Faultlines of Conflict in Central Asia and the South Caucasus

Implications for the U.S. Army

Edited by Olga Oliker, Thomas S. Szayna

Contributors: Tanya Charlick-Paley, Phil Williams, Abraham S. Becker, Sergej Mahnovski, William O'Malley

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Abstract

This report identifies and evaluates key faultlines in Central Asia and South Caucasus and how they affect the likelihood and possible evolution of armed conflict in these regions. These faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions as well as foreign interests and influence; and the impact of competition over natural resources. The analysis then examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the United States into the strife and examines the operational challenges that the region poses for possible Army deployments in the 2010-2015 time frame.

Table of Contents

  • Preface

    Preface, Figures, Tables, Summary, Acknowledgments PDF

  • Chapter One

    Introduction PDF

    Thomas S. Szayna and Olga Oliker

  • Chapter Two

    The Political Evolution of Central Asia and South Caucasus: Implications for Regional Security PDF

    Tanya Charlick-Paley with Phil Williams and Olga Oliker

  • Chapter Three

    Some Economic Dimensions of Security in Central Asia and South Caucasus PDF

    Abraham S. Becker

  • Chapter Four

    Criminalization and Stability in Central Asia and South Caucasus PDF

    Phil Williams

  • Chapter Five

    Natural Resources and Potential Conflict in the Caspian Sea Region PDF

    Sergej Mahnovski

  • Chapter Six

    Potential for Ethnic Conflict in the Caspian Region PDF

    Thomas S. Szayna

  • Chapter Seven

    Conflict in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Implications of Foreign Interests and Involvement PDF

    Olga Oliker

  • Chapter Eight

    Central Asia and South Caucasus as an Area of Operations: Challenges and Constraints PDF

    William D. O’Malley

  • Chapter Nine

    Sources of Conflict and Paths to U.S. Involvement PDF

    Olga Oliker and Thomas S. Szayna

  • Bibliography PDF

Book Review Excerpts

"Faultlines is a must-have textbook for the professional analyst or the student. It covers a broad range of subjects including political, economic and social factors that shape Central Asia and the South Caucasus. One could write volumes on these subjects independently, but the editors have created a one-stop desk reference for anyone who needs to know details on virtually any topic relating to this region."

- Comparative Strategy, Volume 23/Number 2

"This fact-filled, jargon-free guide to the political, economic, and religious tensions of the region contains many tables and will serve as a handy reference book for any library. Highly recommended."

- CHOICE Magazine, June 2004

"Overall, the analysis is solid and reliable, so the book carries a lot of convincing power and, therefore, is of significant interest for many categories of readers."

- Journal of Peace Research

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army and conducted by the RAND Arroyo Center.

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