Identifying DG SANCO's Future Challenges 2009-2014

Final Report

by Tom Ling, Michael Hallsworth, Jan Tiessen, Stijn Hoorens, Lisa Klautzer, Kai Wegrich

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Abstract

In 2006, the European Commission's Directorate-General for Health and Consumer Protection (DG SANCO) embarked on a series of activities to consider the challenges it may face in 2009-2014. RAND Europe was asked to support this Future Challenges project by developing three scenarios for Europe to be set in the period 2009 to 2014, testing these scenarios in case study workshops, and identifying the issues and challenges arising from the project. This Technical Report covers the work RAND Europe carried out in relation to the project, including: a scenario briefing, a scenario development meeting, actual scenario development, and a case study workshop report. The report presents the three scenarios RAND Europe created for DG SANCO and comments on the key questions for DG SANCO to address that arose from the process. Finally, the report gives recommendations on taking the Future Challenges project further and considers some of the obstacles to the effective use of scenarios within organizations.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    The scenario briefing

  • Chapter Three

    The scenario development meeting

  • Chapter Four

    Creating the scenarios

  • Chapter Five

    The final DG SANCO scenarios

  • Chapter Six

    Case study workshops

  • Chapter Seven

    Questions and recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Key themes generated by scenario development meeting

  • Appendix B

    Thematic clusters from the scenario development meeting

  • Appendix C

    Distribution of scenarios along dimensions of uncertainty

Research conducted by

The research in this report was prepared for Unit 02 of the European Commission's Health and Consumer Protection Directorate-General and conducted by RAND Europe.

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