GAME THEORY AND GAMING (1948-present) RAND publishes Handbook on the Theory of Games in 1949 and quickly becomes a leader in game theory--how opponents use limited information about one another to determine the best strategy. From the 1950s onward, RAND uses human gaming to gain insights about military action-reaction cycles and about crisis behavior of leaders. Beginning in 1982, the "automated war gaming" of the RAND Strategy Assessment Center permits human players and computer models to substitute for each other in representing theater commanders and heads of state. In the 1990s, RAND develops drug policy games for urban officials; "peace games" to reduce gang violence; "The Day After" games, which allow leaders from the U.S. government, Europe, and the former Soviet Union to look back from hypothetical crises involving weapons of mass destruction and consider what could have been done to avert such confrontations; and "The Day After--in Cyberspace" games, in which U.S. government, military, and private industry officials counter information warfare attacks hypothesized to occur in the year 2000.
EARLY SYSTEMS ANALYSIS (1949-1954) A RAND hallmark, "systems analysis" quantifies the expected costs, benefits, and risks of alternative courses of action. Broad in scope, systems analysis combines the knowledge of experts in many fields to reach solutions that transcend any individual expert's judgment. In military systems analysis, for example, the cost of producing one weapon must include all related costs incurred by the rest of the force as well as life-cycle costs of operating and maintaining the weapon. The first major application of systems analysis is the 1949 report Strategic Bombing Systems Analysis, which advocates using decoys to mask bombers from the enemy. A 1954 report, Selection and Use of Strategic Air Bases, shakes the foundation of nuclear deterrence policy by shifting the United States from a first-strike to a second-strike posture. The report advises the Air Force to relocate its bomber forces away from bases near the Soviet Union and toward home, where U.S. bombers could survive a first-strike attack and then carry out a retaliatory second strike. This radical shift entails abandoning overseas bases and relying instead on long-range bombers and aerial refueling, another RAND innovation--and saves the Air Force more than a billion dollars in construction costs. In the 1960s, systems analysis will evolve into social policy analysis (see 1960s).
EARLY COMPUTING AND PROGRAMMING (1949-1962) From 1949 to 1954, RAND builds the JOHNNIAC digital computer, one of the first "modern" U.S. computers, at a time when commerce still depends on keypunch machines for data processing. The computer is named for its designer, John von Neumann, a RAND consultant. The new computer technology, combined with the demands of analytic studies, prompts RAND to create new mathematical algorithms and their software programs: dynamic programming (1953), an approach to solving sequential decision problems, and its software; Information Processing Language (1957), which simulates human thinking and becomes the foundation for artificial intelligence; linear programming (1959) and its Simplex computation method; and SIMSCRIPT (1962), a language for simulation and modeling. Along with the stochastic programming, integer programming, and digital Monte Carlo methods also developed by RAND during the 1950s, these new tools compose the heart of operations research. Demand for random numbers to support modeling produces the 1955 book A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates, whose tables become a standard reference for engineers, statisticians, physicists, pollsters, market analysts, and lottery officials. In the 1960s, these computing advances will lead to the information revolution (see 1960s).
SOVIET STUDIES (1950-present) RAND pioneers the field of Soviet Studies, beginning in 1950 with The Operational Code of the Politburo, which probes the political strategy of Bolshevism and aids the United Nations' armistice-negotiating team in Korea. Subsequent studies analyze Soviet nuclear research (1959), Soviet cybernetics (computing) technology (1964), Soviet aviation (1970), the Soviet calculus of risks and uncertainties in using nuclear forces (1970s), the Soviet economic burden of maintaining its empire (1983), and alternative U.S. policies toward a changing Soviet Union (1986). Over the decades, RAND stimulates leading economists at Harvard University to carry on the work of Soviet Studies. In the late 1990s, RAND spearheads research on Russia's demographic "crisis," U.S. and Russian policies for the use of force, and the implications of migration within the former Soviet Union. RAND also supports the Russian-American Business Leaders Forum, a program to promote cooperation among top American and Russian corporate executives.
