Cover: Interpreting China's Grand Strategy

Interpreting China's Grand Strategy

Past, Present, and Future

by Michael D. Swaine, Ashley J. Tellis

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Abstract

China's continuing rapid economic growth and expanding involvement in global affairs pose major implications for the power structure of the international system. To more accurately and fully assess the significance of China's emergence for the United States and the global community, it is necessary to gain a more complete understanding of Chinese security thought and behavior. This study addresses such questions as: What are China's most fundamental national security objectives? How has the Chinese state employed force and diplomacy in the pursuit of these objectives over the centuries? What security strategy does China pursue today and how will it evolve in the future? The study asserts that Chinese history, the behavior of earlier rising powers, and the basic structure and logic of international power relations all suggest that, although a strong China will likely become more assertive globally, this possibility is unlikely to emerge before 2015-2020 at the earliest. To handle this situation, the study argues that the United States should adopt a policy of realistic engagement with China that combines efforts to pursue cooperation whenever possible; to prevent, if necessary, the acquisition by China of capabilities that would threaten America's core national security interests; and to remain prepared to cope with the consequences of a more assertive China.

Table of Contents

  • Preface PDF

  • Figures

    Maps, Figures, and Table PDF

  • Summary PDF

  • Acknowledgements

    Acknowledgments PDF

  • Acronyms PDF

  • Chronology of Chinese History PDF

  • Chapter One

    China As a National Security Concern PDF

  • Chapter Two

    China's Security Problem PDF

  • Chapter Three

    The Historical Context PDF

  • Chapter Four

    China's Current Security Strategy: Features and Implications PDF

  • Chapter Five

    China Faces the Future: the Far Term PDF

  • Chapter Six

    Conclusions PDF

  • Bibliography PDF

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