The animal kingdom is becoming a wellspring of insight for researchers hoping to develop novel military technologies and techniques.
In a recent RAND report, researchers examine deceptive techniques employed by various animals and suggest leveraging these techniques for use on the modern human battlefield. The researchers call for increased cultivation of deception techniques to support the U.S. military, notably for urban operations.
The scientific literature on animal and plant deception—where ruses of virtually infinite variety are applied to offense, defense, and intelligence gathering—is often richer and more rigorous than corresponding literature on military deception, the report notes.
All organisms seek accuracy in their perceptions, because survival depends on it. The corollary holds true: Causing inaccuracy in the perceptions of an adversary is advantageous. This is the essence of deception.
One example is the "false head" or "eyespot" used by many insects to lure, frighten, or confuse enemies. An effective technique in the animal kingdom, the false head already has a parallel in human warfare: the false cockpit painted on the underside of the Canadian CF-18 Hornet air-to-air fighter. This inexpensive bit of deception can produce a momentary—but decisive—advantage for the pilot in combat.
"Deception techniques are pervasive and enduring throughout the natural world, with a single species often employing more than one type of ruse for greater effect," said Scott Gerwehr, primary author of the report.
"Given how intolerant natural selection is of wasted effort, this suggests that deception is an adaptation as valuable as armor, speed, or firepower—and should be cultivated in our soldiery on both the technology and training sides."
For more information: Unweaving the Web: Deception and Adaptation in Future Urban Operations (RAND/MR-1495-A).
A major research and development program costing about $50 million over five to eight years is needed to sharply accelerate efforts to remove landmines that kill thousands of civilians each year in 90 nations, according to a RAND report.
"There is a desperate need for better landmine detection equipment," said Jacqueline MacDonald, an engineer and coauthor of the report. "Technology is available to create better tools to remove landmines, but nothing will be developed unless there is investment in a well-organized, focused research program."
The report said research is needed to develop new technology that can replace the World War II-era equipment—the mainstay of worldwide efforts to remove landmines. Researchers cited the need for a new generation of landmine detectors that would be more accurate and reliable to speed landmine removal.
Today's landmine detection equipment is primitive, relying on technology that results in a high number of false alarms, according to researchers. Landmine detectors used today operate via a technology that is unable to distinguish landmines from other metallic materials—by far the greatest limitation of the process.
Current levels of funding are insufficient, says the report. In 2002, the United States invested only $2.7 million for research and development on handheld detectors for humanitarian de-mining. The report concludes that no single mine detection technology exists that operates effectively against all mine types in all settings.
For more information: Alternatives for Landmine Detection (RAND/MR-1608-OSTP).
Widespread vaccination of Americans against smallpox is too dangerous to justify unless the likelihood of a major biological attack on the United States is substantial, but it is prudent to vaccinate health care workers now, according to a RAND study published in The New England Journal of Medicine.
The researchers believe that the risk of vaccinating health care workers is justified, because they are particularly vulnerable during smallpox outbreaks. Health care workers could come into close contact with those sick with smallpox, often before the disease is recognized.
Moreover, "if health care workers themselves became sick, it could threaten our ability to keep our hospitals open and our health care system running," said Samuel Bozzette, the study's lead author and infectious disease specialist affiliated with RAND, the Veterans Affairs San Diego Healthcare System, and the University of California at San Diego. "Vaccinating health workers presents a modest risk and could pay many benefits."
For this study, health care workers were defined to include everyone working in health and related services who would come into direct contact with sick people. This includes doctors, nurses, and others working in and around health care facilities, including paramedics, ambulance drivers, and hospital security guards.
Researchers developed a number of feasible smallpox attack scenarios, reviewed historical smallpox outbreaks, and developed a computer model that estimates the number of people who might be killed in each of the attacks under a number of policy options.
The researchers found that if nearly all 10 million health care workers in the United States were vaccinated against smallpox, an estimated 25 people would die. The table below indicates the number of health care workers and others who could die under various smallpox attack scenarios.
Two-thirds of the drug-related benefits from school-based drug prevention programs come from reduced tobacco and alcohol use, and the programs offer clear economic gains to society, according to a RAND study.
Only a third of the benefits involved the reduced use of illicit drugs, primarily cocaine. Reduced marijuana use accounted for a very small fraction of the benefits.
