreational center for the city. The remarkable aspect of Vanport is that it was never rebuilt. This owes less to enlightened water management policy than to widespread ambivalence about this federally built city that was created to house out-of-state residents — many of whom were black — who had come to build Liberty ships during World War II. Nonetheless, Vanport proved that if the social, political, and cultural circumstances permit, recovery need not be an attempt to restore the status quo but can instead serve broader societal purposes.
AP PHOTO/ROBERT F. BUKATYViewed from the air, a section of the Chandeleur Islands ravaged by Hurricane Katrina appears sculpted by wind and water off Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, on October 25, 2005. The hurricane vastly reshaped the storm-absorbing barrier islands in the Gulf of Mexico. |
In the Netherlands, the 1953 storm triggered a rethinking of water management that continues to this day. The centuries-old Dutch tradition of building ever-higher dikes gave way to a combination of dikes, dams, and storm surge barriers that remain open except during major storms. In this way, the restoration preserved the economic value of fisheries and mussel beds as well as the maritime ecology. Today, the region preserves its agriculture and draws tourists, not least because of these striking technological innovations.
In a stunning revolution for the Dutch, leading policymakers are currently proposing that some land once wrested from the sea be returned. Historically pioneers in claiming land from the sea, the Dutch are now again at the frontier of water management in their willingness to give land back to the sea in exchange for enhanced safety, economic value, and environmental preservation.
The 1993 flood along the upper Mississippi River exposed the limits of levees that had been constructed by local and federal governments throughout the preceding 150 years. In response, the federal government asked for advice from the Interagency Floodplain Management Review Committee. It called for major changes in U.S. floodplain policy, particularly less development in floodplains and more individual liability for those living there. However, development in Midwestern floodplains has continued to grow since 1993. Alternatives such as property buyouts, wetlands restoration, and insurance reforms have not been employed as extensively as recommended. “Apparently,” a 2004 editorial in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch groaned, “we have learned nothing from the flood.”
In contrast, after the Yangtze flood and mudslides of 1998, the Chinese government explicitly stated that what is important is not to control but to manage water resources. In addition to reinforcing levees, dredging riverbeds, and completing the massive Three Gorges Dam, Chinese water management policy now also emphasizes creating mountain forest preserves, returning agricultural lands to forests and lakes, and demolishing dikes to create floodplain water catchment areas.
KENNETH WELLSBen Springgate, a physician whose work has led him to UCLA and RAND and back home again, embraces the prevailing sentiment outside the Common Ground Health Clinic, a volunteer-run free clinic that emerged in one of the poorest neighborhoods of New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. |
“From a water management point of view, the Yangtze River provides close to an ideal case,” said Kahan. “A multilevel integrated water management system has been put into place that reflects learning from previous experience. Of course, all this has occurred within a culture that accepts top-down direction and control to an extent that is unacceptable in most Western cultures, much less the American one.”
He hopes, though, that Gulf Coast leaders can see the promise that lies in the historical lessons. “Out of tragedy can come opportunity,” he affirmed. “Disruption of the status quo can create political conditions for broader-based social and economic change that might otherwise have been delayed or might not have happened at all.”
Community Health
Numerous RAND projects are trying to help local, state, and federal leaders make the Gulf Coast better, stronger, and healthier than it was before. RAND is helping the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers develop a long-term plan to protect Louisiana from hurricanes and to restore its coastal habitats and ecosystems. Another RAND project is culling the lessons that can be derived from the responses to 13 natural disasters in 11 countries. A pending RAND “roadmap” for the Gulf South is charting how various regional factors can help or hinder future recovery efforts.
Meanwhile, RAND health researchers in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Houston, and San Antonio continue their efforts to understand the physical and mental health consequences and needs of hurricane evacuees and returnees. Among them is physician Ben Springgate.
“Overall,” he reported from New Orleans, “most evacuees have not returned to their original neighborhoods or communities. Many who have returned are experiencing significant symptoms of mental distress. The prevalence of symptoms of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder has about doubled.” Most of his patients tell him they’re not sleeping at night, they’re crying unexpectedly all the time, or they’re drinking more. “The day-to-day stress is palpable,” he said.
In interviewing Katrina survivors, he has found that they have less access to health care and medications now than before the hurricane. But the community has responded by creating new models of care, such as mobile medical units and church-based health services. Many local organizations are now working side by side to serve the returning population.
“These clinical partnerships would not have existed prior to the storm,” said Springgate. “The good news is that the community is drawing on novel resources and pursuing innovative adaptations to fill the gaps in care.”
“There’s an extraordinary commitment among people who have returned to try to build something new. There’s unprecedented collaboration and selflessness.” |
He has organized a partnership between local community groups and national academic institutions, including RAND, UCLA, and Tulane. Consequently, community members are beginning to use research to assess their health care challenges and to resolve them.
People have also found great support from religion, spirituality, and one another, he emphasized. “There’s an extraordinary commitment among people who have returned to try to build something new. There’s unprecedented collaboration and selflessness among local agencies trying to fill the gaps and develop services for the people who were affected. Despite the day-to-day frustrations and lows, there is hope and tremendous civic pride. People really want to see the community bounce back and succeed.”
He finds inspiration from those in his midst. “A lot of people could leave or never come back. It’d be understandable if they did. But I honestly believe we have the ability to take advantage of this break in the momentum and become a community that has a better education system, is protected from natural threats, has a robust economy, and is still loved as much as ever for offering such unique music, architecture, culture, and cuisine.”
He foresees the work ahead as a “ten-year process,” specifically with respect to building enough affordable housing for low-income workers. “We are in solidarity with the displaced people who still hope to return to New Orleans,” he declared. “We are trying to make it possible for them to return to the home that they would want to return to: one that is better than before. We’re not giving up. We’re here for the long haul.” 
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