The Future Course of International Terrorism

by Brian Michael Jenkins

Download Free Electronic Document

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 0.7 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience.

Abstract

This paper was originally presented at the International Conference on Current Trends in World Terrorism, Tel Aviv, Israel, July 1-4, 1985. It considers the forms terrorism is likely to take in the near future, the levels of violence terrorists are likely to use, and possible changes in terrorist tactics and their choice of targets. It also considers the future role of terrorism in armed conflict, and probable developments in security measures. The author concludes that terrorism will surely persist and is likely to increase; that large-scale incidents will become more common but will not involve the use of high technology or tools of mass destruction; that terrorist tactics, targets, and weapons will be much the same as they have been; that governments will continue to exploit terrorism; and that terrorists will force governments and corporations to divert more resources toward combatting them.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.