Document Information
The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors
As the 21st century unfolds, the dynamics of population growth, settlement patterns, and movement across borders are certain to have an effect on international security. Demographic shifts in political environments that are already tense as a result of territorial disputes, ethnic rivalries, ideological divides, or environmental stresses may provide just enough pressure to spark a violent conflict or perhaps even outright war. Demographic factors are thus worthy of analysis as potential contributors to armed conflict. The author lays out a general framework for looking at population developments through the prism of security issues, proffering some preliminary assessments as to which trends or factors might threaten U.S. interests around the world. Based on this analysis, there appear to be three broad areas of response: (1) A useful practice would be to create and place increased focus on demographically oriented indicators and warning measures. It will be important to understand how demographic pressures might be constraining the actions of key allies, increasing frictions between key regional powers, and/or laying the foundations for ethnic conflict. (2) Carefully targeted foreign aid may help some key friends and allies to better manage the effects of rapid population growth, allowing them to conserve resources and reform their political systems to take into account emerging demographic realities. (3) From the U.S. Army's standpoint, the most important consequence of demographic trends is the increasing urbanization of conflict. In the short term, training will be important to obtain improvements in military operations on urbanized terrain (MOUT) capabilities. Over the longer term, research in new technologies will improve the ability of U.S. ground forces to operate in urban areas, for example, advanced intelligence-gathering platforms, better personnel protection, and a new generation of nonlethal weapons.
See Also:
News ReleaseResearch BriefResearch BriefResearch Brief
Related Report
Support RAND Research — Buy This Product!
Paperback Cover Price: $8.00
Discounted Web Price: $7.20
Pages: 74
ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-2780-8
Free, downloadable PDF file(s) are available below.
RAND makes an electronic version of this document available for free as a public service. If you find this information valuable, please consider purchasing a paper copy of the full document to help support RAND research.
Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience.
Contents
Preface HTML
Figures HTML
Tables HTML
Summary HTML
Acknowledgments HTML
Chapter One:
Introduction HTML
Chapter Two:
The Evolving View of Population As a National Security Variable HTML
Chapter Three:
Key Demographic Trends HTML
Chapter Four:
The Security Implications of Demographic Factors HTML
Chapter Five:
Implications for U.S. Policy HTML
The study is a product of the Population Matters project within RAND's Labor and Population unit, and RAND's Arroyo Center.
The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
* RAND research is conducted across divisions, centers, and projects; these organizational components are represented in the "Related RAND Divisions" section above.
Top
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2008 RAND Corporation. Last Modified: December 07, 2007 