One of a series of RAND perspectives on what the Middle East and U.S. policy might look like in "the days after a deal", this perspective begins by positing that a final nuclear agreement is reached between the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and Iran and then examines the potential responses of two of the most important U.S. partners in the region: Israel and Saudi Arabia. The authors argue that because each partner's concerns about Iran run deeper than Tehran's nuclear program, both Israel and Saudi Arabia are not likely to welcome a final agreement. On the other hand, the authors do not anticipate that Israel and Saudi Arabia will adopt their most aggressive counters to the implementation of the final agreement: for Israel a military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and for Saudi Arabia acquisition of its own nuclear deterrent. Furthermore, the authors present a range of measures the United States could employ to address the concerns of its partners and prevent destabilizing actions.
This report results from the RAND Corporation's Investment in People and Ideas program. The research was conducted jointly within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division and the Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP), part of International Programs at the RAND Corporation.
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