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Abstract

No one knows what the world will look like in 25 years, but the U.S. Army must take steps now if it is to defend itself against future enemies, no matter what the world looks like. This briefing examines six future scenarios and looks at potential areas of air and missile defense shortfalls. The authors conclude that the threat of cruise missiles is present in all scenarios, and the Army should beef up its short-range air defenses. With regard to theater ballistic missiles (TBMs), the authors conclude that the threat will be high only if the U.S. is engaged in a conventional conflict and therefore the Army may want to wait until future trends define themselves more clearly before increasing investments in countering TBMs.

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