Three Papers in International Health Policy
Modeling the Links Between Economics and Epidemiology
The costs of disease are immense, as is the amount of resources that societies put into combating disease through treatment, prevention, and the improvement of public health systems in general. Resources could be better allocated if the behavior and spread of diseases could be predicted. However, the spread of diseases such as influenza and HIV/AIDS depends on many complex factors — including the behavior of individuals, the public and private health environments that individuals are exposed to, and the evolution of disease-causing organisms in the face of pharmaceuticals — and only very detailed and costly simulations have been able to predict their epidemiology with any certainty. This dissertation attempts to “simulate the simulations” by using desktop models that capture the intent and the dynamics of more-detailed models. The dissertation consists of three papers: The first paper discusses the benefits of linking epidemiological modeling with international health resource allocation decisions; the second and third papers examine experimental models of influenza outbreak and antiretroviral policy in the context of India. Together, the papers present a method of simulating disease that can provide policymakers with useful information for assessing the costs and benefits of various interventions in the face of uncertainty.
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Web-Only
- Pages: 185
- Document Number: RGSD-231
- Year: 2008
- Series: Dissertations
This document was submitted as a dissertation in April 2008 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of C. Richard Neu (Chair), Rob Boer, Theodore Karasik, and Steven Bankes (Carnegie Mellon University). Professor Maureen Cropper (University of Maryland) was the external reader. Financial support for this dissertation was provided by RAND's Arroyo Center and the Development Economics Research Group at the World Bank, Washington D.C.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a PRGS faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.