PHOTO: DIANE BALDWIN
By Caroline S. Wagner
Caroline Wagner holds research positions at RAND Europe and the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
PHOTO: DIANE BALDWIN |
While talk about weapons of mass destruction dominates our attention today, "weapons of mass creation"—the potential to change the future of the human race through genetic manipulation—may, in some ways, be even more threatening. Just as the splitting of the atom unleashed great possibilities and terrible destructive powers, so the unraveling of the double helix offers us similarly daunting choices.
Most of the current debate focuses on cloning for reproduction, while genetic manipulation—sometimes called reprogenetics—is being actively pursued without much debate. The debate is limited because, for now, reprogenetics is focusing on curing diseases such as sickle cell anemia and Huntington's and offering regenerative medicine to Parkinson's victims.
But successes in eliminating or curing diseases will, down the road, lead to efforts to alter genes to enhance human traits. Many parents, desiring the best for their children, will want to use genetic manipulation to make their unborn children smarter, more creative, more attractive, or more athletic. Altering the random genetic combinations that make us who we are might seem worthwhile to individual families, but it could be disastrous for society as a whole.
Already many couples in Asia believe that having a son is a justifiable family goal, in part because sons will do more to support the parents in old age. Some achieve this goal by using genetic testing and selective abortions to produce boys. The result, according to the Global Health Council, is significant gender imbalances in many nations: China has 118 boys per 100 girls under age 5, South Korea has 117 to 100, and Taiwan has 110 to 100. Growing numbers of what demographer Nicholas Eberstadt calls "unmarriageable males" will have little hope of finding wives, leading to a range of social problems.
Now fast-forward several decades. Imagine your neighbors genetically enhancing their children's physical attractiveness and brainpower. Wouldn't it be hard to resist the opportunity to offer your children the same competitive advantages—or at least a level playing field?
The option to alter the genes that enhance desirable characteristics will almost surely be available, at least initially, only to the wealthy, creating what Lee Silver, a Princeton University biologist and genetic expert, calls the "GenRich." The wealthy will use technology to ensure their children have significantly more advantages than the random mix of the gene pool would provide.
The fallout from this "weapon of mass creation" will be a vastly more unequal world. The very founding principle of our society—that we are all created equal—will become a quaint notion. The temptation of the genetically enhanced to anoint themselves as leaders and protectors of their "less equal" fellow citizens could prove to be overwhelming.
And if scientists in one nation are genetically altering unborn children, wouldn't it be hard for other nations to resist joining in a "genetic arms race" to develop a new generation better able to compete in the global economy—or in war?
Although reprogenetics is still in the early stages of research, scientists report few obstacles to eventual success. We are standing at the gateway of a brave new world of genetic manipulation that could, in this century, create what Francis Fukuyama calls our "posthuman" future.
Before we step through the gate, we should look ahead and determine the consequences of the paths we could take and ask who gets to decide. Genetic alteration, even with altruistic aims, needs careful oversight and governance with the power of law—and not just by watchful scientists or government councils. Citizen councils that have broad representation and crossnational linkages—such as European councils on genetically modified foods—should be actively involved, and it is not too soon to begin. Anything less may well bring about a world where a post-human race dominates the rest. Which side will your progeny be on?