RAND Review News for Spring 2009

• Mixed effects of charter schools
• High costs of methamphetamine
• Low enlistments of Hispanics
• Far-reaching implications of Mumbai

How Do Charter Schools Affect Outcomes? A Look Across Eight States

The number of charter schools continues to grow, but there has always been a contentious debate about whether charter schools provide a better education than do traditional public schools. A RAND study examining the impact of charter schools in eight states has found mixed results.

Proponents contend charter schools expand educational choices, increase innovation, improve student achievement, and provide much-needed competition to other public schools. Opponents argue charter schools lead to increased racial or ethnic stratification, skim the best students from other public schools, reduce resources for those schools, and provide no real improvement in student achievement.

The RAND study assesses the outcomes in four categories — integration, achievement, attainment, and competition — for charter schools in Chicago, Denver, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, San Diego, and the states of Florida, Ohio, and Texas.

In terms of integration, the study finds that charter schools are generally not “skimming the cream” in recruiting students. Students entering charter schools generally have prior achievement levels comparable to or lower than those of their peers in traditional public schools.

As for achievement, little evidence exists that charter schools are producing, on average, results that differ substantially from those of traditional public schools. But the evidence is incomplete, because the performance of charter elementary schools — which constitute a substantial proportion of all charter schools — cannot be easily assessed without test score data of students entering at the kindergarten level, which are unavailable.

“There is reason for concern about low performance among two specific groups of charter schools: those in their first year of operation, and ‘virtual’ charter schools (in Ohio) that serve students remotely through technology rather than in a conventional school building,” said Ron Zimmer, the report’s lead author.

The results for attainment are the most promising for charter schools. In the two locations with available data (Chicago and Florida), charter high schools increase the probability of students graduating from high school by 7–15 percentage points and of enrolling in college by 8–10 percentage points above the probability for students at other public schools.

Finally, in terms of competition, charter schools do not appear to produce effects that substantially help or harm student achievement in nearby traditional public schools.

A previous RAND report on Chicago’s charter high schools found that substantial positive effects on test scores, graduation rates, and college enrollment were solidly evident in only the multigrade charter high schools (those that include middle-school grades). Additional research is needed to determine how the charter high schools produced these results and whether district-run high schools can produce similar effects by incorporating middle grades and perhaps elementary grades onto the same campus.

For more information:

Charter Schools in Eight States: Effects on Achievement, Attainment, Integration, and Competition, RAND/MG-869-BMG/JOY/ WPF, ISBN 978-0-8330-4693-2, 2009.

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Achievement and Attainment in Chicago Charter Schools, RAND/TR-585-1-BMG/JOY/SRF/STRF/WPF, 2009.

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Methamphetamine Use Estimated to Cost Nation $23 Billion in 2005

Although national household surveys and school-based studies suggest that methamphetamine (meth) is a relatively minor drug of concern, regional data systems, law enforcement agencies, and county hospitals indicate it is the most significant problem facing the populations they serve. A comprehensive national assessment by RAND addresses these conflicting data, concluding that “the economic burden of meth abuse is substantial,” according to Nancy Nicosia, the lead study author.

Researchers were constrained by the facts that meth use data are far from complete and comprehensive and that the scientific literature has yet to develop consistent evidence of causal associations for many of the harms meth is believed to cause. Given this uncertainty, researchers created a range of estimates, as shown in the table. The best estimate of the overall economic burden of meth use in 2005 (the most recent year for which the needed data are available) is $23.4 billion, with a low estimate of $16.2 billion and a high one of $48.3 billion.

Researchers found that around 70 percent of the costs result from the intangible burden that addiction places on dependent users and from their premature mortality. The intangible burden was measured by quantifying the impact of the lower quality of life on those addicted to the drug. The best estimate of premature deaths from meth use in 2005 was around 900.

Crime and criminal justice expenses, which account for the second-largest category of costs, include the burden of arresting and incarcerating drug offenders and the costs of additional crimes committed under the influence of meth or to support meth habits. Lesser costs include lost productivity, health care spending from meth-involved illnesses, and drug treatment.

The study also captures two new categories of costs for the first time: child endangerment and meth production. No previous national study has examined child endangerment costs, but they are nontrivial, exceeding the costs of lost productivity and drug treatment. Costs associated with meth production are unique to this drug, because toxic chemicals can generate fires, explosions, and other events. These costs include the injuries of emergency personnel and other victims, along with efforts to clean up the hazardous waste from the production process.

The study argues for caution in interpreting the evidence from national household surveys and school-based studies. Those who impose the greatest cost on society are those who become addicted, engage in crime, need treatment or emergency assistance, cannot show up for work, lose their jobs, or die prematurely — populations that are not adequately represented in household- or school-based surveys.

The new data “highlight the consequences of meth use and focus attention on the primary drivers of those costs, but more work is needed to identify areas where interventions to reduce these harms could prove most cost-effective,” Nicosia said.

