In the most comprehensive examination of the nation's experience with these efforts to date, a RAND team has evaluated the evidence on vouchers and charters in terms of their effects on five major policy goals: academic achievement, choice, access, integration, and civic socialization.

In terms of academic achievement, voucher programs targeted to low-income students have shown benefits for African American children, but clear benefits have not been found for other children. Charter school achievement outcomes range from slight advantages to slight disadvantages when compared to conventional public schools.

It is unknown whether or how vouchers and charter schools will affect academic achievement among the large majority of students who remain in conventional public schools.

Parental satisfaction is generally high regarding the choices offered by vouchers and charter schools. The major unknown outcome is whether such programs can be scaled up to produce a range of desirable choices for large numbers of families.

With regard to access, some programs that were explicitly designed with income qualifications have succeeded in placing low-income, low-achieving, and minority students in voucher schools. Other programs that subsidize private-school tuition via income-tax benefits usually serve a disproportionate number of middle- and upper-income students.

In highly segregated communities, targeted voucher programs may modestly increase racial integration. However, evidence from other nations suggests that large-scale unregulated choice programs generally lead to greater stratification.

Next to nothing is known about whether voucher and charter programs help students to become responsible, tolerant, democratically active citizens.

The authors suggest that the policies to refine school choice programs depend on the goals.

If the goal is to promote academic achievement, then testing could be required of all students.

If the goal is to benefit those who remain in conventional public schools, then those schools should also be given the autonomy to perform in a competitive environment.

If the goal is to serve low-income and special-needs students, then the programs should be funded through direct grants rather than income-tax subsidies.

For more information: Rhetoric Versus Reality (RAND/MR-1118-EDU).
 

Navy Slows Down Plans for All-Electric Ships

UNITED DEFENSE, L.P. Conceptual rendering of a potentially all-electric destroyer.

Potential benefits of electric-drive ships include improved fuel efficiency, greater flexibility of design, reduced internal volume, and reduced susceptibility to enemy radar. The British Royal Navy is already committed to an electric-drive ship for its next-generation destroyer.

Researchers will compile data on the average speeds and monthly fuel consumption of U.S. Navy destroyers to estimate their total energy requirements. Researchers will also analyze the most critical ship components needed for electric propulsion.

Some of the technologies under consideration include high- temperature superconducting electric motors, advanced gas turbine engines, fuel cell auxiliary power supplies, and podded propulsor technologies.
 

Urgent Relief for Emergency Workers

The meeting, held in New York City, reviewed the responses to the 1995 attack at the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, the Sept. 11 attacks at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and the ensuing anthrax incidents.

Firefighters noted that they are equipped to fight structural fires but are poorly prepared to respond to large-scale terrorist incidents that involve multiple hazards, such as explosive devices, falling debris, rubble, and chemical and biological agents.

Many participants noted that emergency medical services, law enforcement, and construction workers now toil at the front line of terrorist incidents—yet have inadequate protective equipment or training.

Commonly, back-up supplies are sent to disaster sites where local personnel lack sufficient training either to use the equipment or to integrate it with existing equipment and training.

One policy recommendation was for the government to promote the standardization of personal protective equipment, such as respirators.

For more information: Protecting Emergency Responders (RAND/CF-176-OSTP).
 

Gas and Oil Assessments "Miss the Point"

The RAND study explains that traditional resource assessments quantify the "technically recoverable resource," or the amount of a resource that is recoverable given certain assumptions about technical capabilities. The key argument of the RAND study is that the "technically recoverable resource" does not account for other barriers to development and therefore provides an overly optimistic estimate of the amount of a resource that can be viably produced.

The RAND team defines a "viable" resource as that which can be economically extracted at the source, can be economically delivered to market via transportation infrastructures, and is environmentally acceptable to stakeholders and policymakers.

As it turns out, legal access restrictions may not be the pivotal factor in deterring oil and gas development in the Rocky Mountains. In fact, the economic factors alone could greatly reduce the amount of the resources that could likely be developed throughout the region.

For more information: A New Approach to Assessing Gas and Oil Resources in the Intermountain West (RAND/IP-225-WFHF).
 

Dutch Students Know How to Take a Free Ride

But the students were cleverer than that. They began taking more weekend and day trips to cities and towns that they had not previously visited. A study by RAND Europe also found that the use of urban public transportation by students doubled, while their use of bicycles (the traditional means of mobility among Dutch students) declined by 22 percent. In effect, many students set aside their bicycles in favor of urban transit.

In 1994, a second generation of student passes discriminated between commuters and those who lived away from home. Commuters received free passes that were valid only on weekdays. Students living away from home received free passes that were valid only from Friday evening through Sunday.

A subsequent study by RAND Europe found that the new policy caused a slight shift back to bicycles, as expected, but also a shift to cars. The reduction in train use occurred mainly on weekends.
 

Fallout of Terrorism: Closer U.S. Ties to Pakistan, India, and China?

Virtually everyone agrees that U.S. relations with Pakistan have undergone a remarkable change for the better since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, but fewer observers have noted the potential for improved U.S. relations with the other two major South Asian powers, India and China.

