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Cuba

Clearing Perilous Waters?

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By: Edward Gonzalez

This report assesses Cuba's current political dynamics and economic prospects, and where Cuba is headed. It analyzes the regime's major civilian and military leaders and institutions, the civil society groups emerging outside the regime, and the respective roles of all these actors in the years ahead. It then evaluates how current U.S. policy, and the options of tightening or lifting the embargo, might hasten or hinder the transition toward a more democratic, market-oriented Cuba. Although it cautions that the final outcome of Cuba's current transition will be determined internally rather than by U.S. policy, the report concludes by proposing a new, bolder U.S. strategy to help accelerate the process of fundamental change on the island.

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Pages: 145

ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-2374-8

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Contents

Chapter One:
Introduction

Part I: Cuba in Transition

Chapter Two:
Cuba: Heading for Safe or Perilous Waters?

Chapter Three:
Domestic Factors Affecting Cuban Outcomes

Chapter Four:
Regime Leaders, Tendencies, and Institutional Players

Chapter Five:
Civil Society Actors

Part II: U.S. Policy and Cuba

Chapter Six:
Present U.S. Policy and Its Options

Chapter Seven:
U.S. Policy Options and Cuban Futures

Chapter Eight:
A Proactive Policy for Cuba

Postscript

Appendix:
Actors, Models, and Endgames

Bibliography

This project was conducted under the International Security and Defense Policy Center of RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and the defense agencies.

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