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Out of the Ordinary
Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior
This monograph presents a unique approach to “connecting the dots” in intelligence – selecting and assembling disparate pieces of information to produce a general understanding of a threat. Modeled after key thought processes used by successful and proactive problem solvers to identify potential threats, the Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing (ASAP) schema described in this document identifies out-of-the-ordinary, atypical behavior that is potentially related to terror activity; seeks to understand the behavior by putting it into context; generates and tests hypotheses about what the atypical behavior might mean; and prioritizes the results, focusing analysts’ attention on the most significant atypical findings. In addition to discussing the schema, the authors describe a supporting conceptual architecture and present specific techniques for identifying and analyzing out-of-the-ordinary information. An appendix presents the scenario for a hypothetical terrorist attack, describes the events leading up to the “attack,” and shows how ASAP could have been used to help intelligence analysts identify the threat.
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Pages: 188
ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-3520-7
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Contents
Chapter One:
Introduction
Chapter Two:
Data Analyzed in the ASAP Schema
Chapter Three:
The Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing Architecture
Chapter Four:
Finding the Dots
Chapter Five:
Connecting the Dots
Chapter Six:
Understanding the Dots: Generating and Testing Hypotheses
Chapter Seven:
Conclusion
Appendix:
- Case Study: “The November 9th Incident”
- Systems Related to the ASAP Architecture
This research in the public interest was supported by RAND, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND’s donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense.
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