The benefits included lower health care costs, higher productivity, and lower costs to the criminal justice system.
"While we commonly think of these antidrug programs as targeted at street drugs, it turns out that most of the benefits that society receives are due to the cuts in the use of legal substances," said Jonathan Caulkins, lead author of the report.
"It may make sense to view school-based drug education programs as health promotion efforts generally—or as investments in the human capital of the next generation of Americans—rather than as purely anticrime initiatives."
Whereas the social cost of the typical school-based prevention program is on the order of $150 per student, researchers estimate that society receives $840 in benefits for each student who takes part. Even when using very conservative assumptions about the effectiveness of drug prevention programs, researchers estimate that the programs provide at least $300 in benefits for each participating student.
For more information: School-Based Drug Prevention: What Kind of Drug Use Does It Prevent? (RAND/MR-1459-RWJ).
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Reducing high fertility rates can help nations create a population age structure that is more likely to produce economic benefits—but only if policies are put in place to ensure quality health care, education, and job opportunities, according to a RAND report.
"Population change exerts a powerful influence on economic well-being," said David Bloom, coauthor of the report. For decades, experts have debated the relationship between population dynamics and economic performance. The report concludes that the debate has overlooked the effects of age structure—the way the population is spread across age groups.
When fertility rates fall, so does the number of young dependents. Soon, the proportion of workingage people increases (see figure). With a larger share of working-age people, nations may see a substantial boost in income growth and savings. This phenomenon is known as the "demographic dividend."
However, the demographic dividend is not automatic. For workers to be productive, they require education, jobs, and health care. Countries that fail to provide the necessary environment may face grim futures, Bloom said. These countries may face trouble as unemployment rises, the social fabric frays, and rising numbers of old people overwhelm the available resources.
For more information: The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change (RAND/MR-1274-WFHF/DLPF/RF/UNPF).
Nearly 50 percent of U.S. kids don't benefit from the recommended number of dental visits, and nearly 25 percent don't benefit from the recommended number of preventive pediatric visits. These are the findings of a recent RAND study published in Pediatrics.
The American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry and the American Academy of Pediatrics recommend schedules for dental visits and preventive pediatric visits—schedules that vary depending on the age of the child. The study of nearly 36,000 children under 18 years of age revealed substantial gaps between the recommended levels of care and the care actually received.
Children who are uninsured, who have a parent who is less than college educated, or who are in poor health are most at risk for not receiving the recommended care. Publicly insured children are more likely to make the recommended number of pediatric visits.
The RAND study calls for improving access to dental care for children, especially among adolescents and children in poor general health. "Dental health is critical for raising healthy children, but many children aren't getting adequate dental care," said Mark Schuster, an author of the study.
"Policymakers need to address this gap when considering policies to promote child and adolescent health," he said.
Contributions to colleges and universities in the United States dropped slightly during 2002—the first decline since 1988, according to the Council for Aid to Education, a subsidiary of RAND.
Private gifts to higher education declined 1.2 percent to $23.9 billion for the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2002. The drop was fueled primarily by a sharp decline in gifts from alumni, according to the survey, which has tracked giving to higher education for more than 50 years.
"The declining stock market and the weak economy are the two primary factors that contributed to the decline in contributions," said researcher Ann Kaplan. "Unfortunately, this decline in giving comes at a time when higher education institutions are seeing an overall retrenchment from other income sources as well."
Employees respond to an increase in the price of their health insurance by reducing their take-home pay and other benefits, such as life insurance, disability and dental insurance, and retirement benefits, according to a RAND study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
"Our results suggest that rising health insurance prices reduce not only employees' take-home pay but also their insurance purchases against a variety of other risks," said Dana Goldman, the lead author of the study. "If health insurance and other insurance products continue to rise—and individuals continue to reduce their purchases of health insurance and other insurance products—that might leave them vulnerable to health, mortality, disability, and other significant risks in the long run."
The study examined employee choices within a single large firm that offered a flexible benefits plan. Under such an arrangement, employees explicitly choose how to allocate compensation between cash and various benefits. Such plans cover about half of all workers in medium and large firms, and that proportion is growing.
The researchers found that a $1 increase in the price of health insurance leads employees with flexible benefits plans to increase their expenditures on health insurance by just 52 cents. The employees then pay about two-thirds of the increased expenditure out of their own wages and the remaining third by reducing other benefits, such as retirement.