Document Information
Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has adopted a focused approach to risk reduction. DHS is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. This report applies a probabilistic terrorism model that is broadly applied in the insurance industry to assess risk across cities, to assess risks within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis. Among the authors’ conclusions: Terrorism risk is concentrated in a small number of cities, with most cities having negligible relative risk, so terrorism estimates such as those described in the report should be incorporated into the grant allocation assessment process. DHS should consider funding the development of city profiles of major metropolitan areas receiving DHS preparedness grants. It should also develop descriptions of terrorist attack planning and operations that can be used to translate estimates from risk models of likely attack scenarios into detailed recommendations. Finally, DHS should develop tabletop exercises to test the scenarios and provide feedback.
Support RAND Research — Buy This Product!
Paperback Cover Price: $20.00
Discounted Web Price: $18.00
Pages: 94
ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-3974-3
Special 40% savings will be applied at checkout
Free, downloadable PDF file(s) are available below.
RAND makes an electronic version of this document available for free as a public service. If you find this information valuable, please consider purchasing a paper copy of the full document to help support RAND research.
Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience.
Contents
Chapter One:
Terrorism Risk Models for the Insurance Industry: A New Resource for Intelligence Analysts
Chapter Two:
Terrorism Risk Modeling for the Insurance Industry: The RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model
Chapter Three:
Application 1: Terrorism Risk in UASI Areas
Chapter Four:
Application 2: Profiling Terrorism Risk in Las Vegas
Chapter Five:
Application 3: Informing Threat Assessment Using the RMS Terrorism Risk Model
Chapter Six:
Conclusions and Recommendations
Appendix A:
RMS Terrorism Advisors’ Network
Appendix B:
City Tiers and Likelihoods from the RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model
Appendix C:
Definitions of Fiscal Year 2005 UASI-Eligible Urban Areas
Appendix D:
Example of Filtering Risk-Analysis Results Using Intelligence Assessments of Terrorist Capabilities
The research described in this report was conducted by the RAND Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy for the Department of Homeland Security.
This product is part of the RAND Corporation technical report series. RAND technical reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope or intended for a narrow audience; present discussions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research professionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
* RAND research is conducted across divisions, centers, and projects; these organizational components are represented in the "Related RAND Divisions" section above.
Top
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2008 RAND Corporation. 