For more information:

The Economic Costs of Methamphetamine Use in the United States, 2005, RAND/MG-829-MPF/NIDA, 2009.

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Hispanics Underrepresented Among U.S. Enlistments, Despite Interest

Hispanic youth are underrepresented among enlistments in all branches of the U.S. armed forces. According to a RAND study, these youth fail to meet eligibility requirements despite their greater interest in military service.

The figure shows that most youth in the United States do not qualify for enlistment in any military branch, based on the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth from 1997 to 2003. But Hispanic and black youth are disqualified more often than white youth, as are women within most racial and ethnic categories.

The study identifies why Hispanics in particular are underrepresented among enlistments, given the common disqualifying factors of education, Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) score, weight, number of dependents, convictions, and drug-related offenses. For Hispanics, the key factors are below-average rates of high school graduation, lower AFQT scores — possibly because of language difficulties — and being overweight.

In contrast, a 2007 U.S. Department of Defense poll of American youth ages 18 to 24 found relatively high interest in military service among Hispanics. Thirteen percent of Hispanic respondents said they were probably or definitely going to join the military, compared with 10 percent of black and 7 percent of white respondents.

“Hispanics who join the military tend to serve longer and be promoted faster than their white counterparts,” said Beth Asch, the lead author and a RAND senior economist. “What is needed are strategies to help more Hispanics meet recruitment standards or to recruit more intensively among those who already meet the standards.”

The military could recruit more overweight candidates by enrolling them in weight-reduction programs while they are in its Delayed Entry Program. The military could also relax the weight standards at entry or stratify the weight requirements by job description. Or it could ease the weight standard while retaining the strength standards, an option the U.S. Marine Corps has adopted and the U.S. Army is testing.

Disqualifying factors such as high school graduation rates and low AFQT scores may be difficult for the military to overcome, because these factors depend greatly on outside influences, from the recruits’ parental education levels to family income. But through outreach efforts that emphasize the benefits of being eligible for military service, the military may be able to inspire potential recruits to complete their education, according to researchers.

For Hispanic youth with more education (especially some college), the military faces significant competition from civilian employers and colleges, the study finds. For these youth, military recruitment efforts should promote the availability of higher education benefits, leadership opportunities, and the chance to serve one’s country.

For more information:

Military Enlistment of Hispanic Youth: Obstacles and Opportunities, RAND/MG-773-OSD, ISBN 978-0-8330-4572-0, 2009.

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Mumbai Terrorist Attacks Show Rise of Strategic Terrorist Culture

The November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, may qualify as India’s 9/11, significant in their audacity, their ambition, the complexity of the operation, and the diversity of targets — according to a RAND study completed in December 2008 and updated in January 2009.

“India will continue to face a serious jihadist threat from Pakistan-based terrorist groups, and neither Indian nor U.S. policy is likely to reduce that threat in the near future,” said Angel Rabasa, lead author and a RAND senior political scientist. “Other extremist groups in Pakistan likely will find inspiration in the Mumbai attacks, and we can expect more attacks with high body counts and symbolic targets.”

The study provides evidence suggesting that planning began as far back as mid-2007, as shown in the timeline. The attacks were precisely planned and well-coordinated: The terrorists had detailed maps and information about each of the targets they hit, and the multiple targets were carefully chosen for their religious, political, and cultural values. The attacks killed more than 170 people and injured nearly 300.

“The defining characteristic of the Mumbai attack, and what makes it so alarming, is not just the ruthless killing, but the meticulous planning and preparation that went into the operation,” said Brian Michael Jenkins, a leading terrorism expert and RAND senior adviser. “This indicates a level of strategic thought — a strategic culture — that poses a difficult challenge: Not whether we can outgun the terrorists, but can we outthink them?”

The report analyzes key weaknesses in India’s general counterterrorism and threat-mitigation structure, including gaps in coastal surveillance, inadequate “target hardening,” incomplete execution of response protocols, response timing problems, inadequate counterterrorism training and equipment for the local police, limitations of municipal fire and emergency services, flawed hostage-rescue plans, and poor strategic communications and information management.

The attacks have significant and potentially far-reaching implications for India, Pakistan, and the international community. Specifically, India is inclined to hold Pakistan responsible for the attacks and may look for a way to deter future attacks. Both countries have nuclear weapons, making any military action a dangerous course, but continuous terrorist attacks on India from terrorist bases in Pakistan could provoke a military confrontation.

On the other hand, the focus on Pakistan should not obscure the fact that the terrorists likely had help from inside India. Local radicalization is a major goal of the terrorists and a major political and social challenge for India.

Still, the Mumbai attacks underscore the need to address the transnational sources of Islamist terrorism in India. How to do this is an extraordinarily difficult question that will require the international community to reassess its policies toward Pakistan.

The Lessons of Mumbai, RAND/OP-249-RC, ISBN 978-0-8330-4667-3, 2009.

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