New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan's Security

by Roger Cliff, Phillip C. Saunders, Scott Warren Harold

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Abstract

On November 7, 2009, the RAND Corporation, the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University, and the Council for Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei held the conference "Cross-Strait Relations: New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan's Security," which brought together leading experts on political and military issues from both the United States and Taiwan. The goal was to consider how a range of political, economic, and military factors are likely to shape Taiwan's security over the coming decade. The conference featured panels on the implications of recent improvements in relations between Taiwan and mainland China, the potential role of confidence-building measures in improving cross-Strait stability and security, the effect of changes in the military balance on cross-Strait relations, and longer-term (five to ten or more years in the future) challenges to security in the Taiwan Strait and possible responses to those challenges. The panelists' papers, presented in these proceedings, included examinations of current cross-State tensions and the feasibility of confidence-building measures, U.S.-Taiwan and U.S.-China relations, political change and military capabilities in Taiwan and China, deepened cross-Strait rapprochement, and challenges to Taiwan's defense program and potential Chinese military operations in the Strait.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Recent Developments in Cross-Strait Relations and Their Security Implications: PRC Perspectives

  • Chapter Two

    The Security Implications of China-Taiwan Economic Integration

  • Chapter Three

    China's Approach to CBMs with Taiwan: Lessons from China's CBMs with Neighboring Countries

  • Chapter Four

    Cross-Strait CBMs: Taiwan's Views on Opportunities, Obstacles, and Challenges

  • Chapter Five

    Cross-Strait CBMs: Like a Fish Needs a Bicycle?

  • Chapter Six

    Limits of Coercion: Compellence, Deterrence, and Cross-Strait Political-Military Affairs

  • Chapter Seven

    Implications of Improvements in PRC Naval Capabilities: 2000-2010

  • Chapter Eight

    The Red Rockets' Glare: Implications of Improvements in PRC Air and Missile Strike Capabilities

  • Chapter Nine

    Implications of Recent and Planned Changes in Taiwan's Defense Posture

  • Chapter Ten

    Taiwan's Long-Term Challenges and Strategic Preparations

  • Chapter Eleven

    Alternative Futures: Long-Term Challenges for the United States

  • Chapter Twelve

    Deeper Cross-Strait Rapprochement and PLA Modernization: Implications for China's Relations with Asia and the United States

  • Chapter Thirteen

    A New Taiwan Strategy to Adapt to PLA Precision Strike Capabilities

The research described in this report was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation conference proceeding series. RAND conference proceedings present a collection of papers delivered at a conference or a summary of the conference.

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