on Facebook
on Twitter
on YouTube
Document Information
Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict
Application of a Process Model
Intrastate communitarian strife, often dubbed ethnic conflict, has gained much attention in the aftermath of the Cold War. Certainly, intrastate conflict has been by far the dominant form of strife in the world in the 1990s. This report outlines a model for anticipating the occurrence of communitarian and ethnic conflict. The model is not a mechanistic tool, but a process-based heuristic device with a threefold purpose: (1) to orderthe analyst's thinking about the logic and dynamics of potential ethnically based violence and to aid in defining the information-collection requirements of such an analysis; (2) to provide a general conceptual framework about how ethnic grievances form and group mobilization occurs and how these could lead to violence under certain conditions; and (3) to assist the intelligence community with the long-range assessment of possible ethnic strife. The theoretical model explains how the potential for strife should be understood; how the potential for strife is transformed, through mobilization, into a likelihood of strife; and how extant state capacities interact through a process of strategic bargaining withmobilized groups to produce, under certain conditions, varying degrees of strife. Use of the model is demonstrated through its application to four case studies, two retrospective (Yugoslavia and South Africa) and two prospective (Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia).
See Also:
Support RAND Research — Buy This Product!
Paperback Cover Price: $35.00
Discounted Web Price: $31.50
Pages: 339
ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-2842-1
Contents
Preface PDF
Figures PDF
Tables PDF
Acknowledgments PDF
Chapter One:
Introduction PDF
Chapter Two:
The Process Model for Anticipating Ethnic Conflict PDF
Chapter Three:
The Yugoslav Retrospective Case PDF
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Yugoslavia in the Late 1980s
Chapter Four:
The South African Retrospective Case PDF
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of South Africa in the Late 1980s
Chapter Five:
The Ethiopian Prospective Case PDF
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Ethiopia in 1997-1998
Chapter Six:
The Saudi Arabian Prospective Case PDF
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Saudi Arabia in 1997-1998
Chapter Seven:
Final Observations PDF
Appendix PDF
The research described in this report was performed under the auspices of RAND's Arroyo Center division.
The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
* RAND research is conducted across divisions, centers, and projects; these organizational components are represented in the "Related RAND Divisions" section above.
Top
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2009 RAND Corporation. Last Modified: December 07, 2007 