Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 4.6 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Without substantial investment, by 2035 the UK will experience severe congestion across its transport infrastructure. Innovate UK commissioned this study to explore how emerging technologies might be able to address the problem of congestion by using capacity more efficiently, supporting different mode choices, and managing or reducing travel demand.

This study included three broad phases. First, we identified six key technologies that a range of experts think may influence the effectiveness and efficiency of the transport network: autonomous vehicles, next-generation ICT connectivity, advanced manufacturing (such as 3D printing), user apps / Big Data and intelligent processing, the Internet of Things, and novel materials and embedded sensors in infrastructure. Next we developed future scenarios to examine the influence of these technologies on travel. Three scenarios were developed, based around activities that contribute to travel demand: work/business, health, retail, long-distance business and leisure travel, and freight movement. The scenarios are: Driving Ahead, based on higher-than-forecast economic growth and widespread use of autonomous vehicles; Live Local, with moderate growth and use of travel substitution due to advances in communications technology; and Digital Divide, in which technologies advance but are not evenly distributed because of rising income inequality. In the third phase of the study, we interviewed experts and policymakers about the key policy implications of the scenarios, what innovation investments would be robust across scenarios, and what are the barriers and enablers for each technology. Using these responses, we developed a strategic roadmap to inform future UK policies and investments.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Using future transport scenarios to identify future policy and investment needs

  • Chapter Two

    Key technologies that could influence transport efficiency in 2035

  • Chapter Three

    Three future transport scenarios

  • Chapter Four

    What do these scenarios mean for policy and innovation investment?

  • Appendix A

    Methodology for shortlisting key technologies

  • Appendix B

    Scenario methodology

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for Innovate UK and conducted by RAND Europe.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.