Venu Rajamony, a political counselor at the Embassy of India in Beijing, visited RAND and argued that the United States and India both have security interests in addressing the problems of fundamentalist militants in Pakistan. He claimed that the United States and India, working in coordination, could lead Pakistan away from militancy and terror.

He also asserted that India is not likely to set strict preconditions on negotiations with Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir.

Rajamony pointed to three events that have altered the U.S.-Indian relationship. First, relations have steadily improved since the March 2000 visit of President Clinton to India. Second, the war on terrorism has shown India that the United States can play a positive role in the region. Third, the December 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament made the government realize it must take more action against terrorism.

The U.S.-China relationship has also changed noticeably since a year ago, when a hobbled U.S. reconnaissance plane was forced to land on Hainan Island, said James Mulvenon, deputy director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy. In a RAND seminar, he said that what China has not done in response to the war against terrorism is as significant as what it has done.

For example, China did not object to a United Nations Security Council resolution (as it had before Operation Desert Storm). Also, China has not vehemently opposed the use of U.S. military force in its "neighborhood." Finally, China did not object to the transformation of the fall Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shanghai into a forum on terrorism.
 

Researchers Seek to Fill a Prescription for the Future

As legislators debate proposals for prescription drug benefits for elderly Americans, a radical change is brewing in the nature of prescriptions themselves. The familiar prescription pad is being challenged by electronic prescribing systems that use handheld devices, the Internet, and wireless technology.

Medication errors often arise from hand-written prescriptions. Frequently, the underlying problem is the handwriting.

Early on, researchers at RAND recognized the need to assess this rapidly evolving new technology for prescribing. The team is currently reviewing various electronic prescribing products and is developing standards for evaluating such systems.

The technology would replace handwritten prescriptions with electronic prescriptions that can be directly transmitted to pharmacies and printed legibly for patients. More sophisticated systems alert doctors to drug interactions or allergies or even recommend drugs tailored to a patient.

The Institute of Medicine reports that errors involving prescription medications kill up to 7,000 Americans a year. Electronic prescribing could reduce such errors, improving the quality and effectiveness of care. Such systems can also be designed to reduce costs by promoting generic or less expensive drugs.

Depending on their design and implementation, electronic prescribing systems may vary widely in their effects on health care quality and efficiency. The Internet and handheld computers have also given rise to concerns about security.

"Today, health care providers have little information on which to select among competing systems," said Shan Cretin, a principal investigator for the RAND team. "Independent standards will allow health care organizations to weigh the impact of systems on patient outcomes, practice efficiency, and costs of care. [The standards] can also guide the development of more effective electronic prescribing systems."

The research is expected to be completed in the fall of 2003.
 

DIANE BALDWIN Turkish Ambassador O. Faruk Logoglu said Turkey and the United States need each other to promote democracy and secularism.

Turkish Ambassador Cites Common Goals

He proposed that Turkey, with its constitutional democracy and secular government, could serve as a role model for other countries in the Islamic world.

"I'm not saying everyone should emulate Turkey. Each country must decide for itself," but Turkey can "make its experience relevant" to those Islamic countries with democratic aspirations.

Turkey is very concerned about the possibility of U.S. military engagement in Iraq, said Logoglu. "Saddam (Hussein) is a bad guy who must go, but our concern is the integrity of Iraq, not what happens to Saddam."

Logoglu warned that an attack on Iraq would cause convulsions inside Iraq, throughout the Arab world, and in the Mideast peace process. "It would change everything."
 

Obesity Costs More Than Smoking, Drinking

Obesity is associated with a 36 percent increase in inpatient and outpatient costs and a 77 percent increase in medication costs over those incurred by people within a normal weight range.

Current smokers see cost increases of 21 percent for medical services and 28 percent for medications over those of nonsmokers. Problem drinkers see smaller cost increases than do smokers. Meanwhile, aging from 30 to 50 is associated with a 20 percent hike in costs for medical services and a 105 percent leap in costs for medications.

The author, Roland Sturm, noted that important outcomes other than costs fell outside the scope of his analysis. Smoking may still account for more premature deaths than obesity. And alcohol abuse is likely to account for more adverse events, such as drunk driving accidents.

Still, the study adds to growing concerns about how obesity in America may dramatically increase health care costs. One in five Americans is obese, while an additional one in three is overweight. That means that the majority of Americans are either obese or overweight.

Obesity has increased by 60 percent between 1991 and 2000, while smoking rates have been cut roughly in half since 1964.
 

Research Pays Off for Injured Workers

The most recent report confirmed that the state benefits replaced less than half of the wages lost over a 10-year period, well below the standard of two-thirds replacement, which is generally accepted as adequate.

One week after the report was publicly released on Feb. 8, California Gov. Gray Davis signed a bill to significantly increase workers' compensation benefits in the state.

The situation for disabled workers in California improved somewhat between 1991 and 1997, mostly because of a separate 1993 increase in benefits and the fact that employers rehired many disabled workers under "return to work" policies, according to the report authored by Robert Reville, Robert Schoeni, and Craig Martin.

For more information: Trends in Earnings Loss from Disabling Workplace Injuries in California (RAND/MR-1457-ICJ).