State of the Union

The European Union (EU) has grown not only in size but also in global prominence. That was the message of Carl Bildt, the current foreign minister and former prime minister of Sweden, who spoke recently at a RAND Europe reception in Brussels.

DAVID PLAS

Former RAND trustee Carl Bildt, the current foreign minister and former prime minister of Sweden, speaks at a RAND Europe reception in Brussels on October 8, 2009.

Although officially established with the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, the EU had its origins in 1950 with the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community. From the six countries in the original community, the EU has since grown to its present membership of 27 countries. Bildt, who served as the EU envoy to the former Yugoslavia and first high representative in Bosnia from 1995 to 1997 and subsequently on the RAND board of trustees, focused on the expanding role of the EU in addressing the issues confronting Europe and the world at large.

Fulfilling Its Potential

The EU’s relevance in Europe and beyond has increased particularly since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, said Bildt. “Everything changed radically and suddenly within a couple of months. Europe went from a world in which tanks faced tanks at Checkpoint Charlie and divisions stood against each other at the Fulda Gap to a world in which all the fundamental issues of peace, prosperity, and security in one of the most war-torn and conflict-ridden parts of the world were suddenly on the agenda.”

In the 20 years since, according to Bildt, the EU has only begun to tap its potential and ability. “Those 27 countries represent a half billion people, the biggest integrated economy by far in the world, and the biggest trading entity in the world — bigger than the number two and three entities combined,” he said, referring to the United States and Japan.

On the other hand, the relevance — indeed the credibility — of the EU as a global actor requires it to demonstrate having “a model for security and prosperity for its own part of the world.” To that end, Bildt underscored the EU’s need to continue the work it has done in the Balkans and Turkey in particular.

In the west Balkans, which has 20 to 25 million people, Bildt noted that the forces of integration confront the forces of disintegration. “Lots of blockages need to be unblocked in dealing with the Balkans to keep the momentum up for integration into the EU and ultimately NATO.” As for Turkey’s integration into the EU, Bildt recognized that there are divided views but said it is natural and healthy for there to be a vigorous public debate. “Some argue that Turkey’s accession into the EU is one bridge too far, but doing so will show, for internal creation and global credibility, that the EU can bridge and overcome the difficulties and prejudices of the past.”

He also discussed the EU’s Union of the Mediterranean initiative, launched last summer in Paris, with 16 partners across the southern Mediterranean and Middle East committed to addressing regional issues in which the EU has a huge stake. “Over the next 15 to 20 years, the countries of North Africa and the Mediterranean will add 160 million people — the equivalent of two ‘new Egypts.’ If these countries open up their economies and societies, they will have the potential for economic expansion and a political renaissance; if they don’t, the Mediterranean is not wide enough to insulate Europe from the consequences of failure.”

Beyond the Immediate Neighborhood

The EU also has a stake in what happens between the eastern boundaries of Europe and the western border of China, said Bildt. This is a vast region that includes 12 countries and enormous numbers of people: Russia (140 million people), the five countries of Central Asia (60 million people), and the six countries of the “Eastern Partnership” of former Soviet states (80 million people).

Regarding the Eastern Partnership, successive EU enlargements have brought these countries — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and Belarus — geographically closer to the EU. Their stated wishes to be ideologically closer to the EU means their security, stability, and prosperity increasingly have spillover effects on the EU.

“Through the Eastern Partnership, the EU is developing relationships with these countries, treating them as sovereign entities that have a right to determine their own destinies,” Bildt said. “This can set the stage for integration into the EU” or at least into what Bildt called the European “structures of integration,” such as “the principle of the rule of law to promote good governance, the strengthening of energy security, and the pursuit of deep and comprehensive free trade agreements.”

In the context of conflict resolution, Bildt discussed the EU role in Afghanistan. While acknowledging that the United States is making a significantly larger military contribution than is the EU, he described the situation from the European perspective. “The EU has more forces in Afghanistan than it had in the Balkans during the height of the Balkan wars and more forces in Afghanistan than anywhere outside the borders of Europe in modern history. So, in relative terms, the EU’s military contribution is very significant.”

On the other hand, he stressed the need for a comprehensive approach to establishing stability in Afghanistan, as reflected in a recent report by General Stanley McChrystal, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan. “There is too much emphasis on military versus political approaches,” Bildt noted. “The EU is contributing a billion euros a year to help Afghanistan achieve stability, and we need to do more. But we must develop strategic patience there, because it will be a long process of state-building.”