Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-Access Strategies
Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf
This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an early halt or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns. The authors emphasize exploratory analysis under massive uncertainty about political and military developments and about the detailed circumstances of conflict. The book documents a specialized model used for mission system analysis, which helps identify critical enablers of early-halt capability: deployment; immediate command-control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; ability to employ interdiction forces quickly; and weapon effectiveness. The United States should expect threatened or actual use of mass-casualty weapons against its forces and regional allies and enemy attempts to act quickly and with short warning. On the other hand, the threat's size and quality may be less than usually assumed. On the military side, the book characterizes parametrically the conditions for a successful early halt, thereby identifying high-priority strategic hedges, capability developments, and potential adaptations. The book considers joint forces for interdiction and synergy with rapidly employable ground forces. On the political side, the book notes the premium on continued forward basing, aggressive use of ambiguous warning, and long-range bombers. Continued enforcement of red-line constructs could greatly improve the likelihood of decisive response to ambiguous warning. Countering anti-access strategies would be enhanced by negotiating use of more distant bases and logistic preparation. It will be increasingly unwise to assume use of forward bases, even if technical analysis suggests that the bases could operate under attacks with mass-casualty weapons.
- Format:
- Paperback, 224 Pages
- Year:
- 2002
- List Price:
- $45.00
- Price:
- $36.00 Special 20% Web Discount
- Full Document (pdf format) (File size 5.9 MB)
Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience.
Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Available
- Format: Paperback
- Pages: 224
- List Price: $45.00
- Price: $36.00
- ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-3107-4
- Document Number: MR-1471-AF
- Year: 2002
- Series: Monograph Reports
Contents
Chapter 1
Introduction
Chapter 2
Overview of the Halt Problem
Chapter 3
Analytics of the Elementary Halt Problem
Chapter 4
Losses to Air Defense and Tradeoffs Between Losses and Halt Time
Chapter 5
Ground Forces at a Defense Line
Chapter 6
Factors Reflecting Weapons Supply, C2, C4ISR, Terrain, and Enemy Maneuver Tactics
Chapter 7
Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty
Chapter 8
Illustrative Analysis Toward Adaptive Strategy
Appendix A
Representing Different Shooter Types
Appendix B
Summary of Variables Used in Models
Appendix C
Summary Description of Exhalt 1.5
Appendix D
An Approximation for Cases in Which Texh Occurs Before Twait
Appendix E
General Formulas for Leading-Edge Strategy
Appendix F
Notes on Implementation in Analytica
The research described in this report was performed under the auspices of RAND's Project AIR FORCE.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2012 RAND Corporation.