A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts
A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied. Choosing the panel of experts, whose expertise could be decided on various grounds, is one problem of the method; another is the questioning technique itself. Questionnaires have been used in the past; however, this method could become cumbersome. In a few years it should be possible to equip each expert with a console for feeding responses to a computer, which would then compute the group response and feed back the results. Six experiments using the Delphi method have indicated that it may prove useful in military, educational, and business planning, as a tool for forecasting future strategic, economic, or other states. Other possible applications include medical diagnostics and investment counseling.
Download Free Electronic Document
|PDF file||0.6 MB||
Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience.
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Available
- Print Format: Paperback
- Paperback Pages: 15
- List Price: $20.00
- Paperback Price: $16.00
- Document Number: P-3925
- Year: 1968
- Series: Papers
This report is part of the RAND Corporation paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.