Future Trends in International Terrorism

by Brian Michael Jenkins

Download

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 1.1 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback30 pages $20.00 $16.00 20% Web Discount

Abstract

This paper surveys likely future trends in international terrorism, considering such issues as the probability that terrorism will persist, what its potential causes will be, whether it will increase in volume and violence, and whether terrorists will change their tactics, targets, and weapons. The author concludes that terrorism will persist and increase, but does not foresee major changes in terrorist tactics or targets. Terrorist attacks will become more violent and indiscriminate, but terrorists are unlikely to threaten mass destruction. He warns that terrorism will become institutionalized as a mode of armed conflict for some, and most unfortunately, will become an accepted fact of contemporary life and therefore somehow "tolerable."

This report is part of the RAND Corporation paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.