NATO (1953-present) In the 1950s, prompted by the growing Soviet atomic capability, RAND studies U.S. Air Force vulnerability in an atomic war and examines alternative approaches to defending Europe. Resulting work on NATO force planning in 1964-1966 leads to a major change in NATO strategy away from automatic, massive nuclear retaliation and toward a more flexible response that relies on strong conventional forces in Central Europe. A 1971 report suggests reallocating NATO's tactical air resources toward nonnuclear attacks of enemy air bases, and a 1973 study of vulnerable U.S. Army equipment in Central Europe prompts the secretary of defense to increase army stocks there. In 1983, RAND refutes the contention that Soviet ballistic missiles would make NATO tactical air forces indefensible and ineffective. A 1987 study of conventional arms control determines that large and highly asymmetric reductions in Warsaw Pact forces are necessary to overcome an imbalance of forces in Central Europe. Research beginning in 1991 on possible NATO expansion plays a major role in the 1997 decision by NATO leaders to invite Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary to join the Alliance. In 1997 and 1998, RAND analyzes the issues and costs of NATO expansion and helps Hungary, Poland, and Romania assess future defense policies in light of expected expansion.
 RAND ARCHIVES |
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| In the early 1950s, RAND sets up a Systems Research Laboratory (left) to train the "systems" of men and machines at Air Defense Centers to prevent enemy aircraft from getting through. Simulated crises, "failures," and debriefings place more and more stress on the system, which gradually "learns" how to handle situations far more demanding than those that actually could occur. Eventually, the entire Air Defense System implements the RAND training program, and its tremendous growth leads to the creation in 1957 of a separate corporation, the Systems Development Corporation, with its laboratory shown here in the early 1960s (right). | |
THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION (1960-present) Building on its JOHNNIAC computer, RAND begins work in 1960 on the JOHNNIAC Open Shop System (JOSS), the first online, interactive computer system, which provides the U.S. Air Force with a national network when other "networks" are still limited to a single building or geographical area. In 1961, researchers create the RAND Tablet, the first two-dimensional writing surface that allows humans to communicate instantly with computers through characters printed on the tablet. In the mid-1960s, in response to an Air Force demand for communications able to survive a nuclear attack, RAND researchers invent "distributed communications"--now called packet switching--which evolves into one of the major technological innovations of our time: the Internet. Over the next 20 years, RAND leads national efforts to ensure computer security for the military--and computer privacy for civilians--with safeguards against eavesdropping, wiretapping, copying, or outright theft of files. A 1985 report, Toward an Ethics and Etiquette for Electronic Mail, proposes guidelines for social behavior appropriate for electronic mail. Universal Access to E-Mail: Feasibility and Societal Implications, a 1995 report, warns of an impending age of information "haves" and "have-nots," recommends a U.S. policy of universal e-mail access, and addresses the technical and economic aspects of implementing such a policy.
MILITARY MANPOWER (1967-present) RAND studies position it as the world leader in devising military personnel policies. In 1967, RAND statistical models predict the number and skill mix of aircraft mechanics required for unscheduled maintenance. Studies of Air Reserve Forces in the late 1960s give rise to a "total force" concept that considers active and reserve forces as complements, not competitors. In 1970, RAND recommends moving to an all-volunteer force: Any short-term loss in recruit quality would be offset by the increasing size of the recruit-aged population, a smaller military force after Vietnam, and possible increases in military pay. In the 1970s and 1980s, RAND's studies of potential doctor shortages in the military lead to expanded roles for physicians' assistants, enhanced medical-school scholarships, and a division of labor allowing surgeons to concentrate on the most difficult steps in surgery. Several RAND experiments from the late 1970s onward lead to new compensation policies--still used today--that help the military recruit and retain quality personnel. The experiments show that educational benefits need to be targeted to expand the pool of high-quality recruits and that bonuses are powerful tools for recruiting and retaining personnel without increasing retirement outlays. A 1989 report shows that Army recruitment advertising produces immediate and significant increases in the number of high-quality enlistments. A 1998 report outlines how the military could save money, raise productivity, and better manage careers--including any future drawdowns--by raising pay and converting to an alternative retirement system modeled after the Federal Employees Retirement System.
