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Modeling Adversaries and Related Cognitive Biases
This volume collects three papers related to cognitive modeling of adversaries. The first, "Synthetic Cognitive Models of Adversaries for Effects-Based Planning," describes a top-down, theory-driven approach, its motivations, and past examples. One of its themes is the importance of having alternative models to force recognition of uncertainty. The second, "Thoughts on Higher-Level Adversary Modeling," extends the discussion and specifically addresses the need, in high-level decision support for effects-based planning, to keep such adversary models extremely simple and to use them to improve assessment of best-estimate, best-case, and worse-case outcomes for alternative courses of action. The third paper, "Judgmental Biases in Decision Support for Strike Operations," is a broad discussion of judgmental biases in decision support and efforts to mitigate those biases. The paper includes discussion of biases that affect a side's mental image or model of the adversary and gives speculative examples relevant to planning of air operations.
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Pages: 48
Originally published in: Synthetic Cognitive Models of Adversaries for Effects-Based Planning, Proceedings of SPIE: Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science, v. 4716, 2002; Thoughts on Higher-Level Adversary Modeling, Proceedings of SPIE: Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science, v. 5091, 2003; Judgmental Biases in Decision Support for Strike Operations, Proceedings of SPIE: Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science, v. 5091, 2003, pp. 1-48.
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