Paul K. Davis — Publications

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Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction - 2011

Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning: Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New Strategy - 2011

Structuring Analysis to Support Future Decisions about Nuclear Forces and Postures - 2011

Measuring the Effectiveness of Border Security Between Ports-of-Entry - 2010

Military Transformation? Which Transformation, and What Lies Ahead? - 2010

Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges - 2010

Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs: Prototype Analysis - 2010

Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with al-Qaeda - 2010

RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual - 2009

Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together - 2009

Specifying the Content of Humble Social-Science Models - 2009

Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis - 2008

Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations - 2008

Finding Candidate Options for Investment: From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary Screening - 2008

Improving Strategic Planning at the Department of Defense - 2008

Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options - 2008

Setting Global Defense Strategy in the Face of Uncertainty - 2008

Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation - 2007

Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments - 2007

Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking - 2007

A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User’s Manual - 2005

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems - 2005

Introduction to Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis - 2005

Challenges in Virtual Collaboration: Videoconferencing, Audioconferencing, and Computer-Mediated Communications - 2004

Improving the Composability of Department of Defense Models and Simulations - 2004

Modern Decision Support Science Suggests New Methods and Tools to Support Military Decisionmaking - 2004

Assessing the Validity of Uncertain Models - 2003

Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis - 2003

Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review’s Operational Goals - 2003

Military Applications of Simulation: A Selected Review - 2003

Modeling Adversaries and Related Cognitive Biases - 2003

Motivated Metamodels: Synthesis of Cause-Effect Reasoning and Statistical Metamodeling - 2003

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking - 2003

RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003 - 2003

Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation - 2002

Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda - 2002

Integrating Transformation Programs - 2002

Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-Access Strategies: Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf - 2002

Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community - 2001

Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling - 2001

EXHALT: Interdiction Model for Exploring Halt Capabilities in a Large Scenario Space - 2000

Effects of Terrain, Maneuver Tactics, and C4ISR on the Effectiveness of Long-Range Precision Fires: A Stochastic Multiresolution Model (PEM) Calibrated to High-Resolution Simulation - 2000

Ground Forces for a Rapidly Employable Joint Task Force: First-Week Capabilities for Short-Warning Conflicts - 2000

Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on "Transforming the Force" - 1999

Experiments In Multiresolution Modeling (MRM) - 1998

Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy: The DynaRank Decision-Support System - 1998

Transforming the Force: Suggestions for DoD Strategy - 1998

Exploratory Analysis of ''The Halt Problem": A Briefing on Methods and Initial Insights - 1997

Protecting weak and medium-strength states : issues of deterrence, stability, and decision making - 1997

Strategic Issues and Options for the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) - 1997

A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning - 1996

Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework - 1996

Aggregation, Disaggregation, and the 3:1 Rules in Ground Combat - 1995

Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies - 1994

New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough - 1994

An Introduction to Variable-Resolution Modeling and Cross-Resolution Model Connection - 1993

Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era: Giving Meaning to Flexibility, Adaptiveness, and Robustness of Capability - 1993

Proceedings of Conference on Variable-Resolution Modeling, Washington DC, 5-6 May 1992 - 1993

Stopping the North Korean Nuclear Program - 1993

Toward a Comprehensive Environment for Computer Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis - 1993

Extended Deterrence, Compellence and the ''Old World Order'' - 1992

Generalizing Concepts and Methods of Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) for Military Simulations - 1992

Variable-Resolution Combat Modeling: Motivations, Issues, and Principles - 1992

Deterring or Coercing Opponents in Crisis: Lessons from the War with Saddam Hussein - 1991

Possible Postwar Force Requirements for the Persian Gulf: How Little Is Enough? - 1991

The Base of Sand Problem: A White Paper on the State of Military Combat Modeling - 1991

Thinking About Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict: A Generic Model for Analysis and Group Discussion - 1991

An Analyst's Primer for the RAND/ABEL Programming Language - 1990

Planning for Long-Term Security in Central Europe: Implications of the New Strategic Environment - 1990

Representing Operational Strategies and Command-Control in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) - 1990

A Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Central Europe - 1989

Central Region Stability in a Deep-Cuts Regime - 1989

Modeling of Soft Factors in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) - 1989

National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty - 1989

Simulated Central Region Conflicts at Nominal Parity and Low Force Levels - 1989

Some Lessons Learned from Building Red Agents in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) - 1989

Studying First-Strike Stability with Knowledge-Based Models of Human Decisionmaking - 1989

Variables Affecting Central-Region Stability: The 'Operational Minimum' and Other Issues at Low Force Levels - 1989

Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation - 1988

Explanation Mechanisms for Knowledge-Based Models in the RAND Strategy Assessment System - 1988

Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning - 1988

Main Theater Warfare Modeling in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (3.0) - 1988

Overview of System Software in the RAND Strategy Assessment System - 1988

The Role of Uncertainty in Assessing the NATO/Pact Central Region Balance - 1988

Toward a Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Europe's Central Region - 1988

Analytic War Gaming with the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) - 1987

Formalization of Tradeoff Rules and Other Techniques for Comprehending Complex Rule-Based Models - 1987

Modeling Wartime Decisionmaking at the National Command Level - 1987

A New Analytic Technique for the Study of Deterrence, Escalation Control, and War Termination - 1986

A New Methodology for Modeling National Command Level Decisionmaking in War Games and Simulations - 1986

Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation - 1985

Characterizing the Temperaments of Red and Blue Agents: Models of Soviet and U.S. Decisionmakers - 1985

Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning - 1985

Search for a Red Agent to be Used in War Games and Simulations - 1985

Concepts and Models of Escalation - 1984

RAND's Experience in Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Military-Political War Gaming - 1984

The Role of Automated War Gaming in Strategic Analysis - 1984

Automated War Gaming as a Technique for Exploring Strategic Command and Control Issues - 1983

The RAND Strategy Assessment Center: An Overview and Interim Conclusions about Utility and Development Options - 1983

Treatment of Escalation in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center - 1983

Concepts for improving the military content of automated war games - 1982

Improving the Military Content of Strategy Analysis Using Automated War Games: A Technical Approach and an Agenda for Research - 1982

Observations on the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force: Origins, Direction, and Mission - 1982

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