Aft and Fore

A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis of Navy Officer Management

by Harry J. Thie, Margaret C. Harrell, Kevin Brancato, Jefferson P. Marquis, Clifford M. Graf II, Roland J. Yardley, Jerry M. Sollinger

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Abstract

Focusing on its ability to meet current and future demands, the Navy recently examined its officer structure and as a result asked RAND to analyze changes in authorizations and inventory, to compare authorizations and inventory and potential gaps in costs related to them, and to estimate personnel requirements for the years 2010 and 2017. Based on this research, the authors discern trends and cycles in officer requirements and inventory as well as the evolution of policy and management of the officer corps. Among their suggestions, the authors recommend that the Navy shape the size and composition of the officer corps so that it is structured to meet future missions rather than relying on its current tendency to react to past changes in the internal and external environment. They also recommend that the Navy manage its communities individually and flexibly, using such tools as broader promotion zones and that it consider manpower costs by community and grade when planning for and filling requirements. The two future scenarios clarify the inflexibility of existing management tools and also help explore the policy changes necessary to respond to the types of changes outlined in the report.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Laws, Policies, and Initiatives Relevant to Officer Management

  • Chapter Three

    Officer Inventory and Requirements: Analysis of Historical Data

  • Chapter Four

    Gap Analysis: Deltas, Differences, and Mismatches

  • Chapter Five

    Gap Analysis Costing

  • Chapter Six

    Future Requirements and Inventory

  • Chapter Seven

    Officer Management Implications of Future Manpower Requirements

  • Chapter Eight

    Conclusions and Recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Navy Officer Programmed Authorization Predictions by Community

  • Appendix B

    Navy Program of Record, Fiscal Years 2000-2010

The research described in this report was conducted for the U.S. Navy within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.

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