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Another Estimate of Expected Critical Path Length in PERT Networks
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique is a well-known and widely applied method for estimating the amount of time required to complete a complex project. However, if the time required to complete each subtask is a random variable, the computation of the expected time to complete the total project may be infeasible, for reasons of dimensionality. The simplest way to estimate the expected time to complete the project is to assume each subtask takes exactly the expected time to complete; and then find a critical path. This procedure, except in very simple cases, gives an underestimate of the true expected time required. In 1962, D. R. Fulkerson published a technique which gives values between the simplest estimate and the true value. This paper suggests a technique which, while more complex than Fulkerson's, is more accurate, giving estimates which fall between his and the true expected value.
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