SOCIAL POLICY ANALYSIS (1968-present) From its foundation of systems analysis, RAND develops policy analysis, which often balances quantitative and qualitative factors and serves policymaking in many social policy areas. From 1968 to 1975, the New York City-RAND Institute offers solutions to nursing shortages, helps improve rent control, shows how to relocate fire companies during fires and how to reallocate police personnel, and helps enhance water quality in Jamaica Bay. The 1986 report Closing the Gap: Forty Years of Economic Progress for Blacks finds that the wages of African American men in the United States increased 52 percent faster than those of white men between 1940 and 1980 and that the major causes were economic growth in society overall and vast improvements in the quantity and quality of education of African Americans. The study recommends that antipoverty efforts emphasize education and overall economic growth. Soon after the Los Angeles riots of 1992, a RAND report examining urban problems facing the city and nation suggests that, in the absence of federal attention to the inner city, local leaders must be willing to implement policies that may benefit only part of the target population.
HEALTH INSURANCE (1971-present) In 1971, RAND embarks on the 15-year Health Insurance Experiment, which places 2,700 families in health insurance plans ranging from free care to 95 percent payment, with some families enrolled in health maintenance organizations (HMOs). Families with free plans use up to 50 percent more health services than those in cost-sharing plans or HMOs, but the effect on the average person's health is negligible; among adults, free care leads to better health only for those with poor vision or for low-income people with high blood pressure. A 1974 report concludes that national health insurance would provide more health services to more people and should improve quality of life--but would not appreciably extend life expectancy. A 1978 report estimates the effect of different deductibles on demand for care, and in 1988 RAND finds that demand for outpatient care declines for those paying higher rates, whereas demand for inpatient care holds steady. Corporations and unions use many of these conclusions to claim that cutting back medical fringe benefits would not undermine health. In 1996, RAND analyzes proposed medical savings accounts (MSAs), designed to reduce health care costs by allowing individuals with only a "catastrophic" insurance policy to set up a tax-exempt account to pay routine medical bills. The study finds that MSA legislation would not necessarily reduce health care costs, because many Americans with employer-provided insurance would not switch to MSAs. Research in the late 1990s examines the effect of the 1996 Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, which allows those formerly covered by group health insurance policies to purchase individual policies free of exclusions for preexisting conditions. RAND finds that the new legislation will not raise individual premiums nearly as much as estimated by the Health Insurance Association of America.
HOUSING ASSISTANCE (1972-1982) RAND's Housing Assistance Supply Experiment shows that cash housing allowances benefit the most needy families more--and cost less--than constructing housing projects. The experiment, conducted among 25,000 households in the two very different cities of Green Bay, Wis., and South Bend, Ind., also determines that cash allowances do not inflate the cost of housing; rather, they result in improved housing quality for recipients and put pressure on the overall market to raise housing quality. Perhaps the largest single social experiment ever conducted, the research contributes to changes in the U.S. housing code that make cash subsidies available to some low-income groups.
TERRORISM (1972-present) RAND pioneers research on terrorism with studies of the motivation, organization, and tactics of terrorists; U.S. policy, strategy, and tactics for dealing with terrorists and state sponsors of terrorism; U.S. capabilities to rescue U.S. nationals abroad; the potential of computers to help manage crises; and the potential for terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction. RAND's database of terrorist incidents becomes the foundation for the government's database and annual reports on terrorism, and RAND research on threats to U.S. nuclear programs helps the Department of Energy establish security criteria. A 1981 report concludes that, because the primary concern is international terrorism, the United States must seek international cooperation in identifying, isolating, and modifying the behavior of states that support or tolerate terrorists. RAND leads in the creation of an international network of scholars and government officials responsible for dealing with terrorism; later, RAND helps develop a cooperative effort between the United States and the Soviet Union. Studies in the late 1990s conclude that U.S. armed forces must look beyond state-sponsored terrorism and be able to deter and respond to networks of individuals as well.
