Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply

by Michael Murray, Laurie L. McDonald

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Abstract

The authors estimate an econometric model of high-quality enlistment supply using geographically disaggregated data from two periods, FY83-87 and FY90-93. They find that econometric models based on data from the earlier period do not predict the recruiting difficulties reported by the military in the 1990s. This conforms to a preliminary assessment provided by Asch and Orvis (MR-549-A/OSD, 1994). The authors also find that econometric models estimated with the 1990s data give altered counsel about the effects of at least some policy variables, most notably the number of recruiters.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Variables Influencing Enlistment Supply

  • Chapter Three

    The Econometric Models

  • Chapter Four

    Empirical Results

  • Chapter Five

    Conclusions and Recommendations

  • Appendix A

    A Formal Model of Enlistment Supply

  • Appendix B

    The Stochastic Specification and Estimation Procedures

  • Appendix C

    Estimation Results for Aggregate and Logarithmic Models for the Army

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