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This user's guide describes the Total Force Blue-Line (TFBL) model, which predicts future inventory for the Regular Air Force, Air Force Reserve, and Air National Guard and accounts for interactions among them. This guide contains detailed instructions for running the model, including steps to follow, the inputs to use, how the inputs can be generated, and a list of steps for generating red-line/blue-line charts. It also provides an overview of the TFBL model and the logic behind it; descriptions of additional excursions, including a discussion of major airline hiring excursions and the impact of major airline hiring on the Air Force Total Force blue-line projections; and detailed and specific information on the input data and the output files. Finally, the appendix contains an exhaustive list of all versions of data created or used in all previous model runs for completeness and for reproducibility.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction to the Total Force Blue-Line Model

  • Chapter Two

    Running the Total Force Blue-Line Model

  • Chapter Three

    High-Level Model Description

  • Chapter Four

    Modeling Total Force Blue-Line Excursions

  • Chapter Five

    Model Inputs and Code Versions

  • Chapter Six

    Model Outputs

  • Appendix A

    Model Components

The research reported here was sponsored by the Air Force Director of Future Operations (AF/A3X) and Director of Military Force Management Policy (AF/A1P) and conducted by the Manpower, Personnel, and Training and Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE.

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