EDUCATIONAL REFORM (1975-present) In 1975, RAND evaluates federal educational programs of the 1960s and finds that success depends not on technology or funding but on local adaptation and implementation. The study launches decades of research to monitor school reforms, focusing in the 1990s on new math and science tests, "whole-school designs," and privately operated public schools. The latter study identifies the chief obstacle to school reform as top-down, rule-driven school systems and recommends charter schools as a way to reinvent public education. In the late 1970s, RAND studies school finance reforms--adopted by 25 states in an attempt to overcome funding disparities related to property taxes--and finds that states made negligible progress because many reforms were based on inaccurate assumptions and pursued conflicting objectives. Turning to higher education, a sobering 1997 study warns that the nation's colleges and universities face a catastrophic shortfall in funding as a result of continuing enrollment increases, rising costs, and stagnant public funding. The study calls for increased public investment in higher education coupled with comprehensive institutional reform to control costs and improve productivity. A similar 1998 report focusing on California sounds a clarion call: A "tidal wave" of 700,000 additional students will hit the state's higher education shores by 2015, and many students will be denied enrollment unless trends can be reversed. The report urges greater public support for higher education in California along with institutional reform to reallocate resources and streamline operations.
DUTCH INFRASTRUCTURE (1975-present) A five-year joint effort between RAND and the Dutch government in the late 1970s leads to the creation of the world's largest permeable dam--a storm-surge barrier with large movable gates--which balances the environmental, economic, and safety concerns of the Netherlands. When lowered, the gates protect the Netherlands' last and largest estuary; when raised, they protect people, homes, livestock, and the entire shoreline. Research in the early 1980s helps refine Dutch water policy by measuring the effects that prices, regulations, and new storage facilities have on agriculture, hydrology, irrigation, shipping, industry, drinking water companies, power plants, salt intrusion, groundwater supplies, and the environment. A 1993 RAND analysis points to affordable policies that would protect against floods while preserving, as much as possible, the landscape and natural and cultural values along the rivers. Also in 1993, after an El Al freight aircraft crashes into an apartment complex near Amsterdam, RAND analyzes the risks of expanding Schiphol airport and recommends safety management changes, safety incident tracking, and better public communication. A 1996 report--Freight Options for Road, Water, and Rail for the Dutch (FORWARD)--examines ways to mitigate the negative effects of increased road freight traffic while retaining the economic benefits. The study identifies the most promising strategy as improving road freight efficiency--not shifting to other modes of transportation. In the late 1990s, similar studies of air and ground transportation help the Netherlands plan for expected growth.
A storm surge crashes against the movable gates developed for the Netherlands by the Dutch government with RAND's analytical assistance. When raised, the gates protect against flooding; when lowered, they protect the Oosterschelde estuary.
Beginning in the late 1970s, research with Malaysian villagers examines the interrelations between family patterns and economic development.
THE PRICE OF JUSTICE (1981-present) Numerous RAND studies evaluate the civil justice system. A 1981 report on California's court-ordered arbitration program, established in 1979, leads to improvements that reduce court backlogs and costs without hurting either side. In the early 1980s, RAND gauges the mostly upward trends in malpractice claims, workers' compensation benefits, asbestos litigation costs, and civil jury awards. A 1987 study on punitive damages discovers that judges generally reduce jury awards by about half. A 1988 study of air crash litigation informs aircraft manufacturers that fully compensating survivors for monetary loss would be even more expensive than fighting their lawsuits. A 1991 report shows that no-fault auto insurance, as compared with traditional auto insurance, reduces transaction costs, matches compensation more closely with monetary loss, reduces the amounts paid for pain and suffering for less-serious injuries, and speeds up compensation. In 1996, RAND evaluates the impact of the Civil Justice Reform Act (CJRA) of 1990, finding that CJRA itself had little effect on reducing costs and delays, but that judges can make a difference: Early judicial management of cases, early setting of trial dates, and earlier cutoff dates for discovery can reduce delays considerably with no change in litigation costs, participant satisfaction, or perceived fairness.
DRUG PREVENTION AND TREATMENT (1983-present) Beginning in 1983, RAND develops and tests a drug prevention program called Project ALERT, which discourages tobacco and marijuana use among seventh and eighth graders by training them to resist peer pressure. Based on the success of this program, South Dakota schools implement ALERT Plus in 1997. A 1990 study of the economics of drug dealing in Washington, D.C., determines that preventing drug abuse depends primarily on reducing the street market demand that entices young men into the drug trade. A 1997 report estimating the cost-effectiveness of four cocaine-control programs--three supply-reduction programs of law enforcement and one demand-reduction program of treatment--finds that an additional dollar spent on treatment would be far more effective in reducing consumption than an additional dollar spent on enforcement, given current budget allocations.
IMMIGRATION (1985-present) A 1985 RAND report on the effects of Mexican immigration on California concludes that Mexican immigrants contribute more to public revenues than they consume in public services and that these immigrants follow the classic pattern of integration into U.S. society, with education playing a critical role. Twelve years later, a series of RAND reports concludes that the costs to California of immigration from all countries--in terms of education, jobs, and government spending--are beginning to outweigh the benefits. The reports call for reducing illegal and legal immigration, emphasizing educational level and work skills in admissions decisions, and allocating federal payments to defray the heavy education and social costs borne by California.
AIDS COSTS AND CARE (1987-present) RAND funds its own research on AIDS in the mid-1980s before conducting government-sponsored studies from 1987 onward on the costs and complications of treating AIDS patients. The HIV Cost and Services Utilization Study, to be completed in 1999, will provide the first nationally representative data on the cost of treating people with HIV in the United States and will examine access to care, quality of care, quality of life for people with HIV and AIDS, unmet needs, social support, and a range of clinical issues. Another current RAND project examines and seeks to improve treatment for those with HIV who are also seriously mentally ill.
RAND researcher Stephen Carroll leads a 1980 discussion about potential topics of civil justice research.
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| In the late 1990s, RAND plays a pivotal role in mapping the moons of Jupiter. Recent images sent back from the Galileo spacecraft show huge cracks on the frozen, ice-encrusted surface of Europa (right) and plumes of smoke trailing from enormous volcanoes on Io (above), the only body in the solar system other than Earth with active volcanoes. PHOTOS COURTESY OF MERTON DAVIES |
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APPROPRIATENESS AND QUALITY OF CARE (1989-present) In 1989, a RAND literature review discovers that as many as 25 percent of acute hospital services or medical procedures for the elderly are suspected to be inappropriate, and 40 to 50 percent of their outpatient medications are overused. The researchers report a substantial problem in matching acute services to the needs of elderly patients. Throughout the 1990s, scores of RAND projects investigate potential methods to measure and improve the quality of care in various health care settings.
INVESTING IN CHILDREN (1996-present) A widely disseminated 1996 report, Diverting Children from a Life of Crime, measures, for the first time, the cost-effectiveness of intervention strategies for youth at risk of pursuing criminal careers. Three types of interventions--cash and other graduation incentives, parent training, and supervision of delinquent teens--appear more cost-effective in reducing crime than California's "three-strikes" law. A 1998 report, Investing in Our Children, examines an array of programs designed to promote healthy child development, particularly among disadvantaged children, in the first three years of life. The report concludes that these programs--home visits by nurses, parent training, and preschool--can provide significant benefits and that government funds invested early in the lives of some children might produce compensating decreases later on in government expenditures on welfare, criminal justice, and special-education programs.
Raynard Kington, codirector of the Drew/RAND Center on Health and Aging, addresses attendees at the "Spring into Health" conference in 1996. A joint effort by RAND and the Drew/King Medical Center in South Central Los Angeles, the Drew/RAND Center on Health and Aging seeks to develop a new model of interaction between research institutions and community groups.